伯南克货币政策主张及其影响-分析与预期

伯南克已于2006年2月1日接替格林斯潘担任了美国联邦储备理事会主席。本文分析伯南克的货币政策主张特征,比较这些主张与格林斯潘和其任内联储货币政策主张、决策风格的异同,并据此预期伯南克货币政策主张及其对联储货币政策的影响。     

Fundamental disagreement

We document a novel set of facts about disagreement among professional forecasters: (1) forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the long run; (2) the term structure of disagreement is downward sloping for real output growth, relatively flat for inflation, and upward sloping for the federal funds rate; (3) disagreement is time varying at all horizons. We propose a generalized model of imperfect information that can jointly explain these facts. We further use the term structure of disagreement to show that the monetary policy rule perceived by professional forecasters features a high degree of interest-rate smoothing and time variation in the intercept.     

Price competition in a differentiated products duopoly under network effects

We examine price competition under product-specific network effects, in a duopoly where the products are differentiated both horizontally and vertically. We emphasize the role of consumers’ expectations formation. When expectations are not influenced by prices, the market may be shared but shares must be equal unless product qualities differ or one firm, possibly even the low-quality one, may capture the entire market. When expectations are influenced by prices, which would be the case when there is commitment, competition becomes more intense and the high-quality firm tends to capture a larger market share. Under strong network effects there is a continuum of equilibria and the higher the prices, the smaller the difference between those prices can be. Requiring continuity of expectations, however, delivers a unique equilibrium where one firm captures the entire market.     

Learning, monetary policy rules, and macroeconomic stability

Several papers have documented a regime switch in US monetary policy from ‘passive’ and destabilizing in the pre-1979 period to ‘active’ and stabilizing afterwards. These studies typically work with DSGE models with rational expectations.This paper relaxes the assumption of rational expectations and allows for learning instead. Economic agents form expectations from simple models and update the parameters through constant-gain learning. In this setting, the paper aims to test whether monetary policy may have been a source of macroeconomic instability in the 1970s by inducing unstable learning dynamics.The model is estimated by Bayesian methods. The constant-gain coefficient is jointly estimated with the structural and policy parameters in the system.The results show that monetary policy was respecting the Taylor principle also in the pre-1979 period and, therefore, did not trigger macroeconomic instability.     

Output Expectations and Forecasting of UK Manufacturing

This paper analyses both quarterly data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Survey on respondents’ expectations of recent and forthcoming manufacturing output and monthly Office of National Statistics (ONS) figures on actual manufacturing output within the UK. Quarterly output expectations of the CBI manufacturers are explained from the monthly ONS observations using a bounded rationality approach. The logistic formulation models the diffusion process across respondents. There is a backward-looking CBI Survey perspective, explained by past ONS observations, and a forward-looking perspective, explained from future ONS statistics. Also, the forecasting of monthly manufacturing output from earlier values, along with the quarterly CBI Survey information, is examined and tested against the alternative Pesaran/Thomas method. The study provides econometric evidence for the validity of the logistic model and shows that bounded rationality can explain the formation of predictions among business managers in the UK manufacturing sector. The emerging consensus from the literature, supported by this paper, is that the logistic format is a superior approximation to the true data generating process compared with the earlier standard Anderson/Pesaran/Thomas approach. An adjustment to the Survey is used, which achieves perfect symmetry with up and down versions of the data. The benefits of this adjustment are tested in the forecasting section.

Two early Swedish debates about Wicksell's cumulative process

The paper contains a survey and analysis of two debates between Wicksell and a number of Swedish economists concerning the cumulative process. The debates illustrate various problems with the analytical formulation of the cumulative process and how these problems were dealt with by the participants. Inter alia the institutional framework (inside versus outside money), excess demand or interest gap as an engine of inflation, the natural and the normal rate of interest, the relationship between the real and the monetary parts of the economy and price expectations are discussed in the paper.     

Dynamic Factor Demands and Technology Measurement under Arbitrary Expectations

We present a dynamic model of factor demands based on expected discounted costs minimization. While making only very mild assumptions on expectations and technology, we are able to establish a duality relationship between contemporary factor demands and the technology, and we provide formula for easily recovering marginal products, returns to scale, and technological change from estimated factor demands. Parametrization and implementation are illustrated in a detailed example.     

Understanding customers’ healthy food choices at casual dining restaurants: Using the Value–Attitude–Behavior model

This study examined how individual health values influence interest in healthy foods, positive outcome expectations, hedonic expectations, and behavior intentions. A total of 1188 valid questionnaires were collected from customers who had consumed healthy menu items at casual dining restaurants. The results indicated that health value was the key element that inspired customer interest in healthy eating and aroused hedonic and positive outcome expectations, which in turn enhanced intentions to purchase healthy food items. Restaurant managers are advised to establish creative marketing strategies to motivate customer interest in healthy menu items and emphasize benefits of their healthy food items. Future studies can extend the scope of research by examining differences in geographical areas or demographic profiles.     

Expectations,network effects and timing of technology adoption: some empirical evidence from a sample of SMEs in Italy

We provide evidence on the influence of expectations and network effects on the timing of technological adoption. By considering a sample of SMEs operating in Italy, we focus on the determinants of their decision to adopt Fast Ethernet, a communication standard for Local Area Networks (LANs). We find that both expectations and network effects significantly affect the timing of adoption. In particular, price expectations generally tend to delay adoption and (indirect) network effects in the form of backward compatibility as well as informational spillovers tend to foster adoption. Firm size also matters.

Downsizing and the changing role of HR

This paper examines the changing role of HR in the specific context of downsizing. It highlights the key dilemmas facing HR professionals - on the one hand, the contribution of HRM to the achievement of business results has come under increasing scrutiny and, on the other hand, most of the challenges of downsizing are people-related issues that require sophisticated HR interventions. The paper reports the key findings of a pilot study conducted in sixty organizations in the UK that downsized in the last three years. The key conclusion of the study is that the role of HR has become wide ranging, covering the strategic as well as implementation aspects. The clear message from the study suggests that, unless there is alignment between the two aspects, the envisaged benefits of downsizing are unlikely take place. Key challenges facing HR professionals are managing middle managers, managing careers and managing employee expectations. There are indications to suggest that the process role of HR is likely to become more important in the medium and longer terms.