An empirical note about estimation and forecasting Latin American Forex returns volatility: the role of long memory and random level shifts components

Portuguese Economic Journal - A set of RLS-type models with ARMA and ARFIMA dynamics is estimated and compared in a forecasting exercise with ARFIMA, GARCH and FIGARCH models. It is an extension of...     

The scope and scale of the informal food economy of South African urban residential townships: Results of a small-area micro-enterprise census

Growing urbanisation in South Africa is reflected in burgeoning Working class and informal township settlements on the fringes of its major towns and cities. Paired with this is an increasing reliance on cash as the primary means of economic transaction, which has in turn stimulated the growth of micro-enterprise business activities within the township context. This article discusses the findings of an eight-township small-area census which occurred between 2010 and 2013 in Cape Town, Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Durban townships representing 250 000 residents. The researchers were able to establish the scope and scale of informal food and drink retailing in these localities. Of the 10 049 micro-enterprises located in the study, some 3966 (or 39% of the total) trade in food. These include enterprises in primary production, fresh produce retailing, grocery retailing from house and spaza shops, and informal foodservice enterprises. Food is the basis for much township informal business and plays an important role in making food increasingly affordable and locally accessible, and in creating cash employment. The article builds on the knowledge base of the township informal economy role in bolstering food security needs for the marginalised.     

Entry into force of the UN Watercourses Convention: why should it matter?

The United Nations Watercourses Convention entered into force on 17 August 2014, following a long and complex journey that dates back to 1970 when the UN referred the matter to its legal arm, the International Law Commission. This article follows the Convention through that long and turbulent road, examines its main provisions and analyses the reasons for the delay of its entry into force. It concludes by answering the question of why entry into force of the Convention should indeed matter.     

State‐Dependent Forward Guidance and the Problem of Inconsistent Announcements

Forward guidance can be provided as an unconditional promise, i.e. commitment to a specific low policy rate. Alternatively, the promise may include an escape clause, i.e. a condition defining the state of the economy under which the central bank would not keep such a low rate and, instead, it would revert to setting policy under discretion. The escape clause can be expressed as a threshold in terms of a specific variable. The present paper shows that, when such a threshold is expressed in terms of an endogenous variable (e.g. output, inflation), there are cases where it becomes impossible for the central bank to act in a way that is consistent with its promise. Consistency imposes limits on the policy rate that can be set since reverting immediately to the optimal discretionary rate can be incompatible with exceeding the threshold.     

Dreissenid veliger dynamics along a nearshore to offshore transect in Lake Michigan

Dreissenid mussel veligers compose a substantial component of pelagic biomass in the Great Lakes, yet their dynamics are poorly understood. To evaluate seasonal, spatial, and inter-annual variation in veliger density, we used a 64-μm mesh plankton net (2008, 2013–2016) and a 153-μm mesh plankton net (2007–2016) to collect dreissenid veligers at nearshore (15–25?m depth), transitional (45?m) and offshore (93–110?m) sites in southeast Lake Michigan during March–December. We also evaluated trends in density of recently settled mussels relative to veliger abundance and the density of the standing stock of adult mussels. Veliger density peaked during both summer and fall at all sites, but peak densities in summer were generally higher nearshore, whereas peak densities in the fall were generally higher offshore. The density of veligers in the 153-μm net was overall 28% of that in the 64-μm net, but there was high variability in this comparison among months. Smaller veligers were much more abundant in the 64-μm net, but there was little difference in the size distribution and abundance between nets for the 210–300?μm size classes. Thus, the 153-μm net could still be a useful tool for assessing density trends of larger veligers just prior to their settlement. Newly settled mussels (≤2?mm) were most abundant in summer or fall at the nearshore and offshore sites but were nearly absent at the transitional site despite the high density of veligers there. Factors other than veliger density must play an important role in mussel recruitment.     

Influence of episodic wind events on thermal stratification and bottom water hypoxia in a Great Lakes estuary

Hypoxia formation and breakdown were tracked during 2015 in Muskegon Lake estuary at multiple locations, and five years (2011–2015) of time-series buoy observatory data were evaluated for the effect of episodic wind-events on lake mixing. Bi-weekly water temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) profiles at four locations revealed that hypoxia occurred at all sites and persisted for 2–3 months during summer 2015. On one date in late-summer, up to 24% of the lake’s volume was estimated to be mildly hypoxic (DO < 4 mg L^?1) as defined by lake sturgeon requirements. Patterns of wind speed and water column stability in late spring indicated that high winds and low stability delayed the onset of hypoxia while in late summer low winds and high stability delayed degradation of hypoxia. Wind speeds appear to play a great role in the interannual variability of stratification and subsequent hypoxia. Water temperature and DO profiles taken before and after one mid-summer mixing event (wind speed >7.7 m s^?1 for 10 h), indicated that while the wind was unable to completely mix the entire water column, it deepened the epilimnion by ～1.5 m and sheared a thin layer from the upper hypolimnion. By entraining internally loaded nutrients, such episodic wind-events may initiate and sustain algal blooms in nutrient limited surface waters. Quantifying the variable role of wind and mixing events will be key to integrating limnological processes into climate models of the future.     

Flood Risk and Salience: New Evidence from the Sunshine State

A growing literature finds evidence that flood risk salience varies over time, spiking directly following a flood and then falling off individuals' cognitive radar in the following years. In this article, we provide new evidence of salience exploiting a hurricane cluster impacting Florida that was preceded and followed by periods of unusual calm. Utilizing residential property sales across the state from 2002 through 2012, our main estimate finds a salience impact of ?8%, on average. The salience effect persists when we base estimation only on spatial variation in prices to limit confounding from other simultaneous changes due to shifting hedonic equilibria over time. These effects range from housing prices decreases of 5.4–12.3% depending on the year of sale. Understanding flood risk salience has important implications for flood insurance and disaster policy, the benefits transfer literature, and, more broadly, our understanding of natural disaster resilience. JEL Classification: Q51, Q54, R21     

Comparison of Sharp Interface to Variable Density Models in Pumping Optimisation of Coastal Aquifers

Water Resources Management - A number of models have been developed to simulate seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers, which differ in the accuracy level and computational demands, based on the...