Unbiased estimation of expected return using CAPM

Estimation of expected return is required for many financial decisions. For example, an estimate for cost of capital is required for capital budgeting and cost of equity estimates are needed for performance evaluation based on measures such as EVA. Estimates for expected return are often based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which states that expected excess return (expected return minus the risk-free rate) is equal to the asset's sensitivity to the world market portfolio (β) times the risk premium on the “world market portfolio” (the market risk premium). Since the world market portfolio, by definition, contains all assets in the world, it is not observable. As a result, an estimate for expected return is commonly obtained by taking an estimate for β based on some index (as a proxy for the world market portfolio) and an estimate for the market risk premium based on a potentially different index and multiplying them together. In this paper, it is shown that this results in a biased estimate for expected return. This is undesirable since biased estimates lead to misallocation of funds and biased performance measures. It is also shown in this paper that the straightforward procedure suggested by Fama and MacBeth [J. Financ. Econ. 1 (1974) 43] results in an unbiased estimate for expected return. Further from the analysis done, it follows that, for an unbiased estimate, it does not matter what proxy is used, as long as it is used correctly an unbiased estimate for expected return results.     

Inflation dynamics in Kazakhstan1

In January 1992, Kazakhstan initiated a reform programme to move towards market-determined prices. The price liberalization process was characterized by large relative price shifts and an increase in the overall price level towards those observed in market economies. The paper shows how the piecemeal manner in which prices were liberalized resulted in strong relative price variability over a prolonged period of time, against a background of high inflation. Convergence towards international relative and absolute price levels has progressed but is not complete, with prices for energy and services in particular still below market economy levels.     

Self-Efficacy Toward Service, Civic Participation and the Business Student: Scale Development and Validation

This paper presents the development andvalidation of new measurement tools to exploreself-efficacy toward service and toward civicparticipation. We developed and administereda survey to 851 students in an AACSB-accreditedcollege of business at a comprehensive publicuniversity located in the Midwest. Traditionalscale development methodologies plusconfirmatory factor analysis and simultaneousfactor analysis in several populations wereused to analyze both a primary sample and aholdback sample. Results strongly support thevalidity and reliability of the surveyinstrument. Future use for the instrumentincludes verification of the effectiveness ofpedagogies designed to increase self-efficacytoward service and motivation for civicparticipation in business students.     

“脱媒”与商业银行业务模式转型

扩大直接融资，降低对于以银行贷款为主导的间接融资的依赖，是未来中国金融结构调整的一个基本趋势。近年来，在投资基金、企业债、短期融资券等创新金融工具的冲击厦资本充足监管的约束下，商业银行传统的业务模式正面临着调整。商业银行只有通过提高风险控制能力、开发多样化金融产品、拓展新的收入来源渠道，并借助金融创新应时贷款质量和信用等级的下降等，才能降低“脱媒”所带来的影响。     

社保基金监管的现状、问题与建议

目前,我国已经初步确立社保基金监管体制,取得了明显的成效.但依然存在着局部地区违规操作、管理体制不顺畅和相关法制、监管建设滞后等问题.从世界范围社会保障基金监管实践看,依托完备法律法规体制实施社保基金监管,确立社保基金监管部门、监管结构,赋予执法权威,社保基金监管向专业化、市场化发展成为社保基金监管的共同点.借鉴国际先进管理经验,我国应提高立法层次、建立完善的法律体制;强化监管力量,适当集中,构建主辅分明、多重监管的社保基金监管结构;推进社会保险基金监管的市场化.     

企业年金风险监管的主要环节与政策框架

我国企业年金运营模式复杂,年金市场涉及金融机构类型众多,风险监管尤为重要。首先要加强信用风险监管,保证相关利益主体的相对独立性,注重投资风险和运行的公平。监管机构应当加强主动监管,推动协同监管框架的创新尝试,加强监管主体之间以及其自身部门之间的信息沟通,重点监管关联交易及其可能带来的风险。     

Cultural agility and international assignees’ effectiveness in cross‐cultural interactions

While many mutable competencies and immutable personality traits have been shown to have a direct positive relationship with international assignee success, this study examines whether a set of situation‐specific cross‐cultural competencies comprising cultural agility are also related to international assignee success. This study examines whether the combination of three situation‐specific responses to cultural differences (cultural adaptation, cultural minimization and cultural integration) explain any additional variance in supervisor's ratings of international assignee success above and beyond personality and cross‐cultural competencies. To test this hypothesis, supervisor‐rated of assignees’ effectiveness in working with host nationals was regressed on the number of international assignees’ cultural orientations. Controlling for personality and dynamic competencies, the overall model was significant explaining 17 per cent of the total variance. This study provides some preliminary evidence on the importance of expatriates’ possessing the ability to possess concurrent cultural orientations. The HR practices to foster cultural agility are discussed.