经济带:新发展阶段的新愿景

经济带已成为承东启西、连南贯北的"经济主骨架",在国民经济整体格局中的战略地位日益凸显,对我国经济发展具有重大战略意义.经济带的形成有其深刻的理论基础和现实条件,我国"两横"——长江经济带和陇海兰新经济带,以及"三纵"——沿海经济带、京广京哈经济带、包昆经济带五条经济带,需要进一步集聚经济要素,破除要素流动壁垒,提升节点城市能级,推动区域经济合作,以经济带建设推动我国经济高质量发展.     

Monitoring the foreign exchange rate benchmark fix

ABSTRACT

We develop a Manipulation Index (ManIx) that captures the potential manipulation intention of dealers during the World Markets/Reuters (WMR) benchmark (London Close) period at 4 pm London time through a unique algorithm and simulation. The application of this model (using a dataset with dealers’ identities) can identify banks that are prone to potential manipulative behavior. The results concerning the identified banks are validated by the regulatory investigations. Implementation of this algorithm allows regulators better direct their limited resources towards more targeted in-depth investigation.     

中国高端装备制造业自主技术创新效率稳定性及影响因素研究

在全面实施创新驱动发展战略的时代背景下，揭示中国高端装备制造业自主技术创新效率稳定性，测度相关因素的影响强度与方向，对揭示中国高端装备制造业自主技术创新规律，制定其发展策略具有重要指导意义。聚焦中国高端装备制造业自主技术创新效率稳定性及影响因素，采用DEA-Malmquist指数方法和Tobit回归模型进行实证研究，结果表明，中国高端装备制造业自主技术创新效率存在一定波动性，且各细分行业技术创新效率内部稳定性较差，产业自主技术创新效率整体稳定性不高；自主技术创新投入因素和环境影响因素对产业自主技术创新效率的影响具有较高的异质性，其中创新资金投入和人力资源投入对自主技术创新综合效率、纯技术效率及规模效率具有正向影响，而新产品开发投入和企业规模对自主技术创新综合效率、纯技术效率和规模效率的影响具有异质性，政策因素与市场因素分别具有显著和非显著负向影响，外源性创新因素具有显著正向影响，且影响强度较大。在此基础上，提出调整政府对高端装备制造业创新支持模式、加强外源性创新与智力引进等策略建议。     

INTERNATIONAL RESERVE MANAGEMENT: A DRIFT‐SWITCHING REFLECTED JUMP‐DIFFUSION MODEL

We study the cost of shocks, that is, jump risk, with respect to reserve management when the reserve process is formulated as a drift‐switching jump diffusion with a reflecting barrier at 0. Inspired by the Brownian drift switching model, our model results in a more realistic dynamic behavior of international reserves than the buffer stock model. The new model can capture both the jump behavior in reserve dynamics and the leptokurtic feature of the increment distribution which has a higher peak and two asymmetric heavier tails than the normal distribution. Through the selection of an initial distribution that reflects certain steady state behaviors, the reserve process becomes a regenerative process. This selection enables us to derive a closed‐form expression for the total expected discounted cost of managing reserves, thus helping us to numerically find management strategies that minimize costs. The numerical results show that shocks at the reserve level have a significant effect on reserve management strategies and that model misspecification can result in nonnegligible additional costs.     

Machine Learning and Expert Judgement: Analyzing Emerging Topics in Accounting and Finance Research in the Asia–Pacific

In this paper, we focus on the question to what extent machine learning (ML) tools can be used to support systematic literature reviews. We apply a ML approach for topic detection to analyze emerging topics in the literature—our context is accounting and finance research in the Asia–Pacific region. To evaluate the robustness of the approach, we compare findings from the automated ML approach with the results from a manual analysis of the literature. The automated approach uses a keyword algorithm detection mechanism whereby the manual analysis uses common techniques for qualitative data analysis, that is, triangulation between researchers (expert judgement). From our paper, we conclude that both methods have strengths and weaknesses. The automated analysis works well for large corpora of text and provides a very standardized and non-biased way of analyzing the literature. However, the human researcher is potentially better equipped to evaluate current issues and future trends in the literature. Overall, the best results might be achieved when a variety of tools are used together.     

改善投资与消费关系的宏观思考

近年来,我国投资和消费关系不协调问题日益突出。当前,投资率接近改革开放以来最高点,而消费率则降为1978年以来的最低水平,并已连续5年下降。持续50多年的投资主导型发展模式,对消费增长形成了抑制,使城乡居民生活条件改善受到影响,有悖于以人为本的科学发展观的宗旨,也导致我国国民经济的粗放型发展,加重了我国资源消耗、能源紧缺、环境污染和生态破坏;增强了经济增长对出口的严重依赖,加大了经济运行的风险,也造成银行呆坏账增加、金融风险加大、城乡差距扩大、劳动就业困难等经济和社会问题,使经济社会的稳定、协调和持续发展面临威胁,…     

“三国演义”，麈战纺织

9月5日中国与欧盟经过长达48小时的唇枪舌战，终于达成协议，圆满解决了中欧纺织品贸易的滞港争端。9月1日紧急进行的中美纺织品第四轮磋商依然未果，“拉锯战”被拖至9月下旬，而且前途未卜，恰似给美国造成巨大损失的“卡特里娜”飓风，近期内依然“挥之不去”，令业内人士揪心。     

论废旧家电回收利用主体的责任--《废旧家电及电子产品回收处理管理条例》(征求意见稿)之评析

废旧家电的回收利用、再商品化已经成为世界的潮流，国外许多国家相继通过法律来引导并建立完善的废旧家电回收利用体系。我国新近出台的《废旧家电及电子产品回收处理管理条例》(征求意见稿)也对回收利用行为进行了规范。要想建立并完善废旧家电的回收利用体系．就必须明确各责任主体包括生产者、销售商、进口商、消费者，在废旧家电回收利用中所应承担的责任。通过对国外立法的比较分析，以及对《征求意见稿》中关于废旧家电回收主体承担责任有关规定的评析，在对该征求意见稿肯定的同时，提出包括消费者付费、责任比例细化等建议。     

基于RFID技术的末端产品信息管理研究

对末端产品的处理一直是学术界关注的问题，文章将RFID技术引入末端产品的物流信息管理，跟踪产品的整个生命周期，记录产品维修、报废、更换等信息，这些信息将减少末端产品的检测环节并有助于末端产品处理方法决策的制定，从而提高末端产品物流的效率。     

外理公司拓展东疆港区理货服务业务的分析和探索

在东疆港区开展理货服务相关业务的设想是在国务院《关于推进天津滨海新区开发开放有关问题的意见》中关于“推动天津滨海新区进一步扩大开放。设立天津东疆保税港区”精神的激励下提出的。总面积达30平方公里的东疆港区的开发建设，为天津外理公司主动适应天津港加快发展的要求，满足港口功能的拓展和客户多方位的需求，加快自身发展创造了难得的历史机遇。