Victory margins and the paradox of voting

This paper addresses a simple question: why do people vote? Though simple, this question remains unanswered despite the considerable attention it has received. In this paper, I show that purely rational–instrumental factors explain a large fraction of turnout variations, provided that the effect of the margin of victory on implemented policy is considered. I extend Myerson's models of elections based on Poisson games, and show that, when platforms are responsive to vote shares, the predictions of the model become consistent with several stylized facts, including the secular fall in turnout rates in the US.     

Catching up with the Americans

This paper develops an international version of the consumption-based capital asset pricing (CCAPM), which we refer to as “catching up with the Americans.” Previous CCAPM research develops the concept of “catching up with the Joneses,” where a representative economic agent exhibits higher marginal utility of consumption as a result of higher past per capita consumption in his own country. Catching up with the Americans, on the other hand, is an international habit-preference hypothesis. It extends the idea of catching up with the Joneses by stating that consumers of non-U.S. countries gain higher marginal utility of consumption as a result of higher past American consumption growth. Contrary to much of the CCAPM literature, we test this version of the model using long bond rates rather than equity returns. However, like most of the previous research on the CCAPM, the catching up with the Americans model fails to explain the relationship between consumption and asset returns.     

Aggregate Dividend Behavior and Permanent Earnings Hypothesis

The study examines the aggregate dividend behavior of U.S. corporations based on the permanent earnings hypothesis. Using annual data of aggregate earnings and dividends from 1871–1993, I find that although managers change dividends proportional to permanent earnings changes, they make revisions with a larger percentage change in dividends than in permanent earnings. The results from the post‐war data show that firms follow a partial adjustment policy with a long‐term dividend payout target in mind and make revisions with a delay. The quarterly data analysis yields results similar to those of the post‐war annual data.     

Pre-Harvest Price Expectations for Corn: The Information Content of USDA Reports and New Crop Futures

This article examines the puzzle of why futures prices continue to react to USDA crop reports despite the fact that reports appear to be no longer "newsworthy," that is, provide no better production estimates than private forecasts. The information value of reports is measured in terms of their influence on rational agents' harvest-time corn price expectations, which are uncovered using a Hamilton-type modeling approach. Results show that reports are still "newsworthy," as they would contribute to agents' price expectations if released a day early. Thus futures price reactions, which closely reflect price expectations, are rational and consistent with efficient markets hypothesis.     

Hypothesis tests using data envelopment analysis

A substantial body of recent work has opened the way to exploring the statistical properties of DEA estimators of production frontiers and related efficiency measures. The purpose of this paper is to survey several possibilities that have been pursued, and to present them in a unified framework. These include the development of statistics to test hypotheses about the characteristics of the production frontier, such as returns to scale, input substitutability, and model specification, and also about variation in efficiencies relative to the production frontier.     

新古典经济学假设与组织理论

通过对新古典经济学假设的分析 ,证明组织的充分存在理由 :组织是经济人实现其目标的手段 ,组织理论应该成为新古典经济学假设的前提。首先 ,对新古典经济学假设进行全面分析并找出其不足。其次 ,分析组织存在的意义以及组织理论对新古典经济学假设的支撑和前提作用。     

探究“新零销售”模式下影响销售量的相关因素

在新零销售模式的推动下,客户越来越倾向于消费个性化的商品。为了精准预测客户的消费需求,论文以单款单色产品为研究对象,通过建立多元回归分析的数学模型,来探究影响商品销售量的相关因素。经过分析发现,除了一些定性因素外,定量因素对销售量也产生了一定的影响,其中实际花费总金额、实际销售单价、库存数等定量因素对销售量的影响较大,且各个变量之间具有相关性,所以电商平台应特别关注这三个变量的影响。     

Economic liberalization and welfare in a model with an informal sector

The paper reexamines the conventional results relating to inflow of foreign capital, removal of protectionism and structural reform programmes, in a small open economy in terms of a two-sector general equilibrium model with an informal sector. The paper shows that in the presence of labour market distortion and a protectionist policy, inflow of foreign capital may be desirable irrespective of the pattern of trade of the economy due to its favourable impact on welfare. But the welfare implications of tariff reductions and/or structural adjustment programmes, such as deregulating the formal sector labour market, depend crucially on the economy's trade pattern. The paper provides an answer to the question as to whether in a developing economy labour market reform and tariff reform should go hand-in-hand or whether one should precede the other for welfare improvement.
JEL classification: F10, F13, F21, O17.     

The Case of the Missing Pollution Haven Hypothesis

One particularly vexing puzzle for economists and policymakers over the past several decades concerns the empirical significance of the theoretically predicted pollution haven hypothesis. While neoclassical theory and conventional wisdom both surmise that local economies will suffer deleterious effects from stricter environmental regulations, empirical studies have largely failed to validate such claims. This study utilizes the method of matching to show that the impact of stricter regulation is heterogeneous spatially, varying systematically based on location-specific attributes. Previous studies that assume a homogenous response may therefore inadvertently mask the overall impact of more stringent regulations by pooling unaffected and affected regions.JEL Classification: Q25, Q28, H00, L51, R1The authors wish to thank to Michael Crew, Anthony Heyes, an anonymous referee, Werner Antweiler, Randy Becker, Wayne Gray, Shelby Gerking, Michael Greenstone, Vern Henderson, and Arik Levinson. Participants at various university seminars and conferences also lent useful insights to this line of research.     

西方现代股利政策理论的演进与评价

股利政策是个谜。四十多年来,西方财务学者分别从不同的角度、运用不同的方法对股利政策进行了大量的理论和实证研究。本文对此进行了较为系统和全面的回顾与评述。早期股利理论研究主要集中在股利政策与股票价格是否有关的研究上,其观点主要有在手之鸟理论和股利无关论。20世纪八十年代后,股利之争主要集中在股利为什么会引起股票价格变化,其观点有追随者效应、信号理论、代理学说和行为学派等。虽然这些学派的观点在不同程度上还存在一些缺点,但它们改变了传统理论的思维方式和分析方法,极大地扩展了财务学的研究视野,从而使股利政策研究在“量”和“质”上均产生了很大的飞跃。