Testing Part of a DSGE Model by Indirect Inference

We propose a way of testing a subset of equations of a DSGE model. The test draws on statistical inference for limited information models and the use of indirect inference to test DSGE models. Using the numerical small sample distribution of our test for two subsets of equations of the Smets–Wouters model we show that the test has accurate size and good power in small samples, and better power than using asymptotic distribution theory. In a test of the Smets–Wouters model on US Great Moderation data, we reject the specification of the wage‐price but not the expenditure sector. This points to the wage‐price sector as the source of overall model rejection.     

Personal Income Tax Reform in China in 2018 and Its Impact on Income Distribution

In the context of personal income tax (PIT) reform in China in 2018, this paper examines some of the major issues of concern regarding the reform and income distribution. Using the China Personal Income Tax Micro‐simulation model, the paper compares the differences between the 2011 and 2018 PIT systems, and finds that residents relying on different income sources may face a large degree of real tax rate change. Once the tax system is altered to PIT 2018, the coverage of PIT for wage earners will decrease from 46.9 to 23.4 percent, the income redistributive effect will drop from 1.95 to 1.22 percent and the PIT's role in fiscal revenue will also be negatively affected. Nevertheless, if individual income continues to grow, the share of PIT in fiscal revenue is expected to return to the 2018 level in 2022, but its income redistribution function is difficult to recover in the short term. The paper finds that the effect of PIT on income distribution depends on the tax structure. Gradual transition to an “entirely comprehensive” tax system when conditions are appropriate will achieve better income redistribution results at a lower average tax rate.     

Aid for trade and the quality of exports

This article studies how aid for trade (AfT) affects the quality of recipient countries’ exports. It shows that the quality effect is most discernible for AfT for assistance in trade policy: a 50% increase in the value of AfT received in this category is associated with a 0.5–1% increase in the quality of exports to the donor and other OECD countries. On average, the actual AfT received for assistance in trade policy leads to a 2% upgrade of the recipient country in the quality ladder of all developing countries. Around half of this quality effect is driven by the quality improvement of continued products in continued markets (intensive margin), and the other half by the quality upgrading of new products in continued markets and existing products in new markets (extensive margin).     

土木工程管理与工程造价的有效控制

土木工程管理和成本管理对土木工程很重要,适当引入先进的管理和思想观念,并利用现代科学技术和社会进步来管理项目和控制成本,从而使建筑企业可以有效地管理项目成本,加快项目建设并提高企业效率.本文对土木工程成本的管理和项目管理中需要解决的关键问题进行深入分析,并提供切实可行的解决方案来促进我国土木工程行业的健康和可持续发展.     

非正规就业人员工作自主性与体面劳动感知——情绪耗竭和超时劳动的视角

与正规就业相比较,劳动者选择非正规就业的重要理由是其工作自主性.对于非正规就业人员来说,工作自主性是否能带来体面劳动感知,工作自主性对体面劳动感知影响过程中存在哪些关键变量,学术界尚未有明确的实证结论.基于工作-需求资源模型,本研究利用中国劳动力动态调查数据库对上述猜想进行实证检验,结果发现:工作自主性对体面劳动感知有显著正向作用;工作自主性显著负向影响情绪耗竭;在工作自主性与体面劳动感知之间,情绪耗竭起着部分中介作用;超时劳动负向调节工作自主性与体面劳动感知之间的关系,即超时劳动越严重,工作自主性对体面劳动感知的正向影响越弱;超时劳动在工作自主性和情绪耗竭之间不存在调节作用.通过对正规就业人员与非正规就业人员的对比分析发现,与非正规就业人员相比,正规就业人员工作自主性对情绪耗竭起着显著正向作用,超时劳动正向调节工作自主性与体面劳动感知之间的关系.     

社会地位来源对欺骗行为的影响——来自实验室实验的证据

如何减少欺骗是当前中国社会普遍面临的问题。文章结合社会地位理论和自我概念理论，研究了减少欺骗行为的机制。我们利用实验室实验，区分先赋性和自致性两种地位获取方式，用欺骗博弈来检验不同社会地位来源对欺骗决策的影响。结果发现，个人通过真实劳动获得的自致性社会地位可以显著减少欺骗行为；由于幸运得到的先赋性社会地位不能减少欺骗行为。同时，非物质收益的社会地位比赋予物质收益的社会地位更有效减少欺骗行为，说明物质收益是对市场化自我概念的提醒，从而无助于降低欺骗。研究结果在剔除策略性行为后依然稳健。研究有效验证了Mazar et al.（2008）关于影响欺骗行为的自我概念内在决定机制，并对各类组织提升诚信管理具有重要借鉴意义。     

股份制石油企业增加值核算方法探讨

从建国到改革开放初期，我国国民经济核算采用的是前苏联、东欧国家的物质产品平衡表体系(MPS)、核心指标是国民收入，反映的是物质生产。改革开放后，非物质性服务业获得了迅速发展，并在国民经济中发挥越来越重要的作用。随着1998年石油行业重组改制和2000年股份公司改制上市、股份制石油企业的管理体制、运行机制、经济关系和会计核算方法等都发生了重大变化，对增加值这一重要经济总量指标的核算方法进行研究已迫在眉睫。增加值有三种核算方法：一是生产法，二是收入法或分配法，三是支出法或最终使用法。文章结合石油企业的实际，着重讨论了前两种核算方法，包括基本原则、计算公式、主要指标、资料获取，以及对生产法和收入法增加值计算结果不等的处理。     

对银行营业网点存款盈亏的分析

该通过对银行某一时期的经营成果进行分析，建立营业网点存款盈亏的计算模式，以此考核营业网点的经营管理水平。     

State-owned enterprises going public The case of China

Public listing is a key reform measure for large state‐owned enterprises (SOEs) in China. We find evidence that public listing lowers state ownership significantly, lessens firms’ reliance on debt finance, and allows firms to increase capital expenditure, at least temporarily. We also find that ownership structure affects post‐listing performance. However, we find no statistical evidence of a positive effect of public listing on firms’ profitability. We suggest alternative interpretations of the last finding.