Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.     

政策要闻

原油、成品油进出口配额 将由商务部对外贸易司统管 国务院机构改革以后,我国原油、成品油、化肥等能源产品的进出口配额、进出口权等将全部划归新成立的商务部对外贸易司统一管理。国务院办公厅已发出通知,明确了商务部的14项主要职责,其中第四条为:“研究制定进口商品管理办法和进出口配额计划,确定配额、发放许可证;拟订和执行进出口商品配额招标政策。”     

Fiscal decentralization, revenue and expenditure assignments, and growth in China

Theory suggests that a close match between revenue and expenditure assignments at sub-national levels benefits allocative efficiency, and hence economic growth. That is, a convergence of revenue and expenditure assignments at sub-national levels of government should, according to the theory, be positively associated with a higher growth rate. In the case of China, this paper shows, divergence, rather than convergence, in revenue and expenditures at the sub-national level of government is associated with higher rates of growth. A panel dataset for 30 provinces in China is used to examine the relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth over two phases of fiscal decentralization in China: (1) 1979–1993 under the fiscal contract system, and (2) 1994–1999 under the tax assignment system. The seeming contradiction between the theory and evidence in the China case is reconciled by taking into account the institutional arrangements that prevailed during the two phases of fiscal decentralization, in particular the inconsistency between the assumptions of the theory of fiscal decentralization and the institutional reality of China.     

关于企业质量管理发展阶段的探讨

1 引言　　 从传统的质量控制（QC）、全面质量控制（TQC）、全面质量管理（TQM）到ISO 9000认证,许多企业的质量管理已达到较高水平,但质量水平应该达到何种程度,却缺少明确目标;企业之间的质量水平如何客观地加以比较,也缺少统一的标准.当前,在进行ISO 9000质量认证的同时,国内外许多企业都非常重视企业质量管理水平的自我评估和第三方等级评定.     

刍议馆长的非权力影响力

馆长对图书馆的事业发展至关重要.探讨了图书馆馆长治理图书馆的非权力影响力,即指依靠馆长自身的素养,即德、才、仁、情等因素,使馆长更具向心力、凝聚力,从而推动图书馆工作的有效地运作,促进图书馆事业的蓬勃发展.     

探索校企结合的保险教育新途径

近年来,我国保险业发展很快,亟需高素质的一线人才,单纯依靠学校培养或企业培训均有其局限性.根据我国目前实际情况,可从培养人才的源头抓起,整合保险教育资源,形成以学校培养为主,企业培训为辅,学界与业界融合这种方式来解决保险教育与市场脱节的问题,建立校企合作的人才培养途径.     

试论建立存款保险制度的重要性

随着金融改革的大步深入和WTO的加入，我国银行业的经营环境将发生很大变化，对此，有效的“存款保险制度”的建立，将对构筑一个安全性和效率性并存在的金融体系发挥出其积极的作用。     

永乐家电能否“永乐”京城

上海家电连锁大鄂永乐家电在经过两年筹划之后于6月18日正式登陆北京．开设了在北京的第一家店。永乐家电董事长陈晓说：“如果不拿下北京与广东的市场，永乐就谈不上是全国性的连锁。“陈晓的这番话让我们看出永乐进入北京的决心，但永乐究竟是“永乐”京城还是永乐自身，是包括像国美、苏宁这样大的家电连锁企业所共同关心的问题。     

Discussion of “The Role of Expectations in Explaining the Cross-Section of Stock Returns”

This paper discusses Copeland et al. (2004), which empirically investigates the role of changes in expectations in explaining contemporaneous cross-sectional stock returns. Because the main results in this study are largely confirmatory of results reported in prior literature, my discussion emphasizes conceptual issues in the econometric specification of earnings–return relations. I derive three versions of return specifications from popular valuation models based on residual earnings, free cash flows, or earnings growth, and contrast them with that adopted by Copeland et al. (2004). This analysis suggests that firmer grounding in theory would help the paper in empirical specifications as well as interpretations of results.     

网络环境下博物馆信息资源的采集策略

博物馆信息资源建设是博物馆信息化建设的重要组成部分。网络环境下的博物馆信息资源建设除了传统的藏品资源建设以外,还包括文献信息资源建设和网络信息资源建设等。针对不同的信息资源类型,采取不同的采集策略。时博物馆藏品档案信息,输入要完整、处理要规范、输出要主动,充分揭示藏品的文化内涵及实现其科技信息价值;对博物馆文献信息资源要拓宽进书渠道,实行采购方式多样化,重视数据库及灰色文献;充分挖掘网络信息资源,开展共建共享,全面提升文献信息保障能力。