Cost monotonicity, consistency and minimum cost spanning tree games

We propose a new cost allocation rule for minimum cost spanning tree games. The new rule is a core selection and also satisfies cost monotonicity. We also give characterisation theorems for the new rule as well as the much-studied Bird allocation. We show that the principal difference between these two rules is in terms of their consistency properties.     

Statistical Decision Problems and Bayesian Nonparametric Methods

This paper considers parametric statistical decision problems conducted within a Bayesian nonparametric context. Our work was motivated by the realisation that typical parametric model selection procedures are essentially incoherent. We argue that one solution to this problem is to use a flexible enough model in the first place, a model that will not be checked no matter what data arrive. Ideally, one would use a nonparametric model to describe all the uncertainty about the density function generating the data. However, parametric models are the preferred choice for many statisticians, despite the incoherence involved in model checking, incoherence that is quite often ignored for pragmatic reasons. In this paper we show how coherent parametric inference can be carried out via decision theory and Bayesian nonparametrics. None of the ingredients discussed here are new, but our main point only becomes evident when one sees all priors—even parametric ones—as measures on sets of densities as opposed to measures on finite-dimensional parameter spaces.     

WICKEDNESS IN SOCIAL CHOICE

In an article from 1973, Rittel and Webber distinguished between ‘tame’ or ‘benign’ problems on the one hand and ‘wicked’ problems on the other. The authors argued that wicked problems occur in nearly all public policy issues. Since different groups adhere to different value-sets, solutions can only be expressed as better or worse. By no means can they be viewed as definitive or objective. In this paper we consider, from this very angle, the theory of social choice which is about the aggregation of individual preferences with the aim to derive a consistent social preference. We show that collective choice offers wicked problems of various types which differ in their degree of severity. We hereby concentrate on welfare functions and voting schemes of different kinds and discuss these in the light of various criteria such as Arrow's independence condition, Condorcet consistency, monotonicity, manipulability, and other properties.     

基于宏观资产负债表的居民债务问题及其风险研究

本文从宏观资产负债表的编制出发,对比世界主要经济体的居民债务演变,有效度量中国居民部门的债务杠杆水平。通过宏观部门经济间的关联,构造基于存量-流量一致的部门结构化均衡模型,剖析居民部门债务风险的传导机制,分析货币、财政和地产政策在居民债务风险防范中的作用。结果表明:中国居民部门金融资产负债率和偿债比例偏高,偿债压力逐步加大。但适中的资产负债率和较高的潜在经济增速为我国居民部门债务风险的化解提供了足够的空间。紧缩性货币政策有利于居民部门去杠杆化,但由此引发的消费减速和经济下行将导致企业和政府部门债务攀升;减税较政府直接支出更能激发消费内需、降低居民和企业债务杠杆,同时,长期经济的好转利于政府债务风险稳定。紧缩性地产政策虽然有助于长期经济结构的调整,但需防范短期经济下滑。     

Results on the bias and inconsistency of ordinary least squares for the linear probability model

This note formalizes bias and inconsistency results for ordinary least squares (OLS) on the linear probability model and provides sufficient conditions for unbiasedness and consistency to hold. The conditions suggest that a “trimming estimator” may reduce OLS bias.     

Consistency of elementwise-weighted total least squares estimator in a multivariate errors-in-variables model <Emphasis Type="Bold">AX=B</Emphasis>

