On the direct and indirect effects of the Great East Japan earthquake on self rated health through social connections: Mediation analysis

The Great East Japan Earthquake created health hazards for many people. Using Panel Data gathered in Iwanuma city, Japan, at two points in time (in 2010 before the quake, and in 2013 after the quake), we found that the high degree of housing damage negatively affected victims’ self rated health (SRH) (direct effect), and decreased the levels of their social connections, which in turn also had a harmful effect on their SRH (indirect effect). We also found that although the direct impacts of earthquakes disappear relatively quickly, the harmful indirect effects associated with a decrease in social connections are slower to dissipate. We conducted a first-difference two-step GMM estimation to consider the possible problem of endogeneity. The results support the above conclusion, and show that in the short-term, the indirect impacts of the earthquake accounted for 55 % of all the impacts experienced.     

Relief aid stocking decisions under bilateral agency cooperation

We aim to quantify the benefits of cooperation between humanitarian relief agencies in terms of stocking decisions. We consider two agencies that stock the same type of relief item at different locations prone to individual disaster risks and agree to transship the shortage amount from available stocks in case of a disaster. We incorporate the disaster risk to the Newsvendor model by conditioning the stock quantity decisions on the event that a major disaster occurs within the lifetime of the stocked relief item. We optimize the stock quantity for each agency in response to the other's quantity and compute a Nash Equilibrium solution numerically. We apply this game theoretic approach to the case of earthquake preparedness in Istanbul to optimize the stocking decisions of an agency for shelter units in cooperation with another agency. We investigate the characteristics of the solutions under various parameter settings and identify cases in which cooperation may be beneficial to one or both of the agencies.     

关于国家大安全观与小康安全建设思路的探讨

全面小康社会并非仅仅是一个富裕程度的概念，还是一个生产力水平、国际竞争力的概念。全面建设小康社会，追求的是物质、精神、生态、安全文明的共同发展。所以。衡量小康社会的标准除了经济指标外，还必须包括关乎国计民生的社会人文指标。     

我国证券纠纷调解机制的完善和金融申诉专员制度合理要素的借鉴

我国新修订的《证券法》于2020年3月1日正式施行。作为资本市场根本法规,《证券法》新增第六章"投资者保护"可谓亮点之一,其中第94条规定"强制调解制度"在诉讼和仲裁之外为投资者提供了新的维权路径,加强对投资者的事后保护。但目前我国证券纠纷调解机制仍有诸多问题,例如法律条文碎片化、调解协议刚性不足、调解衔接机制不完善、调解机构体系混乱、监督机制不力等,这些弊病从根本上严重影响证券纠纷调解机制的制度设计和程序运行。本文拟通过分析英国金融申诉专员制度的成熟经验,为我国证券纠纷调解机制的完善和发展提出优化路径。     

困境与出路:纳税人权利救济体系的完善

当前,我国税收征管实践中税务争议数量增多且日益复杂化,纳税人权利救济成为保障税务部门公正执法的重要路径。然而,我国纳税人权利救济体系仍存在诸多问题,导致纳税人行政复议权和行政诉讼权保障不充分。基于此,本文从三个视角进行了分析:一是提出"清税前置"和"复议前置"规则下纳税人权利救济体系的维权阻碍及其成本,并基于"当事人主义"提出改革路径;二是基于审查范围和审查力度提出纳税人权利救济体系低效及其修正的逻辑机制;三是从审理机构设置与案件事实查明的难易程度等视角分析纳税人权利救济裁判结果的质量与公信力。     

Landslide risk perception survey in Angra dos Reis (Rio de Janeiro,southeastern Brazil): A contribution to support planning of non structural measures

The increasing magnitude and frequency of landslide-related disasters exposes weaknesses in disaster risk reduction (DRR) policy. One of the underlying reasons is that DRR policies tend to focus only on the physical aspects of the problem (i.e. mass movement processes) while neglecting the level of vulnerability of exposed populations to landslide threats, which affects the types and magnitude of adverse consequences. This neglect is a typical symptom of the remoteness that can exist between public administrators and local communities and undermines the implementation of participatory risk management. Certain dimensions of vulnerability depend on how communities relate to the issue of disasters based on their intuitive or rational judgment, i.e. their perception of risk. This paper seeks to shed light on the need for an understanding of risk perception based on the findings from a survey of residents in the city of Angra dos Reis, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, to be taken into account in aiming at a more efficient landslide risk management policy. The survey was carried out through semi-structured face-to-face interviews with residents of three typical hillside communities in this municipality. In general, the study found that residents will often weigh landslide risks against other threats and opportunities existing where they live. It also found that community members find it difficult to see themselves as agents of change in the environment where they live and in mitigating landslide risks, and that better communication is needed between the government agencies involved in risk management and local residents.     

