中国股市行业风险与宏观经济之间的风险传导机制

本文采用行业收益率溢出指数度量股市行业风险,并进一步研究中国股市行业风险与宏观经济的相互影响,同时引入股息率和利率两个中介渠道深入挖掘其传导机制。我们运用GARCH-in-Mean模型对股市行业风险和宏观经济变量之间的一阶矩和二阶矩相互关系同时进行分析,结果发现,股市行业风险和宏观经济变量之间水平值和波动率都存在双向影响,对外溢出效应较大的行业起主导作用。此外,股市行业风险对宏观经济变量的影响方面,股息率和利率均起到中介渠道作用;宏观经济变量对股市行业风险的影响方面,只是利率起到中介渠道作用。股市行业风险与宏观经济的传导效应在不同时期差异显著。本文研究结论有助于深刻理解金融与实体经济之间的风险传导机制,对防范系统性风险、防止金融和实体经济“风险共振”以及提升金融服务实体经济能力等具有参考意义。     

Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade

World trade evolves at two margins. Where a bilateral trading relationship already exists it may increase through time (intensive margin). But trade may also increase if a trading bilateral relationship is newly established between countries that have not traded with each other in the past (extensive margin). We provide an empirical dissection of post–World War II growth in manufacturing world trade along these two margins. We propose a “corner-solutions version” of the gravity model to explain movements on both margins. A Tobit estimation of this model resolves the so-called “distance puzzle”. It also finds more convincing evidence than recent literature that WTO-membership enhances trade. JEL no. F12, F15     

From the margins: globalization with(out) home economics

Pies and peas, noughts and crosses, fish and chips, chicken and egg, teaching and learning, home economics and . . . globalization? In psychotherapy, this simple technique of providing a word and another automatically coming to mind is called free association and some of the internationally accepted pairings are noted above. Do we want ‘home economics’ and ‘globalization’ to have an automatic association? In this paper, I argue that home economics must make a shift from the margins of patriarchy by re‐thinking the ways in which the field is legitimized and positioned if it is to be a key player in taking on the challenges and dilemmas raised by globalization.     

社会主义市场经济的矛盾和问题

市场经济的主要矛盾是生产与消费的矛盾，它决定商品与货币、供给与需求、总供给与总需求的矛盾。社会主义市场经济的主要矛盾是社会主义制度与市场经济体制的矛盾。当前存在的主要问题是生产相对过剩、消费需求不足，分配不够公平、贫富差距过大，市场秩序混乱、腐败现象严重，资源消耗过度、环境状况恶化，等等。只有正确处理社会主义市场经济的矛盾和问题，处理好公有制和私有制、计划与市场、效率与公平、自力更生与对外开放等各方面的关系，才能促进国民经济又好又快地发展。     

转型进程、发展战略转变与金融转型

随着经济转型从体制转型阶段进入到经济发展阶段,中国的经济发展战略也应当从比较优势转向竞争优势。而转型进程以及发展战略的转变都内在统一于经济发展的虚拟化进程当中。现代经济发展的虚拟化强化了金融在整个经济体系中的核心作用,因而随着中国成为完全市场经济国家,金融转型的成败将对中国向好的市场经济迈进起着决定性的作用。     

浅议“人才退出”机制

在经济全球化的今天,市场经济理念深入人心,人们逐渐接受了竞争意识、企业裁员已成为常有的事,但裁员的负面效应往往为人们所忽略,建立完善的人才退出机制任重而道远。     

Land Reform: Taking a Long(er) View

The paper proposes a broad argument that the end of state–led development from the 1970s coincided with (i) the final wave of major redistributive land reform, and its place within transitions to capitalism, that lasted from about 1910 to the 1970s, and (ii) the beginnings of contemporary 'globalization'. Self–styled 'new wave' agrarian reform in the age of neo–liberalism, centred on property rights, is unlikely to deliver much on its claims to both stimulate agricultural productivity and reduce rural poverty. The reasons are grounded in the basic relations and dynamics of capitalism, and how these are intensified and reshaped by and through globalization. Understanding these processes, with all their inevitable unevenness, requires (i) recognizing that the historical conditions of the 'classic' agrarian question no longer apply, and (ii) developing the means to investigate and understand better the changing realities facing different agrarian classes within a general tendency to the concentration of capital and fragmentation of labour, including how the latter may generate new agrarian questions of labour.     

试析"入世"与我国经济发展

加入WTO，我国经济与世界经济融为一体，给我国经济带来全新的历史机遇，有利于我国现代企业制度的建立和经济改革的发展，有利于提高人民生活水平，有利于农、林、牧均衡发展和生态建设。同时也带来了挑战，必须转变政府职能，致力环境创新，建立与国际接轨的社会主义市场经济体制，依托科教进步，实施跨越式发展。     

论我国经济转型时期新一轮经济结构调整的任务及政策取向

在计划经济向市场经济转轨的条件下 ,我国宏观经济出现了由供给约束向需求约束的转型 ,在转型中宏观经济的结构性矛盾日益严重。这一结构性矛盾具有综合性、深层次性、萎缩性特征。在转型时期 ,新一轮经济结构战略性调整的任务是积极发展高新技术产业 ,搞好国有企业的职能定位 ,优化经济结构 ,提高国民经济的整体素质。新一轮经济结构调整政策取向的内涵是 :全面推进市场化改革 ,形成以市场为基础的经济结构调整 ;解决结构优化过程中的制度缺位问题 ;进一步调整国有经济结构 ,加快非公有制经济的发展 ;发展特色经济 ,提升产业结构。     

关于经济全球化及中国构建应对机制的认知

所谓经济全球化,是指生产要素在全球范围内的广泛流动,实现资源的最佳配置的过程,经济全球化是人类社会经济发展的必然要求和结果.经济全球化给我国的发展带来挑战,同时也提供了难得的机遇,我国需构建应对经济全球化的机制.