A multivariate measurement error model AXB is considered. The errors in [A,B] are rowwise independent, but within each row the errors may be correlated. Some of the columns are observed without errors, and in addition the error covariance matrices may differ from row to row. The total covariance structure of the errors is supposed to be known up to a scalar factor. The fully weighted total least squares estimator of X is studied, which in the case of normal errors coincides with the maximum likelihood estimator. We give mild conditions for weak and strong consistency of the estimator, when the number of rows in A increases. The results generalize the conditions of Gallo given for a univariate homoscedastic model (where B is a vector), and extend the conditions of Gleser given for the multivariate homoscedastic model. We derive the objective function for the estimator and propose an iteratively reweighted numerical procedure.Acknowledgements.A. Kukush is supported by a postdoctoral research fellowship of the Belgian office for Scientific, Technical and Cultural Affairs, promoting Scientific and Technical Collaboration with Central and Eastern Europe. S. Van Huffel is a full professor with the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven. This paper presents research results of the Belgian Programme on Interuniversity Poles of Attraction (IUAP Phase V-22), initiated by the Belgian State, Prime Ministers Office-Federal Office for Scientific, Technical and Cultural Affairs, of the Concerted Research Action (GOA) projects of the Flemish Government MEFISTO-666 (Mathematical Engineering for Information and Communication Systems Technology), of the IDO/99/03 project (K.U. Leuven) Predictive computer models for medical classification problems using patient data and expert knowledge, of the FWO projects G.0200.00, G.0078.01 and G.0270.02. The scientific responsibility is assumed by its authors. The authors would like to thank Maria Luisa Rastello and Amedeo Premoli for bringing the EW-TLS problem to their attention. The authors are grateful to two anonymous referees for the valuable comments.     

我国稀土外贸管制实施效果及困境分析

本文分析了我国对于稀土产品出口外贸管制面临的几大瓶颈问题：内外贸政策的一致性、价格传导机制影响实体经济、环境保护及可持续发展问题。通过分析发现,出口限制有效地改善了出口的价格劣势,但是国内市场行业集中度的提高和企业分散经营同时并存;管制让市场形成了价格上涨的预期,引致企业之间的无序扩张,放大了产业链的“牛鞭效应”并最终损害了行业利益;虽然能源利用效率得到提高,但对环境污染问题却有加重趋势,尤其是在稀土金属矿采选行业。最后提出需要转变监管方式,以资源税、环境税替代关税等措施;让市场信息充分流动．减少行政干预,改变国有企业独大的现状：加强环境保护的监管等。     

地方政府、行为一致性与农民负担决定——以山西省1994—2000年的面板数据为例

本文的切入点是影响山西省农民负担决定的因素，分析的重点是既有文献中暗含的“高级别地方政府无关假定”。以城市为分析单位，使用计量经济学中面板数据的分析方法，本文的研究结果证实了已有的两种主要理论观点（非农收入理论与财政支出理论）的稳健性；这就意味着“高级别地方政府无关假定”是与事实不符的假定，这样的假定会局限人们对农民负担问题的深入理解。同时，这样的发现还意味着在农民负担决定问题上，各级地方政府的行为存在着某种事实上的一致性，从而为分析财政分权体制下政府竞争或串谋存在的范围提供了一个重要的案例。     

Bayesian modeling of joint and conditional distributions

In this paper, we study a Bayesian approach to flexible modeling of conditional distributions. The approach uses a flexible model for the joint distribution of the dependent and independent variables and then extracts the conditional distributions of interest from the estimated joint distribution. We use a finite mixture of multivariate normals (FMMN) to estimate the joint distribution. The conditional distributions can then be assessed analytically or through simulations. The discrete variables are handled through the use of latent variables. The estimation procedure employs an MCMC algorithm. We provide a characterization of the Kullback–Leibler closure of FMMN and show that the joint and conditional predictive densities implied by the FMMN model are consistent estimators for a large class of data generating processes with continuous and discrete observables. The method can be used as a robust regression model with discrete and continuous dependent and independent variables and as a Bayesian alternative to semi- and non-parametric models such as quantile and kernel regression. In experiments, the method compares favorably with classical nonparametric and alternative Bayesian methods.     

Keynesian theorising during hard times: stock-flow consistent models as an unexplored 'frontier' of Keynesian macroeconomics

This paper argues that the stock-flow consistent approach tomacroeconomic modelling (SFCA) is a natural outcome of the pathtaken by Keynesian macroeconomic thought in the 1960s and 1970s,a theoretical ‘frontier’ that remained largely unexploredwith the end of Keynesian academic hegemony. It does so in twosteps. First, it phrases the representative views of Davidson,Godley, Minsky and Tobin as different ‘closures’of the same (SFC) accounting framework, calling attention totheir similarities and logical implications. Second, it discussesunresolved issues within this approach and how it differs from‘modern’ theorising.