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1.
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of the Bank of Japan's official interventions on the JPY/USD parity during the period 1992–2004. The novelty of our approach is to combine two recent advances of the empirical literature on foreign exchange interventions: (i) drawing on over-the-counter option prices to characterize more precisely the distribution of market expectations; (ii) redefining interventions in terms of events as they tend to come in clusters. Moreover, in order to deal with the features of the data (small sample size, non-standard distribution), we use bootstrap tests.We show that interventions have a significant impact on the mean expectation (the forward rate). The results are more ambiguous for variance. Additionally, we find that the effect of interventions on skewness is significant, robust to different definitions of skewness, and consistent with the direction of interventions. On the contrary, our results clearly show that kurtosis is not affected by interventions. We finally show that: (i) coordination increases effectiveness of interventions; (ii) results are not altered when controlling for other economic and political news. 相似文献
2.
This paper begins by documenting the extent to which the predictions of standard Real Business Cycle (RBC) models are incompatible with observed movements in real interest rates. The main finding of the paper is that extending the baseline model to include habit persistence in consumption and adjustment costs to capital significantly improves the model's empirical performance. In our evaluation of the model's performance, we take special care of estimating and testing predictions of the model using both moments drawn directly from the data and moments calculated after identifying shocks to the stochastic trend. 相似文献
3.
Summary. This paper studies monotone risk aversion, the aversion to monotone, mean-preserving increase in risk (Quiggin [21]), in the Rank Dependent Expected Utility (RDEU) model. This model replaces expected utility by another functional, characterized by two functions, a utility function u in conjunction with a probability-perception function f. Monotone mean-preserving increases in risk are closely related to the notion of comparative
dispersion introduced by Bickel and Lehmann [3,4] in Non-parametric Statistics. We present a characterization of the pairs (u,f) of monotone risk averse decision makers, based on an index of greediness
G
u
of the utility function u and an index of pessimism
P
f
of the probability perception function f: the decision maker is monotone risk averse if and only if
. The index of greediness (non-concavity) of u is the supremum of
taken over
. The index of pessimism of f is the infimum of
taken over 0 < v < 1. Thus,
, with G
u
= 1 iff u is concave. If
then
, i.e., f is majorized by the identity function. Since P
f
= 1 for Expected Utility maximizers,
forces u to be concave in this case; thus, the characterization of risk aversion as
is a direct generalization from EU to RDEU. A novel element is that concavity of u is not necessary. In fact, u must be concave only if P
f
= 1.Received: 10 April 2001, Revised: 18 November 2003, JEL Classification Numbers:
D81.
Correspondence to: Michéle CohenAlain Chateauneuf, Michéle Cohen, Isaac Meilijson: We are most grateful to Mark Machina, Peter Wakker and two anonymous referees for very helpful suggestions and comments. 相似文献
4.
5.
Joïlle Noailly Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh Cees A. Withagen 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2003,13(2):183-200
Abstract. Economic theories of managing renewable resources, such as fisheries and forestry, traditionally assume that individual harvesters
are perfectly rational and thus able to compute the harvesting strategy that maximizes their discounted profits. The current
paper presents an alternative approach based on bounded rationality and evolutionary mechanisms. It is assumed that individual
harvesters face a choice between two harvesting strategies. The evolution of the distribution of strategies in the population
is modeled through a replicator dynamics equation. The latter captures the idea that strategies yielding above average profits
are demanded more than strategies yielding below average profits, so that the first type ends up accounting for a larger part
in the population. From a mathematical perspective, the combination of resource and evolutionary processes leads to complex
dynamics. The paper presents the existence and stability conditions for each steady-state of the system and analyzes dynamic
paths to the equilibrium. In addition, effects of changes in prices are analyzed. A main result of the paper is that under
certain conditions both strategies can survive in the long-run.
Correspondence to: J. Noailly 相似文献
6.
Summary. We show, in the Choquet expected utility model, that preference for diversification, that is, convex preferences, is equivalent
to a concave utility index and a convex capacity. We then introduce a weaker notion of diversification, namely “sure diversification.”
We show that this implies that the core of the capacity is non-empty. The converse holds under concavity of the utility index,
which is itself equivalent to the notion of comonotone diversification, that we introduce. In an Anscombe-Aumann setting,
preference for diversification is equivalent to convexity of the capacity and preference for sure diversification is equivalent
to non-empty core. In the expected utility model, all these notions of diversification are equivalent and are represented
by the concavity of the utility index.
Received: July 27, 1999; revised version: November 7, 2000 相似文献
7.
The paper presents some results concerning the averaging approach in a general linear regression model in one dimension under suitable conditions about the martingale structure of errors. At first asymptotics of the primary and averaged estimators are discussed. Then it is shown that variances of estimators can be consistently estimated by appropriate integrated squared deviations functionals. Finally applications to the construction of confidence regions are considered. 相似文献
8.
Summary This paper investigates the dynamical properties of optimal paths in one-sector overlapping generations models without assuming that the utility function of the representative agent is separable. When the utility function is separable, the optimal growth paths monotonically converges toward the modified golden rule steady state. In the non-separable case, we show that the optimal growth path may be oscillating and optimal two-period cycles may exist. Applying these results to the model with altruism, we show that the condition of operative bequest is fully compatible with endogeneous fluctuations provided that the discount factor is close enough to one. All our results are illustrated using Cobb-Douglas utility and production functions.We thank C. Blackorby, J. Blot, P. Cartigny and one anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions which generally improved the exposition of the paper. We would also like to thank the participants of the Population and demography session of the European Economic Association 10th Annual Congress (Prague, The Czech Republic, September 1–4, 1995). 相似文献
9.
In this paper, we examine irreversible investment decisions in duopoly games with a variable economic climate. Integrating timing flexibility, competition, and changes in the economic environment in the form of a cash flow process with regime switching, the problem is formulated as a stopping‐time game under Stackelberg leader‐follower competition, in which both players determine their respective optimal market entry time. By extending the variational inequality approach, we solve for the free boundaries and obtain optimal investment strategies for each player. Despite the lack of regularity in the leader's obstacle and the cash flow regime uncertainty, the regime‐dependent optimal policies for both the leader and the follower are obtained. In addition, we perform comprehensive numerical experiments to demonstrate the properties of solutions and to gain insights into the implications of regime switching. 相似文献
10.
In order to aid organisations in the adoption of enterprise architecture (EA) best practices, maturity models have been proposed in the literature. These models offer organisational roadmaps and assessment frameworks for increasing EA maturity. However, key questions concerning the implied meaning of the term maturity in the context of these models have been left unexplored by previous research. This research, aided by the field of organisational learning, offers new insights into the implied assumptions of current EA maturity models and offers initial concepts and constructs to guide the conceptualisation, construction and refinement of enterprise maturity models. 相似文献