Machine learning in individual claims reserving

Machine learning techniques make it feasible to calculate claims reserves on individual claims data. This paper illustrates how these techniques can be used by providing an explicit example in individual claims reserving.     

基于大数据环境的财务报销自动审核系统构建

为了有效地解决当前企业财务报销审核系统中审核差错大、运行效率低的问题,在大数据分析的基础上,对自动财务报销审核系统进行了优化。结合数值概率算法,对大量财务报销数据进行合理分类,并将分类后的数据传输到财务项目配置模块进行审批。优化财务审核安全评价流程,检查审核处理结构的准确性。对系统服务器和处理器模块的硬件配置进行了优化,达到了优化财务自动报销审核运行效果和准确性的设计目标。实验证明,基于大数据分析的财务报销自动审核系统的财务审核差错率较传统系统明显降低,系统运行效率较传统审核系统提高20%-50%。     

论无权处分的法律效力

无权处分的法律效力一直就有争论,相关论文也非常多。在主张物权行为与债权行为区分对待和坚持物权行为有因性的前提下,对无权处分的法律效力加以区分控制。     

Two-Sided Bounds for Ruin Probabilities when the Adjustment Coefficient does not Exist

In this paper, we derive two-sided bounds for the ruin probability in the compound Poisson risk model when the adjustment coefficient of the individual claim size distribution does not exist. These bounds also apply directly to the tails of compound geometric distributions. The upper bound is tighter than that of Dickson (1994). The corresponding lower bound, which holds under the same conditions, is tighter than that of De Vylder and Goovaerts (1984). Even when the adjustment coefficient exists, the upper bound is, in some cases, tighter than Lundberg's bound. These bounds are applicable for any positive distribution function with a finite mean. Examples are given and numerical comparisons with asymptotic formulae for the ruin probability are also considered.     

住房公积金及增值收益物权属性保障对策研究

本文在论证住房公积金及增值收益物权属性的基础上,提出具体保障对策。首先,拓宽住房公积金保值增值渠道;其次,公积金业务与中心经费并账核算,增加业务支出核算内容;再次,建立住房公积金增值收益分配新模式,缴存职工参与公积金分红。     

未定权益分析方法与中国宏观金融风险的测度分析

本文利用未定权益分析方法(CCA),在汇集、处理与整合编制多方数据的基础上,通过建立国民经济机构部门层面的风险财务报表,测度了2000—2008年我国的宏观金融风险,并直观展示和分析了该期间国民经济各机构部门风险敞口的动态演变情况。本文在我国特殊的数据背景下,基于我国金融市场发展的现状,探索了测度和监控我国系统性金融风险的具体理论与方法。     

非寿险公司赔款准备金与盈余管理——中国市场的经验分析

利用我国非寿险公司2001~2007年的财务数据,采用分位数回归方法探讨非寿险公司赔款准备金调整的动机,并比较非寿险业务准备金评估方法改变前后公司实现盈余管理动机的差异。研究发现,非寿险公司存在实现盈余管理的现象,相比规避递延税收的目的而言,管理层故意调整公司当年赔款准备金数字进行盈余平滑的动机更为显著。当公司当期盈余表现差于前一期时,管理者倾向于低估当期赔款准备金提升账面盈余;若当期盈余表现优于前一期时,则高估准备金平滑盈余。在当年承保业务不佳,赔付率较高时,非寿险公司具有低估准备金掩饰承保质量的动机。2005年非寿险业务赔款准备金评估方法的改变,显著增强了非寿险公司利用赔款准备金进行盈余管理的动机。     

Does nutrition information on food products lead to healthier food choices?

This paper examines the link between nutrition label use and consumers’ healthier food choices. Label use is considered for the two main types of labels currently found on food products; nutrition facts panels and nutrition/health claims. This link is tested using a three-equation multivariate probit model. Data were obtained from an ad hoc survey conducted in two medium-sized Spanish cities. The results indicate that the use of nutrition information by consumers, whether this involves the fact panel or the claim labels, does influence consumer choice of healthier food products to the same extent, although different types of consumers use the various types of labels considered.