ARAB-ISRAELI POTENTIAL TRADE: THE ROLE OF INPUT SHARING

In this article we sought to develop a methodology for estimating the level and composition of potential trade between Israel and its Arab neighbors. The need for such a methodology derives from the fact that the existing trade of these countries with the rest of the world constitutes an insufficient basis for predicting bilateral trade patterns between them. Trade based on input sharing can be an important source of ''new trade'' that is, trade that is not necessarily related to goods and services currently traded by the countries in question. New trade based on input sharing pertains to the imports by Arab countries of inputs in which Israel has a proven comparative advantage, and to imports by Israel of inputs produced in Arab countries in which the latter have a proven comparative advantage. It stands to reason that branches characterized by comparative advantage in the exporting country can improve the competitive position of the import ing country, when incorporated in the latter's final products. The analysis confirms that in agricultural produce, food products, and certain sub-branches of the textiles and clothing industry, Jordan, Syria, and Egypt all appear to be potential suppliers to Israel. Inter alia, the results show that the Israeli import potential of inputs from Jordan appears to be both larger and more evenly distributed among the different branches than the import potential from Syria and even from Egypt. This finding does not accord with expectations in view of the fact that Jordan has a smaller population and a lower gross domestic product than either Egypt or Syria. Jordan stands out in that its construction industry, including ceramic products, nonmetallic minerals, and structural metals, are also potential suppliers. The methodology developed in this article specifically concerns potential trade between Israel and its Arab neighbors. It can be usefully employed in other situations where trade between pairs of countries is either nonexistent or severely distorted by political or other factors. Examples which come to mind include trade between countries which in the past belonged to the Soviet bloc, or trade between these countries and the rest of the world. In such cases it is improper to base one's trade predictions on the countries' existing trading patterns. New trade, which can be very substantial, and which may have a very different composition from current trade of the parties concerned, must be added to the equation. The methodology demonstrated in this article can be easily adapted for this purpose.     

A Note on Farmers' Retirement and Succession Considerations: Evidence from a Household Survey

Retirement and succession considerations of family farm operators in Maryland are considered in this paper. Retirement decisions are found to be mainly determined by personal considerations, and only secondary importance is given to succession considerations. However, the relative importance of succession considerations is positively related to the importance of the farm enterprise relative to other income-generating activities of the family. The conclusion is that retirement and succession decisions in family farms are not separable.     

Sales demands on securities brokers

Measurement and prediction of salesmen's performance are perennial interests of marketing researchers [1, 5, 6]. The question of the criteria used to evaluate salesmen and the relationship between these criteria and the salesmen's career cycle, however, has yet to be systematically analyzed [4, 10]. The salesman's role includes several tasks, some of which impose conflicting demands upon him. This article explores the implications of conflicting demands on the performance of the role of a salesman, and considers their affect on his career path.     

Farmers' time allocation between farm work and off-farm work and the importance of unobserved group effects: evidence from Israeli cooperatives

Agricultural cooperatives differ in many attributes which affect members' farm and off-farm earnings in different ways. As a result, time allocation patterns between farm work and off-farm work will vary significantly across cooperatives. Participation equations in farm work and off-farm work of farmers who are members of Israeli moshavim are estimated jointly, including a cooperative-specific factor in each equation. The fixed effects are found to be significant and important, but can be only partly explained by observed cooperative attributes. This provides another support to the Monte Carlo results of Borjas and Sueyoshi, that controlling for group effects is superior to alternative models. The results also imply that unobserved factors have considerable effects on farmers' time allocation, and hence should be controlled for whenever possible.     

Do family farms really converge to a uniform size? The role of unobserved farm efficiency*

We analyse the growth of family farms in Israeli cooperative villages during a period of economic turmoil. We use instrumental variables to account for the endogeneity of initial farm size, and correct for selectivity as a result of farm survival. We also include a technical efficiency index, derived from the estimation of a stochastic frontier production model, as an explanatory variable. Our aim is to check whether ignoring efficiency could have been the reason for convergence results obtained elsewhere in the literature. We found that technical efficiency is an important determinant of farm growth, and that not controlling for technical efficiency could seriously bias the results. In particular, larger farms are found to grow faster over time, while without controlling for technical efficiency the farm growth process seemed to be independent of initial farm size. The increasing polarisation of farm sizes in Israel has ramifications for the inefficiencies induced by the historical quota system, for the political power of the farm sector and for the social stability of farm communities.     

A Test of the Advertising Life-cycle Theory

New evidence is presented that lends support to Steiner's advertising life-cycle theory.     

Family Composition and Off-Farm Participation Decisions in Israeli Farm Households

This article studies the relationship between the off-farm participation behavior of farm operators and their spouses and the demographic composition of the household. We focus on farm families without parents, siblings or partners, and examine the effects of the existence of elderly children of the farm couple. We find that both the father and the mother tend to reduce their participation in off-farm work as the number of elderly children rises. This result holds even after controlling for observed characteristics. We also find that the effect of elderly children stems from considerations related to both farm production and household production.     

PARTICIPATION OF FARM OWNERS IN FARM AND OFF-FARM WORK INCLUDING THE OPTION OF FULL-TIME OFF-FARM WORK

The option of working full-time off the farm is generally neglected in farmers' time allocation studies. In this paper, a generalised multinomial logit model, in which the choices are working only on the farm, allocating the time between farm and off-farm work, or working only off-farm, is estimated using Israeli data. The results show that the explanatory variables have significantly different effects on utility for off-farm workers who also work on the farm versus those who do not. There seem to be incentives to work full time rather than part time off the farm. These conclusions cannot be reached if farm owners who do not work on the farm are excluded from the estimation. The conclusions imply that policy intended to encourage pluriactivity could instead result in increased specialisation in full-time farm work or full-time off-farm work if it does not target the right incentives.