Capital markets integration, growth and income distribution

The paper considers a two-country model of overlapping generation heterogenous economies with intergenerational transfers carried out in the form of bequest and investment in human capital. We examine in competitive equilibrium the transitory and long-run effects of capital markets integration. First, we explore how the regime of public education affects the dynamics of the integrated economy. Second, we study the effects of capital markets integration, in equilibrium, on the intragenerational income distribution in both the host and investing country.     

ANTIDUMPING,INTRA‐INDUSTRY TRADE,AND QUALITY REVERSALS

We examine an export game where two (home and foreign) firms produce vertically differentiated products. The foreign firm is more R&D efficient and is based in a larger and richer market. The unique (risk‐dominant) Nash equilibrium exhibits intra‐industry trade, and the foreign producer manufactures a higher‐quality product. When transport costs are low, unilateral dumping by the foreign firm arises; otherwise, reciprocal dumping occurs. For some parameters, a domestic antidumping policy leads to a quality reversal in the international market whereby the home firm becomes the quality leader. This policy is desirable for the implementing country, though world welfare decreases.     

Wrapped input selection using multilayer perceptrons for repeat‐purchase modeling in direct marketing

In this paper, we try to validate existing theory on and develop additional insight into repeat‐purchase behavior in a direct marketing setting by means of an illuminating case study. The case involves the detection and qualification of the most relevant RFM (Recency, Frequency and Monetary) variables, using a neural network wrapper as our input pruning method. Results indicate that elimination of redundant and/or irrelevant inputs by means of the discussed input selection method allows us to significantly reduce model complexity without degrading the predictive generalization ability. It is precisely this issue that will enable us to infer some interesting marketing conclusions concerning the relative importance of the RFM predictor categories and their operationalizations. The empirical findings highlight the importance of a combined use of RFM variables in predicting repeat‐purchase behavior. However, the study also reveals the dominant role of the frequency category. Results indicate that a model including only frequency variables still yields satisfactory classification accuracy compared to the optimally reduced model. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Comparison of State-of-the-Art Classification Techniques for Expert Automobile Insurance Claim Fraud Detection

Several state‐of‐the‐art binary classification techniques are experimentally evaluated in the context of expert automobile insurance claim fraud detection. The predictive power of logistic regression, C4.5 decision tree, k‐nearest neighbor, Bayesian learning multilayer perceptron neural network, least‐squares support vector machine, naive Bayes, and tree‐augmented naive Bayes classification is contrasted. For most of these algorithm types, we report on several operationalizations using alternative hyperparameter or design choices. We compare these in terms of mean percentage correctly classified (PCC) and mean area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve using a stratified, blocked, ten‐fold cross‐validation experiment. We also contrast algorithm type performance visually by means of the convex hull of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves associated with the alternative operationalizations per algorithm type. The study is based on a data set of 1,399 personal injury protection claims from 1993 accidents collected by the Automobile Insurers Bureau of Massachusetts. To stay as close to real‐life operating conditions as possible, we consider only predictors that are known relatively early in the life of a claim. Furthermore, based on the qualification of each available claim by both a verbal expert assessment of suspicion of fraud and a ten‐point‐scale expert suspicion score, we can compare classification for different target/class encoding schemes. Finally, we also investigate the added value of systematically collecting nonflag predictors for suspicion of fraud modeling purposes. From the observed results, we may state that: (1) independent of the target encoding scheme and the algorithm type, the inclusion of nonflag predictors allows us to significantly boost predictive performance; (2) for all the evaluated scenarios, the performance difference in terms of mean PCC and mean AUROC between many algorithm type operationalizations turns out to be rather small; visual comparison of the algorithm type ROC curve convex hulls also shows limited difference in performance over the range of operating conditions; (3) relatively simple and efficient techniques such as linear logistic regression and linear kernel least‐squares support vector machine classification show excellent overall predictive capabilities, and (smoothed) naive Bayes also performs well; and (4) the C4.5 decision tree operationalization results are rather disappointing; none of the tree operationalizations are capable of attaining mean AUROC performance in line with the best. Visual inspection of the evaluated scenarios reveals that the C4.5 algorithm type ROC curve convex hull is often dominated in large part by most of the other algorithm type hulls.     

Market‐orientated Positioning of On‐farm Processed Foods as a Condition for Successful Farm Diversification

Farm diversification is stimulated within the reform of the common agricultural policy. On‐farm processing and direct marketing are options, but farmers often lack a marketoriented approach. This paper illustrates the problem by presenting a consumer survey regarding on‐farm processed yoghurt. Conjoint analysis is used to define the most preferred yoghurt in different market segments. Results of the price sensitivity meter are similar to the conjoint analysis. Farmers' price setting is not always adequate, which means that opportunities and additional income are lost. Providing the necessary assistance in collecting market information and commercial training is essential in obtaining sustainable benefits from on‐farm processing and direct marketing.     

