Non-linear Gaussian sovereign CDS pricing models

Prior literature indicates that quadratic models and the Black–Karasinski model are very promising for CDS pricing. This paper extends these models and the Black [J. Finance 1995, 50, 1371–1376] model for pricing sovereign CDS’s. For all 10 sovereigns in the sample quadratic models best fit CDS spreads in-sample, and a four factor quadratic model can account for the joint effects on CDS spreads of default risk, default loss risk and liquidity risk with no restriction to factors correlation. Liquidity risk appears to affect sovereign CDS spreads. However, quadratic models tend to over-fit some CDS maturities at the expense of other maturities, while the BK model is particularly immune from this tendency. The Black model seems preferable because its out-of-sample performance in the time series dimension is the best.     

Spillovers among CDS indexes in the US financial sector

By employing the robust cross-correlation function approach proposed by Hong (2001), and conducting pre-tests for structural breaks in the variances as well as removing the causality-in-mean effects in the causality-in-variance tests, we investigate volatility and mean transmissions between the credit default swaps (CDS) indexes of three US financial sectors. We use daily series on five-year banking, insurance, and financial services sector CDS indexes at the sector level from January 2004 to December 2011. We find evidence of significant causality-in-mean effects running from the banking sector to the insurance and financial services sector CDS indexes and from the financial services to the insurance sector CDS indexes, suggesting the leading role of the banking and financial services sectors in terms of price discovery. Moreover, we find significant causality-in-variance effects from the financial services sector CDS index to that of the banking sector, implying the existence of information transmission and contagion from the former, the least regulated of the three. The implications of these findings on traders and policymakers are also provided.     

辩证分析信用衍生品功能的利与弊——以07金融危机为例

Stewart Jones和Maurice Peat认为信用衍生品是一种有效管理风险的工具,有利于对冲风险（hedging）,以及提供多元分散化投资的机会。然而,次贷危机也正是滥用这种方便廉价的衍生品的产物。一方面,信用衍生品有自己的先天设计缺陷,另一方面,当它们被滥用时,原本金融体系中产生的错误与压力会被放大而导致最终的金融危机灾难。本文试图客观分析金融衍生品的利与弊,为我国逐步开放信用衍生品市场借鉴经验。     

Spillovers between sovereign CDS and exchange rate markets: The role of market fear

As important variables in financial market, sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) and exchange rate have correlations and spillovers. And the volatility spillovers between the two markets become further complicated with the effect of market fear caused by extreme events such as global pandemic. This paper attempts to explore the complex interactions within the “sovereign CDS-exchange rate” system by adopting the forecast error variance decomposition method. The results show that there is a relatively close linkage between the two markets and the total spillover index of the system is dynamic. For most of the past, the exchange rate has a higher spillover effect on the sovereign CDS than vice versa. Moreover, after the market fear variables are introduced, the “sovereign CDS-exchange rate” system and market fear variables present bidirectional spillovers. The results of the study have particular significance for maintaining the financial stability and preventing risk contagion between markets.     

News sentiment and sovereign credit risk

We explore the impact of media content on sovereign credit risk. Our measure of media tone is extracted from the Thomson Reuters News Analytics database. As a proxy for sovereign credit risk we consider credit default swap (CDS) spreads, which are decomposed into their risk premium and default risk components. We find that media tone explains and predicts CDS returns and is a mixture of noise and information. Its effect on risk premium induces a temporary change in investors’ appetite for credit risk exposure, whereas its impact on the default component leads to reassessments of the fundamentals of sovereign economies.     

Which financial stocks did short sellers target in the subprime crisis?

Tracing the SEC ban on the short selling of financial stocks in September 2008, this paper investigates whether such selling activity before the 2008 short ban reflected financial companies’ risk exposure in the subprime crisis. Evidence suggests that short sellers sold short stocks that had the greatest asset and insolvency risk exposures, and that the short selling of financial firms’ stocks was not significantly greater than that of non-financial firms after we match them on firm size and insolvency risk. When the short ban was in effect, the market quality of financial stocks without subprime assets exposure had deteriorated to a larger degree than that of financial companies with subprime assets exposure. The findings imply that such a regulation may mute the market disciplining effects of investors and may also be seen as a counterweight to any perceived macro or systemic risk reduction benefits resulting from such a ban.     

Seeking causality between liquidity risk and credit risk: TED-OIS spreads and CDS indexes

Since the Global Financial Crisis, credit risk and its management have become one of the most appealing topics in finance literature. In this study, we investigate the interaction of credit risk and liquidity risk through the TED and the OIS spreads and various credit default swap indexes from the CDX and the iTraxx family (CDXIG, CDXHY, ITEEU, and ITEXO). The empirical analysis is conducted through the Kapetanios unit root test, the EGARCH model, the Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto modified Wald test and the asymmetric causality analysis. The results of symmetric and asymmetric causality methods reveal that liquidity risk appears to play an important role in credit risk, and in most cases, the TED and the OIS spreads dominate the CDS indexes. It can, thus, be concluded that the TED and the OIS spreads are superior to the CDS indexes as an early warning indicator in the credit market.     

论美国国际集团CDS交易中存在的三大风险

关于国际保险业巨头美国国际集团AIG被接管这一事件，学者的分析大多集中在市场监管和AIG的宏观操作失误层面。本文从保险集AIG的角度，详细分析了金融子公司AIGFP在信用违约互换CDS交易中存在的三大风险，即提前终止风险、估值风险和追加抵押额风险。结合分析，本文对保险公司今后的发展给出了几点建议。     

美国金融危机中信用衍生品的风险及作用机制——兼议对我国金融创新的启示

美国金融危机的爆发,让人们对金融创新产生了一种恐惧心理.最近上海明确提出建设国际金融中心,发展金融创新则是不可回避的事实.本文试图全面介绍信用衍生品的运作原理及潜在风险,在此基础上分析信用衍生品在美国金融危机中的作用机制,为我国推行金融创新,发展信用衍生品市场提供一些建议.