Risk spillover between Bitcoin and conventional financial markets: An expectile-based approach

In order to challenge the existing literature that points to the detachment of Bitcoin from the global financial system, we use daily data from August 17, 2011–February 14, 2020 and apply a risk spillover approach based on expectiles. Results show reasonable evidence to imply the existence of downside risk spillover between Bitcoin and four assets (equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities), which seems to be time dependent. Our main findings have implications for participants in both the Bitcoin and traditional financial markets for the sake of asset allocation, and risk management. For policy makers, the findings suggest that Bitcoin should be monitored carefully for the sake of financial stability.     

金融科技对传统银行行为的影响——基于互联网理财的视角

本文使用2011-2015年263家银行的年报数据和北京大学数字金融研究中心基于蚂蚁金服用户数据构建的地市级数字金融普惠指数,探究金融科技的发展对银行行为的影响。研究发现金融科技的发展实质上推动了一种变相的利率市场化,改变了银行的负债端结构,使得银行负债端越来越依赖于同业拆借等批发性资金。负债端结构的改变导致银行资产端风险承担偏好上升,但是借贷利率和净息差都有所下降。即银行选择了更高风险的资产来弥补负债端成本上升所造成的损失,但并没有将成本向下游企业转移。此外,本文还发现规模越大的银行受到金融科技的冲击越小。     

信贷管制、隐性契约与贷款利率变相市场化——现象与解释

本文将视角聚焦于利率市场化改革之前,重点研究金融抑制对银企信贷契约的异化。研究发现,在金融抑制背景下银企之间存在以留存贷款为表现的隐性契约,用以帮助银行在满足管制要求的同时追求利润最大化。本文对这一现象进行了理论分析与实证检验,发现隐性契约的发生与否会随着货币政策、企业特征等因素的改变而有所差异,这在一定程度上起到了利率变相市场化的作用。进一步研究则发现,这一隐性契约对企业价值产生了负向影响。     

Unbiased estimation of expected return using CAPM

Estimation of expected return is required for many financial decisions. For example, an estimate for cost of capital is required for capital budgeting and cost of equity estimates are needed for performance evaluation based on measures such as EVA. Estimates for expected return are often based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which states that expected excess return (expected return minus the risk-free rate) is equal to the asset's sensitivity to the world market portfolio (β) times the risk premium on the “world market portfolio” (the market risk premium). Since the world market portfolio, by definition, contains all assets in the world, it is not observable. As a result, an estimate for expected return is commonly obtained by taking an estimate for β based on some index (as a proxy for the world market portfolio) and an estimate for the market risk premium based on a potentially different index and multiplying them together. In this paper, it is shown that this results in a biased estimate for expected return. This is undesirable since biased estimates lead to misallocation of funds and biased performance measures. It is also shown in this paper that the straightforward procedure suggested by Fama and MacBeth [J. Financ. Econ. 1 (1974) 43] results in an unbiased estimate for expected return. Further from the analysis done, it follows that, for an unbiased estimate, it does not matter what proxy is used, as long as it is used correctly an unbiased estimate for expected return results.     

Catching up with the Americans

This paper develops an international version of the consumption-based capital asset pricing (CCAPM), which we refer to as “catching up with the Americans.” Previous CCAPM research develops the concept of “catching up with the Joneses,” where a representative economic agent exhibits higher marginal utility of consumption as a result of higher past per capita consumption in his own country. Catching up with the Americans, on the other hand, is an international habit-preference hypothesis. It extends the idea of catching up with the Joneses by stating that consumers of non-U.S. countries gain higher marginal utility of consumption as a result of higher past American consumption growth. Contrary to much of the CCAPM literature, we test this version of the model using long bond rates rather than equity returns. However, like most of the previous research on the CCAPM, the catching up with the Americans model fails to explain the relationship between consumption and asset returns.     

调配产权收益完善资产负债结构

国资监督机构在深化国资国企过程中应集中调配产权权益,完善资产负债结构,优化资源配置,通过资本运营和良好的市场环境,充分发挥中央和地方政府的职能,在互为尊重的前提下,杜绝侵权行为的发生。     

论我国经济转型时期新一轮经济结构调整的任务及政策取向

在计划经济向市场经济转轨的条件下 ,我国宏观经济出现了由供给约束向需求约束的转型 ,在转型中宏观经济的结构性矛盾日益严重。这一结构性矛盾具有综合性、深层次性、萎缩性特征。在转型时期 ,新一轮经济结构战略性调整的任务是积极发展高新技术产业 ,搞好国有企业的职能定位 ,优化经济结构 ,提高国民经济的整体素质。新一轮经济结构调整政策取向的内涵是 :全面推进市场化改革 ,形成以市场为基础的经济结构调整 ;解决结构优化过程中的制度缺位问题 ;进一步调整国有经济结构 ,加快非公有制经济的发展 ;发展特色经济 ,提升产业结构。     

AN EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION OF RELATIONSHIP MAGNITUDE

Based upon a review of the extant literature, it is proposed that the structure of an interorganizational relationship is composed of relationship type and the under‐researched construct of relationship magnitude. Specifically, it is hypothesized that relationship magnitude, a second order construct composed of trust, commitment, and dependence, affects relationship type, which affects the perception of value of the relationship. The results of a survey analyzed through structural equation modeling support these hypotheses.     

上市公司股利分配现状及对策研究

本文分析了我国上市公司股利分配的现状及存在的主要问题,并深入地剖析了这些问题产生的原因。在此基础上,从内部规范和外部规范两个方面提出改进我国上市公司股利分配的对策,以其对发展与完善我国资本市场提供帮助。