Media-Based Sentiment Indices as an Alternative Measure of Consumer Confidence

In this paper, we consider the feasibility of constructing online sentiment indices, using large amounts of media data, as an alternative to the conventional survey method used to create the consumer confidence index in South Africa. A clustering framework is adopted to provide an indication of possible candidate sentiment indices constructed from a combination of different text sources and dictionaries that best mimic the traditional survey-based consumer confidence index from the South African Bureau for Economic Research (BER). The results conclude that it is possible to create an index using sentiment analysis using online editorial data that does resemble the BER’s consumer confidence index. The different media-based sentiment indices (MSI) show a significant level of correlation and co-movement with the BER’s CCI. Impulse responses and cross-correlation functions indicate that the MSI could potentially lead the survey-based method up to two quarters. Furthermore, Granger-causality tests show that the media-based indices are good predictors of future consumer confidence index values. The results provide motivation for further study on the use of sentiment-based techniques and online media data sources to track consumer confidence within an emerging market such as South Africa.     

Intraday Lead-Lag Relationships Between the Futures-, Options and Stock Market

In rational, efficiently functioning and complete markets, returns on derivative and underlying securities should be perfectly contemporaneously correlated. Due to market imperfections, one of these markets may reflect information faster. The use of high-frequency data and the choice for a small unit time interval to measure these lead-lag relations comes at the cost of some or many missing observations, causing traditional estimators to either under- or overestimate covariances and correlations. We use a new estimator to estimate lead-lag relationships between the cash AEX index, options and futures. We find that futures returns lead both options and cash index returns by approximately 10 minutes. The relationship between options and the cash market is not completely unidirectional.     

Spouses' materialism: Effects of parenthood status,personality type,and sex

This study responds to a call for broadened conceptualizations of materialism and its role in self-definition (Richins & Dawson, 1992). Data from 202 spouses were analyzed for relationships among materialism, parenthood status, and personality type, defined as spousal warmness or coolness (Csikszentmihalyi & Rochberg-Halton, 1981). Testable hypotheses were based on the concept of object-subject interchangeability (Claxton & Murray, 1994) as a mechanism of self-definition. The hypothesis was supported that cool spouses without children would have the highest materialism score. Total sample materialism scores were related to parenthood status and to several interactions among parenthood status, personality type, and sex of respondent. Analyzed by sex of respondent, men's materialism scores were related to parenthood status and to the interaction between parenthood status and personality type. Women's materialism scores were not related to any independent variables or interactions. Consumer policy implications are discussed.

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Zusammenfassung Materialismus von Ehegatten: Effekte von Elternschaft, Persönlichkeitstyp und Geschlecht Die Studie reagiert auf die Forderung nach einer breiteren Konzeptualisierung der Materialismus-Variable und der Rolle von Materialismus bei der Selbst-Definition. Die Daten stammen von 202 Ehegatten und wurden auf die Beziehungen hin analysiert, die zwischen Materialismus, Elternschaft und Persönlichkeitstyp (definiert als eheliche WÄrme und eheliche Nüchternheit) bestehen. Die Hypothesen basieren auf dem Konzept der Objekt-Subjekt-Austauschbarkeit als Mechanismus der Selbst-Definition. BestÄtigt wurde die Hypothese, da\ nüchterne Ehegatten ohne Kinder den höchsten Materialismuswert haben. Insgesamt waren die Materialismuswerte abhÄngig von der Variable Elternschaft und von mehreren Wechselwirkungen zwischen Elternschaft, Persönlichkeitstyp und Geschlecht des Antwortenden. Eine geschlechtsspezifische Analyse zeigt, da\ die Materialismuswerte der MÄnner mit Elternschaft und mit der Wechselwirkung zwischen Elternschaft und Persönlichkeitstyp verbunden sind. Bei den Materialismuswerten der Frauen zeigte sich keine Beziehung zu einer der unabhÄngigen Variablen oder den Wechselwirkungen. Der Beitrag schlie\t mit einigen verbraucherpolitischen Implikationen.

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The study is based on the first author's dissertation. The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance of a 1993 summer research grant from East Carolina University, and the reviewers' helpful comments.     

