Investment-specific technological change and growth accounting

Greenwood et al. [1997. Long-run implications of investment-specific technological change. American Economic Review 87(3), 342-362; and 2000. The role of investment-specific technological change in the business cycle. European Economic Review 44, 91-115] and Hercowitz [1998. The ‘embodiment’ controversy: a review essay. Journal of Monetary Economics 41, 217-224] have claimed that the Jorgenson form of growth accounting is conceptually flawed and severely understates the importance of technological progress embodied in new capital goods for explaining growth. To the contrary, this paper shows that in its technology aspects their model is a special case of the Jorgensonian growth accounting model. What they call investment-specific technological change is shown to be closely related to the more familiar concept of total factor productivity (TFP) growth: statements about the one can be translated into statements about the other. Empirically, differences between their conclusions and those of growth accounting studies about the extent to which embodiment explains US economic growth are found to relate more to data than to methodology.     

Chain indices of the cost-of-living and the path-dependence problem: An empirical solution

This paper proposes a new method for estimating true cost-of-living (Konüs) indices, for large numbers of commodities, using data only on prices, aggregate budget shares and aggregate expenditure. Conventional chain indices are path-dependent unless income elasticities are (implausibly) all equal to 1. The method allows this difficulty to be overcome. I show that to estimate a Konüs index, only income and not price elasticities are required. The method is applied to estimate a Konüs price index for 70 products covering nearly all the UK's Retail Prices Index over 1974–2004, using the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System. The choice of base year for utility has a significant effect on the index.     

International Comparisons of Labour Productivity in Transport and Communications: The US,the UK and Germany

We construct benchmark estimates of labour productivity covering the transport and communications sectors for the US, UK and Germany for 1992 and 1993. The US lead is substantial in rail and trucking, even after adjusting for differences in stage length, but Britain leads in air transport and all three countries have similar productivity levels in local transport. In telecommunications and postal services the US enjoys a large lead over both the UK and Germany. We compare these estimates based on industry data with ones derived from the national accounts and find them similar in communications but not in transport. For 1973–96, and also 1989–96, productivity was growing slower in the US, hence some of the gap has been closed.     

Market Services: Productivity Benchmarks for the UK

This paper presents comparisons of labour productivity (value added per hour worked) in market services for the UK, the US, France and Germany in 1993. Market services, defined as (1) Distribution, Hotels and Catering, (2) Transport and Communications and (3) Finance, Insurance and Real Estate, make up 34–43 percent of total employment in the four countries. For productivity in market services overall, the US led the UK by 35 percent in 1993, Germany led the UK by 34 percent and France led the UK by 36 percent. The UK productivity shortfall vis-à-vis Germany and France was wider in market services than in manufacturing.     

Competition and the dispersion of labour productivity amongst UK companies

Based on a sample of 140,000 UK companies over the period 1989–93,this paper finds a wide dispersion of labour productivity acrossfirms. Some dispersion is transitory: amongst surviving companiesthere is regression towards the mean and dispersion faDs overtime. However, there are tignifimnt differences between sectorsin the extent of dispersion, eg. in manufacturing it is around40% lower. A possible explanation is greater competition inmanufacturing. A role for competition is also suggested by thefinding that surviving companies which were initially belowthe mean improve their performance more rapidly than those initiallyabove the mean.     

Productivity Versus Welfare; Or GDP Versus Weitzman's NDP

While GDP is the appropriate measure of output, I argue that Weitzman's NDP (WNDP)—nominal net domestic product deflated by the price of consumption—is the appropriate measure of welfare. Total factor productivity (TFP) growth measures the shift in the GDP frontier, and there is an analogous concept for WNDP, which I call total factor welfare (TFW) growth. I calculate and compare WNDP and GDP, and TFP and TFW, for the United States in the 1990s. I find that the acceleration of WNDP post 1995 was as great as that of GDP, even though the aggregate depreciation rate was rising.     

Explaining aggregate investment in Britain: The importance of Tobin's Q

This note reports on work done in testing Tobin's ‘Q’ theory of investment on British data. Investment by industrial and commercial companies over 1960–1977 was studied. Q was found to be both significant and important, outperforming other plausible variables.     

Galtonian Regression, Company Age and Job Generation 1986–95

We study the growth of employment at the company level using a very large database of company accounts. More than 31 000 independent companies were studied over 1986–95, though we concentrate on the 8 103 companies which survived throughout the period. We find that smaller companies grew relatively to larger ones in each of the cyclical phases studied, 1986–89, 1989–92 and 1993–95. But their advantage diminished steadily. Despite the negative effect of size on employment growth, and downsizing amongst the largest companies, over half the net new jobs created in survivors were in companies with more than 500 employees.