US elections and monthly stock market returns

Using monthly market returns over a period of 104 years, we investigate possible relationships between stock market performance and various occurrences in American elections. Unlike most prior studies, we find little relationship between the two. In the relatively few cases where we do find statistically significant relationships, the degree of explanatory power is quite small. Specifically, market returns do not appear to vary based on partisan control of the government, a result that is robust to the inclusion or exclusion of macroeconomic control variables. Further, the often-discussed “second-half” effect, which predicts higher returns during the second half of a given presidential term, turns out to be both weaker and less straightforward than is commonly believed. Overall, neither election results nor the election cycle appears to offer much help in predicting stock market returns.      

钋法探测煤矿含水构造的实例与效果

本文介绍了钋法探测煤矿含水构造的特点、探测原理、工作方法以及实际运用效果。     

Equity returns,bond returns,and the equity premium in the German capital market

This article reviews the empirical evidence for equity returns, bond returns, and the equity premium in the German capital market for the period from 1870 to 1995. Taken together, the studies reviewed provide convincing evidence that over longer investment periods, average equity returns have been higher than average bond returns. These excess returns, however, have been highly volatile and negative in many years, illustrating the higher risk of equity investments. Moreover, market timing had a major positive or negative impact on overall returns. Despite the historical evidence of a substantial equity premium there is still little equity investment by German households.     

Public and private sector auditors and accruals quality in English NHS hospital Trusts

To promote auditor independence and audit quality in English NHS Trusts the Audit Commission regulates auditor rotation, fees and the appointment of its own and private sector auditors. NHS sanctioned departures from GAAP, some of which allow the financial breakeven target to be achieved, have been criticised by the Audit Commission as detrimental to financial discipline. In this paper, we investigate the association between abnormal accruals and the achievement of financial breakeven in NHS hospital Trusts over the period 1998–2005. We also investigate the association between abnormal accruals, audit fees and the Trusts audited by public and private sector auditors. We find evidence that abnormal accruals are used to achieve financial breakeven and they differ across different types of auditor. We also identify a negative relationship between abnormal accruals and NHS Trust star ratings. These findings raise questions about the ‘quality’ of NHS audit where compliance with NHS-specific regulations overrides the wider GAAP-based requirement for financial statements to show a true and fair view and they warrant reconsideration of the nature of audit in NHS Trusts.     

城镇居民教育收益率的地区差异及其解释

利用中国社会科学院经济研究所"中国城乡居民收入分配"课题组1995年和2002年的家庭抽样调查数据,本文使用分层线性模型重新估计了1995年、2002年我国居民的教育收益率,得到了不同于OLS估计的结果:(1)我国城镇居民教育收益率的地区差异很大,差异主要来源于省内各城市之间,来源于省间的差别并不显著;(2)计算了省内城市劳动力市场化程度对当地教育收益率的边际影响,发现劳动力市场的发育确实有利于提高教育收益率,而且劳动力市场化程度的差异在一定程度上为各地教育收益率的差异提供了解释。     

Individual heterogeneity in the returns to schooling: instrumental variables quantile regression using twins data

Considerable effort has been exercised in estimating mean returns to education while carefully considering biases arising from unmeasured ability and measurement error. Recent work has investigated whether there are variations from the “mean” return to education across the population with mixed results. We use an instrumental variables estimator for quantile regression on a sample of twins to estimate an entire family of returns to education at different quantiles of the conditional distribution of wages while addressing simultaneity and measurement error biases. We test whether there is individual heterogeneity in returns to education and find that: more able individuals obtain more schooling perhaps due to lower marginal costs and/or higher marginal benefits of schooling and that higher ability individuals (those further to the right in the conditional distribution of wages) have higher returns to schooling consistent with a non-trivial interaction between schooling and unobserved abilities in the generation of earnings. The estimated returns are never lower than 9 percent and can be as high as 13 percent at the top of the conditional distribution of wages but they vary significantly only along the lower to middle quantiles. Our findings may have meaningful implications for the design of educational policies.