Human Resources Practices as Predictors of Work-Family Outcomes and Employee Turnover

Drawing on a nonrandom sample of 557 dual-earner white-collar employees, this article explores the relationship between human resources practices and three outcomes of interest to firms and employees: work-family conflict, employees' control over managing work and family demands, and employees' turnover intentions. We analyze three types of human resources practices: work-family policies, human resources incentives designed to induce attachment to the firm, and the design of work. In a series of hierarchical regression equations, we find that work design characteristics explain the most variance in employees' control over managing work and family demands, whereas human resources incentives explain the most variance in work-family conflict and turnover intentions. We also find significant gender differences in each of the three models. Our results suggest that the most effective organizational responses to work-family conflict and to turnover are those that combine work-family policies with other human resources practices, including work redesign and commitment-enhancing incentives.     

Nowcasting South African gross domestic product using a suite of statistical models

Given lags in the release of data, a central bank must ‘nowcast’ current gross domestic product (GDP) using available quarterly or higher frequency data to understand the current state of economic activity. This paper uses various statistical modelling techniques to draw on a large number of series to nowcast South African GDP. We also show that GDP volatility has increased markedly over the last 5 years, making GDP forecasting more difficult. We show that all the models developed, as well as the Reserve Bank's official forecasts, have tended to overestimate GDP growth over this period. However, several of the statistical nowcasting models we present in this paper provide competitive nowcasts relative to the official Reserve Bank and market analysts' nowcasts.     

Auditing Goodwill in the Post‐Amortization Era: Challenges for Auditors

The elimination of goodwill amortization in 2001 brought about significant change in how companies are required to account for goodwill. This change in accounting also brought with it new challenges for auditors, namely evaluating the reasonableness of management's assumptions related to goodwill valuation. In addition to introducing technical challenges, this task is particularly difficult given the misalignment in incentives it creates between managers who likely prefer to avoid recording an impairment and auditors who seek to minimize the bias in management's impairment testing. This study focuses on the consequences of the misaligned incentives that auditors face under the current goodwill assessment process. We find that the decision to record a goodwill impairment is associated with an increase in the probability of auditor dismissal. Consistent with the presence of significant friction with clients, our results also indicate that the likelihood of auditor dismissals is negatively related to the favorability of the impairment decision. Furthermore, we find that companies impairing goodwill prior to dismissing auditors subsequently employ auditors that are, on average, more favorable to clients in their impairment decisions.     

Impact of Auditor Report Changes on Financial Reporting Quality and Audit Costs: Evidence from the United Kingdom

While substantial revisions to auditor reporting requirements are being implemented internationally, the impact of these reforms on financial reporting quality is unknown. We exploit the United Kingdom's recent auditor reporting changes and find that the United Kingdom's new reporting regime is associated with an improvement in financial reporting quality as proxied by significant decreases in absolute abnormal accruals and the propensity to just meet or beat analyst forecasts, and a significant increase in earnings response coefficients. As for audit costs, we do not find a significant change in audit fees or audit delay surrounding the implementation of the new reporting regime. Taken together, the results of this study suggest that new auditor reporting requirements are associated with a significant improvement in financial reporting quality without detecting a significant increase in audit costs.     

A fresh look at the contribution of project management to organizational performance

A better understanding of organizational performance and the contribution that project management can make is the aim. The article adopts the “Competing Values Framework,” a rich framework that is well established both theoretically and empirically but is not well known in the field of project management. The framework is summarized and applied in an empirical investigation of the contribution of project management in general and project management offices (PMOs) in particular to organizational performance. The examination of 11 case studies revealed multiple concurrent and sometimes paradoxical perspectives. The criteria proposed by the framework have been further developed through the identification of a preliminary set of empirically grounded performance indicators. The empirical results contribute to a better understanding of the role of project management generally and PMOs specifically. They also demonstrate the usefulness of this framework for the study of project management's contribution to organizational performance.     

Exploring PMOs through community of practice theory

This article explores project management offices (PMOs) through community of practice theory. Preliminary results from a national health care case study are used to confirm the legitimacy of this approach. Today's knowledge‐based economy calls for mechanisms to share knowledge. The issue of making more with less is at stake in order to reuse good practices, support innovative practice, and prevent the reinvention of the wheel. Members of these communities are at the heart of the learning process. The originality of this research is that it sheds light on PMOs in a new theoretical perspective within the field of knowledge management.     

Decision support for firm performance by real options analytics

This paper develops a real options decision support tool for raising the performance of the firm. It shows how entrepreneurs can use our intuitive tool quickly to assess the nature and type of action required for improved performance. This exploits our estimated econometric relationship between precipitators of entrepreneurial opportunities, time until exercise, and firm performance. Our 3D chromaticity plots show how staging investments, investment time, and firm performance support entrepreneurial decisions to embed, or to expedite, investments. Speedy entrepreneurial action is securely supported with this tool, without expertise in econometric estimation or in formulae for real options valuation.