SYNCHRONISATION BETWEEN SOUTH AFRICA AND THE U.S.: A STRUCTURAL DYNAMIC FACTOR ANALYSIS

This paper studies the synchronisation of the South African and the US cycles and transmission channels through which supply and demand shocks from the US affect economic activity in South Africa in a structural dynamic factor model framework. We find, using the full-sample period, US supply shocks are transmitted to South Africa through business confidence and imports of goods and services; while US demand shocks are transmitted via interest rates, stock prices, exports of goods and services, and real effective exchange rates. Second, there is a decrease in integration over time translated by a drop in synchronisation of cycles. The impact of an increase in comovement of GDP is outweighed by the structural reforms initiated by the government after the end of apartheid. Finally, the idiosyncratic component still plays an important role in the South African economy.     

Schumpeterian endogenous growth theory and evolutionary economics

In this paper, we aim to discuss whether Schumpeterian models of endogenous growth can accommodate Schumpeters vision of development through creative destruction. Taking a methodological approach, our focus is on individual decision-making, technology, general equilibrium and welfare, and steady state dynamics as the fundamental principles underlying endogenous growth theory. In particular, the Aghion-Howitt model of Schumpeterian growth in various extended versions is analyzed in the light of Schumpeters work. Therefore, we also try to root Schumpeters work in historical context. We find endogenous growth theory far from carrying Schumpeters idea of an evolutionary approach to change and development. Rather the emergence of numerous models of an evolutionary type can be observed to provide for the formal structure appropriate to keeping Schumpeters legacy alive.JEL Classification: B1, B2, B4, O3, O4Corespondence to: Thomas Kuhn     

Music Piracy on the Web – How Effective are Anti-Piracy Arguments? Evidence from the Theory of Planned Behaviour

This article presents the results of an experiment in which three different types of anti-piracy arguments were tested among 139 young adult consumers susceptible to engage in swapping music over the Internet: (1) stressing the negative personal consequences of pirating music, (2) stressing the negative consequences for the artists, and (3) stressing the unethical nature of this behaviour. The psychological determinants of music piracy behaviour were modeled in part with (1991) Ajzen’s theory of planned behaviour. The results show that the intention to swap music on-line depended on one’s attitude toward music piracy, one’s perception that important others want that this behaviour be performed, and one’s perceived competency in doing so. In addition, having swapped music on-line in the past had a strong influence on one’s intention to do it again. Contrary to expectations, the anti-piracy arguments had no significant impact on the behavioural dynamics underlying on-line music piracy.