Non-linear Gaussian sovereign CDS pricing models

Prior literature indicates that quadratic models and the Black–Karasinski model are very promising for CDS pricing. This paper extends these models and the Black [J. Finance 1995, 50, 1371–1376] model for pricing sovereign CDS’s. For all 10 sovereigns in the sample quadratic models best fit CDS spreads in-sample, and a four factor quadratic model can account for the joint effects on CDS spreads of default risk, default loss risk and liquidity risk with no restriction to factors correlation. Liquidity risk appears to affect sovereign CDS spreads. However, quadratic models tend to over-fit some CDS maturities at the expense of other maturities, while the BK model is particularly immune from this tendency. The Black model seems preferable because its out-of-sample performance in the time series dimension is the best.     

Variance swaps valuation under non-affine GARCH models and their diffusion limits

In this article, we investigate the pricing and convergence of general non-affine non-Gaussian GARCH-based discretely sampled variance swaps. Explicit solutions for fair strike prices under two different sampling schemes are derived using the extended Girsanov principle as the pricing kernel candidate. Following standard assumptions on time-varying GARCH parameters, we show that these quantities converge respectively to fair strikes of discretely and continuously sampled variance swaps that are constructed based on the weak diffusion limit of the underlying GARCH model. An empirical study which relies on a joint estimation using both historical returns and VIX data indicates that an asymmetric heavier tailed distribution is more appropriate for modelling the GARCH innovations. Finally, we provide several numerical exercises to support our theoretical convergence results in which we further investigate the effect of the quadratic variation approximation for the realized variance, as well as the impact of discrete versus continuous-time modelling of asset returns.     

An extended peer communities’ knowledge sharing approach for environmental governance

This paper is devoted to propose an approach to implement the idea of extended peer knowledge to environmental governance by means of engaging the «extended peer communities». Socially robust knowledge relies on transparency and citizen participation. These two underlying elements take the form of both assessment and post-assessment decision support systems. Initially, during the assessment process citizens and stakeholders are engaged in the framing, proposal of alternatives, and evaluation criteria. Then the analysts assessed the alternatives proposed by means of DSS. Then, in a second stage, the analysts inspired in the idea of transparency, gave back the assessment result to the «extended peer community» who were able to give their opinion regarding the results and suggest potential parametric changes that were used for sensitivity analyses. The authors explore the proposed extended peer communities’ knowledge sharing for environmental governance assessment using a case study applied to a sustainable mobility planning process carried out in Tenerife (Canary Islands). The results gathered highlight that this approach is of use for guaranteeing the robustness of complex environmental decisions under high levels of uncertainty.     

Brand effect on extended warranty valuation: Subjective value versus popularity

In five experiments, we explore the effect of brands on warranty valuation and the conditions under which two mechanisms – liking based and availability based – determine the effect. We explore the moderating role of focused deliberation, which accentuates the brand effect under availability mechanism but reduces the effect under subjective value-based mechanism. In Experiment 1, we consider brands that vary in terms of both subjective value and popularity. When a brand is better in both subjective value and popularity, it commands higher warranty WTP. Focused deliberation moderates this effect of brand on warranty valuation. In Experiment 2, we consider brands that vary only in terms of subjective values (but not popularity). While the warranty valuation of the two brands does not differ under no deliberation, deliberation decreases WTP for brands with higher subjective value. In Experiment 3, we consider brands that differ only in terms of popularity (and not subjective value). In this context, deliberation increases warranty WTP for the more popular brand. Experiments 2A and 3A use warranty choice as the dependent variable and conceptually replicate the effects obtained in experiments 2 and 3, respectively.     

The cointegrated vector autoregressive model with general deterministic terms

In the cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) literature, deterministic terms have until now been analyzed on a case-by-case, or as-needed basis. We give a comprehensive unified treatment of deterministic terms in the additive model $X_t=\gamma Z_t+Y_t$, where $Z_t$ belongs to a large class of deterministic regressors and $Y_t$ is a zero-mean CVAR. We suggest an extended model that can be estimated by reduced rank regression, and give a condition for when the additive and extended models are asymptotically equivalent, as well as an algorithm for deriving the additive model parameters from the extended model parameters. We derive asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators and discuss tests for rank and tests on the deterministic terms. In particular, we give conditions under which the estimators are asymptotically (mixed) Gaussian, such that associated tests are ${\chi }^2$-distributed.     

Predictors of individuals’ intention to conserve water in a lodging context: the application of an extended Theory of Reasoned Action

This study sought to develop an extended Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) model to provide a clear understanding of individuals’ intention to conserve water in a lodging context. In particular, the extended TRA incorporates two additional constructs: environmental concern and water conservation activities in everyday life, into the original TRA model. The outcomes of the present paper have shown that individuals’ attitudes, subjective norms and water conservation activities in everyday life exert a positive influence on their intention to conserve water in a lodging context. The results also revealed that environmental concern has a positive influence on individuals’ attitudes and water conservation activities in everyday life but a non-significant influence on their subjective norms. The empirical results of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) indicated that the extended model provides a better fit of the data, and explains greater amounts of variance in individuals’ intention to conserve water in a lodging context compared to the original TRA.     

A Comparison of Buyers and Nonbuyers of Extended Service Contracts

ABSTRACT

Only a few empirical research studies about extended service contracts have appeared in the services marketing literature. This study used Chi Square analysis as a methodology to distinguish between buyers and non-buyers of extended service contracts. The findings suggest that while buyers and non-buyers were very similar demographically and psychographically, there were considerable differences in motivation for purchasing or not buying. Of the ten motivation variables, eight were significant at or beyond p < 0.05. Moreover, some ethical implications for professional salespeople marketing these service contracts were discussed.     

第三代移动通信系统中用户移动性模型的研究

本文在研究第三代移动通信系统特点和分析UMTS标准模型与可扩展模型的优缺点的基础上，建立了适用于第三代移动通信系统的综合模型，研究和分析了不同类型用户情况下该综合模型的信道占用时间，并给出了仿真结果。     

The consequence of possessions: Self-identity,extended self,psychological ownership and probabilities of purchase for pet’s fashion clothing

This research attempts to exemplify whether pets ascribed as possessions can be regarded, as part of our selves, i.e., a metaphoric relationship with pets, by examining the dynamic relationship between beliefs, extended self, self-identity concerning possessions, and psychological ownership.This study extends the literature by developing a conceptual model asserting that probabilities of purchase for pets, in particular, are contingent on possessions and the extended self. A sample of 326 pet owners was selected, and by using SEM, the direct and indirect relationships were explored. Self-identity and beliefs were significantly associated with psychological control and the extended self, however, beliefs were negatively related to the probabilities of purchase. The extended self and the psychological ownership demonstrated mediating relationships. The study contributes to an understanding of the theoretical relationship between the role of possessions and provides scholars and retail practitioners with an understanding of probabilities of purchase for pet fashions.     

Analyzing tactical control strategies for aircraft arrivals at an airport using a queuing model

This paper proposes to analyze control strategies for arrival air traffic at an airport using a classical queuing model. The parameters of our model are estimated by means of a data-driven analysis of two years of radar tracks and flight plans for arrival flights at Tokyo International Airport from 2016 to 2017. Our results show that increasing the capacity with one or two more aircraft in the airspace up to 60 NM around the airport significantly mitigates arrival delays, even when assuming future, increased arrival traffic volumes. The outcomes of this study provide insights into the effectiveness of arrival control strategies and are seen as a means to recommend scenarios to be further analyzed with human-in-the-loop simulations.