The over-optimism among experts in assessment and foresight

It is still disputed whether foresight exercises should be based on top-expert assessments or on a broader base of less specialised experts, and whether the self-rating of experts is an acceptable method. Using the German 1993 and the Austrian 1998 Technology Delphis, this study addresses both questions. Self-rating is, in fact, an appropriate method for selecting experts. But the assessment of self-rated top experts tend to suffer from an optimism bias due to the experts' involvement and their underestimation of realisation and diffusion problems. The degree of optimism is positively correlated with the degree of self-rated knowledge, and it is more pronounced for the least pioneering and for organizational innovations. Experts with top self-ratings working in business have a stronger optimism bias than those working in the academia or in the administration: Consistent with the insider hypothesis, they are most optimistic with regard to realisation, innovativeness, and potential leadership in economic exploitation. Given the optimism bias, foresight exercises should base their panels on a fair mixture of experts of different grades, with different types of knowledge and affiliation, and not only on top specialists of the respective field. Delphi-type exercises, therefore, offer an advantage relative to forum groups or small panels of specialists.     

油井水泥产品质量现状分析

结合2000～2005年对各油田油井水泥的质量监督工作，对我国油井水泥使用的标准、产品工艺、产品质量现状进行了分析。     

A comparative site evaluation study for relocating Japanese government agencies out of Tokyo

As a national project of Japan, plans for the relocation of several government agencies out of Tokyo have been ongoing. This paper is concerned with the problem of site selection for this project. The National Land Agency, the agency responsible for this project, has declared that the process of site selection should be rational, open to the public and easily understandable. In an effort to meet these requirements, we propose a consensus-making method for reaching a group decision, based on a combination of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the Assurance Region model of data envelopment analysis (DEA). Several strategic uses of these methodologies, e.g., Delphi procedures, are also discussed. Based on these analyses, the “Wise Men” Committee for deciding the best site has chosen two from among ten contenders, one from the North-East and the other from the Central part of Japan, as candidates for the best relocation site. We could not discriminate between the two with respect to the multiple criteria chosen for evaluating sites. The Committee recommended the two sites to the Prime Minister at the end of December 1999. The Prime Minister reported this conclusion to the Diet. This topic is currently the focus of political discussions in the Diet. In this report, the authors summarize the decision-making processes that the Wise Men Committee followed, putting emphasis on the methodological aspects.     

自适应调制与编码系统及其在WCDMA中的应用

本文主要讨论自适应调制与编码系统(Adaptive Modulation and Coding system）的原理，介绍AMCS实现的几个关键技术，包括RCPT（速率适配凿孔turbo）码、高阶调制、H-ARQ和MIMO（多输入多输出）系统。介绍了在WCDMA的高速下行分组接入业务（HSDPA）中使用的自适应调制编码机制，并讨论了可能增加的设备复杂度。     

机动平台识别器方位零值的几种标校方法

方位零值标校是识别器设邸统标校的一项重要内容。针对机动平台识别器设备进场安装，提出了几种标校方法，旨在解决机动平台识别器的方位零值标校问题。     

基于Delphi7.0的物流货运信息管理系统的设计与实现方法

当今,我国货运企业的信息化建设尚处在起步阶段,信息化总体水平还比较落后,导致企业经营管理水平低,运输效率差,效益难以充分发挥.本文介绍的系统以Access 2000作为后台数据库,用Delphi7.0作程序开发工具,讨论物流货运信息管理系统的基本架构和其相关的技术.     

盾构始发技术在沈阳地铁一号线中的应用

文章结合沈阳地铁一号线第4合同段盾构的正常始发,通过对盾构始发施工的技术难点分析,重点介绍其施工工艺及关键技术,并对常见的问题提出相应的预防措施。     

A two-stage stratified Warner’s randomized response model using optimal allocation

This paper applies Kim and Wardes (2004) stratified Warners randomized response model to Mangat and Singhs (1990) two-stage randomized response model. The proposed stratified randomized response model has an optimal allocation and a large gain in precision. Hence, the estimator based on the proposed method is more efficient than Kim and Wardes (2004) and Mangat and Singhs (1990) estimators under the conditions presented in both the case of completely truthful reporting and that of not completely truthful reporting by the respondents.     

Assessment and selection of management consultants: A comparative cognitive study between small- and large-scale companies

This paper explores alternative ways of evaluating and ultimately hiring a generalist consultancy for short- and medium-term projects, and how this is shaped by the size of the clients’ company. What buying factors do managers of small and large firms have in mind when hiring consultants for their projects?Instead of employing surveys incorporating predefined buying factors based on what the researchers think would be important, a cognitive mapping methodology - the repertory grid technique - is applied to investigate the underlying phenomena. Using the repertory grid technique to draw mental models is a novel research technique within the supply management field. Recent behavioral supply chain management research found the behavior of managers to be critically influenced by mental models: the lenses through which managers perceive, simplify and interpret the world.Results show differences between the buying factors used in small- and large-scale companies: managers of large companies are more ‘reputation and outcome-oriented’ and managers of small businesses are more concerned with ‘how the services are rendered’. However, both constituents stressed the importance of expertise, quality and the relationship between the client and the management consultancy, although the character of such a relationship differed between small- and large-scale firms. Results also point out criteria that managers of small and large companies employ to discriminate between good and poor performing consultancies and to judge service delivery. The practical implications for both companies hiring consultancies and the consultancy companies are discussed. For consultancies, our findings can help tailoring their efforts to a differing clientele when marketing and selling their services. For companies hiring consultancies, fixating too much on particular buying factors may lead to biased decisions.     

工程计价模式改革与投标报价的研究

适应我国加入WTO与国际工程管理接轨的需要，推行工程量清单计价模式已势在必行，广大施工企业必须及时转变观念，加强针对新的计价模式相适应的投标报价技巧研究，为企业参与投标竞争，自主报价打下良好的基础。