Integrating uncertain user-generated demand data when locating facilities for disaster response commodity distribution

This paper presents a new facility location problem variant with application in disaster relief. The problem is unique in that both verified data and unverified user-generated data are available for consideration during decision making. The problem is motivated by the recent need of integrating unverified social data (e.g., Twitter posts) with data from more traditional sources, such as on-the-ground assessments and aerial flyovers, to make optimal decisions during disaster relief. Integrating social data can enable identifying larger numbers of needs in shorter amounts of time, but because the information is unverified, some of it may be inaccurate. This paper seeks to provide a “proof of concept” illustrating how the unverified social data may be exploited. To do so, a framework for incorporating uncertain user-generated data when locating Points of Distribution (PODs) for disaster relief is presented. Then, three decision strategies that differ in how the uncertain data is considered are defined. Finally, the framework and decision strategies are demonstrated via a small computational study to illustrate the benefits user-generated data may afford across a variety of disaster scenarios.     

How much could refuges help us recover from a global catastrophe?

Some global catastrophes (such as nuclear wars, pandemics, or an asteroid collision) might destroy civilization. Some propose building well-stocked shelters constantly staffed with people trained to rebuild civilization in such cases. These “refuges” would have an unimpressive expected cost per life saved, but could conceivably have an impressive expected cost per future generation allowed to exist. From some ethical perspectives that highly value future generations, building refuges may therefore seem like a promising idea. However, several factors significantly dilute the potential impact of refuges, even if the proposed catastrophes occur. Government/private disaster shelters, people working on submarines, and isolated peoples who prefer to be left alone serve these purposes to some extent already. Many proposed catastrophes do too much/too little damage for refuges to help, affect the environment in ways that make refuges largely irrelevant, or otherwise give relatively limited advantages to the people in refuges. In global food crises or social collapse scenarios, refuges would add little to aggregate stocks of population, resources, food, and relevant skills; but they may add something unique in terms of isolation and coordination. These potential benefits of refuges seem the most promising, and may be worthy of further analysis.     

Planning the delivery of relief supplies upon the occurrence of a natural disaster while considering the assembly process of the relief kits

Models for the distribution of relief supplies often assume immediate availability of relief items upon the occurrence of a natural disaster. However, such an assumption does not always apply in realistic settings. In some cases, at least it is necessary to assemble relief items into kits before distributing them among the affected population. This paper presents a rolling horizon methodology that considers dynamic parameters such as demand, capacities and demand priorities for the problem of distributing relief supplies after the occurrence of a natural disaster by including such assembling activities before the delivery.     

Venture capital trusts and the expiration of IPO lock-up provisions

Venture capital trusts (VCTs) were introduced to provide private equity capital for small expanding companies and to promote innovation. Investors in initial public offerings are rewarded with tax relief on the cost of lock-up provisions to stabilize the market. This paper examines the market reaction and trading activity around the expiration of lock-up provisions of 148 VCTs listed on the London Stock Exchange from 1995 to 2006. Downward-sloping demand curve theory suggests that an increased supply of VCT shares at the expiry date could shift their value to a new equilibrium at a lower price. Supporting this prediction, we document evidence of negative abnormal returns as well as permanent increases in the price discount relative to net asset value and trading volumes at and around the expiries of the required holding periods of VCTs. In addition, less negative abnormal returns, lower abnormal discounts and lower abnormal trading volumes are associated with VCTs that invest in AIM-listed companies due to lower information asymmetry, that experience lower prior performance due to a less pronounced disposition effect, and that are subject to a shorter lock-up horizon or are offering more generous tax benefits.