A brief technology assessment of the Carbon Dioxide effect

Significant increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide are occuring as a result of fossil fuel combustion. More than a four-fold increase over preindustrial levels may occur by the year 2100. Heating of the atmosphere, changes in precipitation patterns and global storm paths, and other resulting effects are sure to cause significant social changes. This article is essentially a methodological case study demonstrating a useful but inexpensive type of technology assessment. It summarizes current research findings on “the CO₂ effect,” and presents hitherto unpublished findings that resulted from a brief but systems-oriented approach. These findings suggest that most published forecasts of phenomena associated with a CO₂ buildup may be systematically low because various positive feedback relationships are not reflected.     

论会计事项的认定与会计确认

符合确认标准的会计事项是会计确认的对象,会计确认是会计事项进入财务会计系统的第一道关口,两者关系十分密切,本文对会计事项作了科学界定,并针对不同事项的认定说明其对会计确认对象、观点和时间的影响,为科学合理地确认会计事项提供了理论指导。     

Linking scenarios across geographical scales in international environmental assessments

The development and analysis of scenarios or plausible futures has evolved to be a useful approach for dealing with uncertainty about future developments in a structured and integrated manner. Commonly, scenario exercises have focussed on processes at one specific geographic scale. Recently scenario-based approaches have also been used to address multi-scale processes or to link scenarios developed at various geographical scales with each other in order to better understand the interaction of processes across scales.The level of interconnectedness across scales will vary, and depends largely on the approaches used to develop multi-scale scenarios. We distinguish five levels of interconnectedness scenarios may display across scales: (a) Equivalent, (b) Consistent, (c) Coherent, (d) Comparable, and (e) Complementary. Furthermore, we describe five different types of coupled scenario development processes: (a) Joint, (b) Parallel, (c) Iterative, (d) Consecutive, and (e) Independent.Based on this nomenclature, the relationship between the level of interconnectedness of scenarios and the degree of coupling of scenario development processes across geographical scales is discussed. Which process is best suited and how much interconnectedness is needed, will depend both on the focal issue and the primary purpose of the scenario exercise, i.e. whether the aim is education, scientific exploration, or decision-support.     

商业银行控制利率风险的技术和工具

随着我国利率市场化改革进程的加快以及我国与世界经济和金融联系的加强 ,利率波动的频率和幅度将越来越大 ,因而商业银行将面临更大的利率风险。为此 ,本文介绍了西方商业银行如何运用持续期缺口、远期利率协议、期货、期权等技术和工具来管理和控制利率风险 ,以期对我国的商业银行有所借鉴。     

Short-sellers: Informed but restricted

According to theory, the level of short-selling can predict short-run future returns through two channels. One channel relates to the demand-side of the stock lending market: short-sellers are informed. The other channel relates to the supply-side: short-sellers are restricted. Measuring the importance of each channel is empirically challenging when, in general, supply and demand in the stock lending market are not directly observable. This paper takes advantage of a unique dataset that contains actual shifts in lending supply of stocks on the Brazilian market and proposes an identification strategy for the effects of both supply and demand on stock prices. We find that both channels are important.     

The future of the chef occupation and the food and beverage sector after the COVID-19 outbreak: Opinions of Turkish chefs

The aim of the present study is to reveal the opinions of the chefs who working as a manager in the kitchen department within the food and beverage sector about what changes might have occurred in their occupation and food and beverage sector after the COVID-19 outbreak. The data were collected through online interview forms and content analysis was used as a data analysis method. The findings reveal three main categories: general opinions after the COVID-19 outbreak, changes that could occur in the food and beverage sector after COVID-19 outbreak, and thoughts for the future of the chef occupation after the COVID-19 outbreak. Since this paper is the first to reveal the opinions of the chefs about what changes might have occurred in their occupation and food and beverage sector after the COVID-19 outbreak, and no similar study could be found in the existing literature, these findings are original.     

Future themes in the operational environment of the Finnish cadastral system

The cadastral systems used in each country and region have developed through the centuries to their current form. We cannot assume that the current situation will remain the same from this point to the future. There are signs in recent studies and development projects throughout the world that those cadastral systems which are traditionally seen as well-functioning also need to be renewed as society changes at a rapid pace.This study is set up to analyze the future needs of a cadastral system and registers related to it in Finland. The objective of the study is to reveal future themes affecting the operational environment of the cadastral system by using research methods provided by futurology. The method used in this study is called environmental scanning and it consists of three phases: collecting events, recognizing phenomena and combining the phenomena as themes.The study analyses 352 literature sources and reveals 14 different future themes in the operational environment of the cadastral system, which are economic pressure, demographic changes, development of technology, transparent society, safety, environmental values, globalization, digitalization, know-how, quality, political change, soft values, public-private partnership and crowd sourcing. The future themes, their possible relations between each other and their significance for the cadastral system are analyzed by using the concepts of megatrends, trends, wild cards, driving forces and weak signals and reflecting the results to research made in the field of land management internationally.The results can be used when renewing a cadastral system, in order to consider possible future themes that may affect the system. Detecting and recognizing the future themes provides an opportunity to react and change the course of action in order to adapt to the future. The results are not only usable in the Finnish context, but can also be applied in other countries⿿ development of their cadastre and as part of environmental scanning.     

Metaphors,semiotics and futures studies

Metaphor belongs to key concepts of semiotics. I have made my career in the field of semiotics and I appreciate the possibility to tell to the scientific community of futurists how a semiotician sees the various functions of metaphors and their connections to the future. The edited volume CLA 2.0 (Inayatullah & Milojevic, 2015) shows that in addition to metaphors, many futures researchers have found the general language-based approach of semiotics. The paper deals with three issues: first the theory of metaphors as such, much discussed in the semiotic literature; then what semiotics says about the future; and finally, what kind of semiotics we are considering here. I would propose to scrutinise the problem of metaphors and future in light of my own new theory which I call ‘existential semiotics’.     

The politics of anticipation: On knowing and governing environmental futures

In this article we describe how the historical emergence and rise of future studies, since the founding issue of Futures in 1968, has been intricately connected to the emergence and development of environmental anticipation as discourse and practice. We trace a dialectical and inter-twined relationship between technologies of environmental anticipation and forecasting, and technologies of anti-environmentalist anticipation and counter-intervention, one which we argue shapes not only the contemporary politics of anticipation, but in a very material sense, the future conditions of biological and social life on Earth. In so doing we want to address the possible contributions that the field of futures studies can make to reimagining collective agency and ways of being on Earth, whilst reflecting critically upon its genealogical relations to the political reason and strategic horizons of powerful fossil fuel interests, from the crisis of the 1970s to the present. The article also offers a more in-depth contextualization to the other articles in this special issue of Futures on “The Politics of Environmental Anticipation”. The aim is to bring to the fore the role that social scientists play in environmental anticipation − i.e. drawing attention to the fact that the future could always have been otherwise.