Real effects of the 1992 financial deregulation

Zusammenfassung Reale Wirkungen der Deregulierung des Finanzsektors im Jahre 1992. - Der Verfasser analysiert die kurzfristigen und dauerhaften Wirkungen der Deregulierung des Finanzsektors für eine offene Volkswirtschaft, die mit Gütern und Wertpapieren handelt. Es wird haupts?chlich untersucht, welchen Einflu? diese Ma?nahmen auf die Sachkapitalbildung, das Gleichgewicht auf den Wertpapierm?rkten, die Auslandsverschuldung und den übergang von der Unterbesch?ftigung zur Vollbesch?ftigung ausüben. Auf dieser Basis werden die potentiellen Wirkungen der 1992 auf dem Finanzsektor vorgenommenen Liberalisierung für fünf europ?ische L?nder beurteilt. Es zeigt sich, da? von der Deregulierung zu Recht günstige Wirkungen erwartet werden.

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Résumé Les effets réels de la libéralisation financière de 1992. - Dans cette étude l’auteur analyse les effets réels à court terme de la libéralisation financière dans une économie ouverte qui échange des marchandises et des titres. On met l’accent sur la question quel r?le ces mesures jouent pour l’accroissement du capital physique, l’équilibre de portefeuille, l’endettement extérieur de l’économie et pour l’approche à plein emploi. Sur cette base l’auteur évalue les effets potentiels de la libéralisation des services financiers en 1992 pour cinq pays européens et conclut qu’on a de bons raisons d'attendre des effets favorables de la libéralisation financière.

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Resumen Los efectos reales de la desregulación financiera de 1992. - En este trabajo se analizan los efectos reales de la desregulación financiera de corto plazo y de “steady state” en una economia abierta que comercia con bienes y bonos. Se enfatiza el papel que juegan estas medidas en el proceso de acumulación de capital tangible, el equilibrio de cartera, la deuda externa y la transition de una positión con desempleo a una positión sin desempleo. Sobre esta base se estiman los efectos potenciales de la liberalizatión de servicios financieres en cinco países europeos y se concluye que los resultados soportan la hipótesis de que el impacto de la desregulación financiera ha sido positivo.

     

Capital controls and international trade finance in a dual exchange rate regime: The Belgian experience post-mortem

Capital Controls and International Trade Finance in a Dual Exchange Rate Regime: The Belgian Experience Post-Mortem. — The purpose of the paper is to model “leads and lags” capital flows on the official segment of a dual exchange market and to examine the effects of various types of capital controls imposed by authorities on the official spot and forward exchange markets. The focus of the analysis is the degree of insulation provided by a “dual exchange market cum capital controls” in face of a speculative crisis. The crucial variables in this respect are the deviation from covered interest parity and the forward risk premium. Results of the theoretical model are confronted with empirical evidence over the 1975–85 period.     

On the design of invoicing practices in international trade

We advance an explanation for the choice of the invoice currency of international trade contracts on the basis of strategic bargaining considerations. The choice of the invoice currency originates in a situation in which each trader takes into account the other party's bargaining power. The latter depends on the individual discount factor, whether one is the first or second proposer, and whether one is on the short or long side of the market. Along these lines we explain the Grassman bias for trade contracts to be invoiced in the exporter's currency.     

Curbing domestic violence: instantiating C–K theory with formal concept analysis and emergent self-organizing maps

We propose a human-centred process for knowledge discovery from unstructured text that makes use of formal concept analysis and emergent self-organizing maps. The knowledge discovery process is conceptualized and interpreted as successive iterations through the concept–knowledge (C–K) theory design square. To illustrate its effectiveness, we report on a real-life case study of using the process at the Amsterdam–Amstelland police in the Netherlands aimed at distilling concepts to identify domestic violence from the unstructured text in actual police reports. The case study allows us to show how the process was not only able to uncover the nature of a phenomenon such as domestic violence, but also enabled analysts to identify many types of anomaly in the practice of policing. We will illustrate how the insights obtained from this exercise resulted in major improvements in the management of domestic violence cases. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The digital future of internal staffing: A vision for transformational electronic human resource management

Through an international Delphi study, this article explores the new electronic human resource management regimes that are expected to transform internal staffing. Our focus is on three types of information systems: human resource management systems, job portals, and talent marketplaces. We explore the future potential of these new systems and identify the key challenges for their implementation in governments, such as inadequate regulations and funding priorities, a lack of leadership and strategic vision, together with rigid work policies and practices and a change-resistant culture. Tied to this vision, we identify several areas of future inquiry that bridge the divide between theory and practice.