Non-linear Gaussian sovereign CDS pricing models

Prior literature indicates that quadratic models and the Black–Karasinski model are very promising for CDS pricing. This paper extends these models and the Black [J. Finance 1995, 50, 1371–1376] model for pricing sovereign CDS’s. For all 10 sovereigns in the sample quadratic models best fit CDS spreads in-sample, and a four factor quadratic model can account for the joint effects on CDS spreads of default risk, default loss risk and liquidity risk with no restriction to factors correlation. Liquidity risk appears to affect sovereign CDS spreads. However, quadratic models tend to over-fit some CDS maturities at the expense of other maturities, while the BK model is particularly immune from this tendency. The Black model seems preferable because its out-of-sample performance in the time series dimension is the best.     

离散选择模型的基本原理及其发展演进评介

离散选择模型的研究真正兴起于19世纪50年代末，属于微观计量经济学的范畴。该模型能够对个体和家庭行为进行经验性的统计分析，因而在经济学和其他社会科学中得到广泛的应用。本文从离散选择模型的基本性质及效用最大化的理论背景出发，指出logit模型虽然使用的是最早并且最为广泛的离散选择模型，但是其存在着三大局限性：不能表示随机口味的变化、暗含成比例的替代形式和不能处理不可观测因素在不同期间相关的情形。GEV（含嵌套logit）、probit和混合logit模型等其他的离散选择模型，很大程度上都是为了避免这些限制而产生并发展起来的。     

Small dimension PDE for discrete Asian options

This paper presents an efficient method for pricing discrete Asian options in presence of smile and non-proportional dividends. Using an homogeneity property, we show how to reduce an n0 dimensional problem to a one- or two-dimensional one. We examine different numerical specifications of our dimension reduced PDE using a Crank–Nicholson method (interpolation method, grid boundaries, time and space steps) as well as the extension to the case of non-proportional discrete dividends, using a jump condition. We benchmark our results with Quasi Monte-Carlo simulation and a multi-dimensional PDE     

Noisy signaling in discrete time

This paper characterizes the equilibrium set of a dynamic noisy-signaling model in discrete time. A seller privately knows the quality of her asset. She can exert a costly effort to generate stochastic returns. Buyers stochastically arrive over time and, after observing the history of returns, they make price offers. In our model, the equilibrium behavior of the buyers is discontinuous: they only make acceptable (high) offers if the posterior about the quality is above a given threshold. As a result, the recursive nature of the model replicates the discontinuity, giving the equilibrium continuation payoff a complex self-replicating structure that may take the form of a devil’s staircase.     

Consumers’ willingness-to-pay for food safety labels in an emerging market: The case of fresh produce in Thailand

Food safety systems in emerging markets are currently facing a transformation period, becoming more stringent because of an increasing demand for safer food. Consequently, policy makers need to find strategies to increase food safety while giving the industry time to improve their performance. In Thailand, policy makers have adopted the strategy of upgrading food safety standards gradually. Government and private food safety brands and labels were introduced onto the market but little is known whether Thai consumers have preferences for them or not. This study is aimed at evaluating Thai consumers’ preferences for food safety labels and brands on fresh produce, using a surveyed based on discrete-choice experiments. A sample of 350 Thai consumers was surveyed in Bangkok and Nonthaburi in 2013. Quota sampling according to the shopping outlets and convenience sampling methods were adopted. Two hundred respondents were recruited at fresh-food markets and 150 respondents were recruited at supermarkets. We found that consumers are willing-to-pay more for both government led food safety label and private brands, but that there is high heterogeneity in their preferences. The high degree of social desirability for food safety labels confirms that food safety labelling policy should be supported. However, the provision of information and credibility are vital in order to mitigate the risk of consumer deception by self-claimed labels.     

Valuation of forward start options under affine jump-diffusion models

Under the general affine jump-diffusion framework of Duffie et al. [Econometrica, 2000, 68, 1343–1376], this paper proposes an alternative pricing methodology for European-style forward start options that does not require any parallel optimization routine to ensure square integrability. Therefore, the proposed methodology is shown to possess a better accuracy–efficiency trade-off than the usual and more general approach initiated by Hong [Forward Smile and Derivative Pricing. Working paper, UBS, 2004] that is based on the knowledge of the forward characteristic function. Explicit pricing solutions are also offered under the nested jump-diffusion setting proposed by Bakshi et al. [J. Finance, 1997, 52, 2003–2049], which accommodates stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates, and different integration schemes are numerically tested.     

A MILP model for planning the trips of dynamic positioned tankers with variable travel time

The transportation of the crude oil produced in offshore oilfields to onshore terminals is performed by vessels, known as shuttle tankers. Scheduling shuttle-tanker operations entails solving complex problems to ensure a timely offloading of the platforms, taking into account several logistics and inventory constraints. This work proposes a new MILP formulation that advances previous works by considering variable travel time between platforms and terminals. The combination of the MILP formulation with an optimization solver constitutes a decision-support tool to aid engineers reach optimal decisions for a planning horizon. To handle large-scale instances, rolling-horizon and relax-and-fix strategies are proposed.     

Discrete credit barrier models

The model introduced in this article is designed to provide a consistent representation for both the real-world and pricing measures for the credit process. We find that good agreement with historical and market data can be achieved across all credit ratings simultaneously. The model is characterized by an underlying stochastic process that takes on values on a discrete lattice and represents credit quality. Rating transitions are associated with barrier crossings and default events are associated with an absorbing state. The stochastic process has state-dependent volatility and jumps which are estimated by using empirical migration and default rates. A risk-neutralizing drift is estimated to consistently match the average spread curves corresponding to all the various ratings.     

Selecting make-to-stock and postponement policies for different products in a chemical plant: A case study using discrete event simulation

We present a guideline for selecting the inventory management policy for a specialty chemical plant that produces products with limited shelf life, by producing multiple grades of bulk chemical and packaging them into a large variety of bottles. The policy for each product was selected based on a cost-benefit analysis, using the multiple objectives of maximizing the on time order fulfillment, minimizing the production (cleaning and shelf life expiration) and inventory costs. To generate realistic cost estimates, we developed a discrete event simulation model that included demand variability, planning and scheduling policies, and operational details. We evaluated three different policies: make-to-stock (MTS), postponement, and combined MTS/postponement. We also evaluated different storage media and optimized the number of storage units for products selected for postponement. A combined MTS/postponement policy, in which postponement is applied to products with low to medium demand and high expiration provided lowest costs without significantly impacting the customer on time order fulfillment. For all other products, a MTS policy is applied to maximize order fulfillment on time, reduce cleaning costs and to reduce number of storage units.