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Motivated by the European sovereign debt crisis, we propose a hybrid sovereign default model that combines an accessible part taking into account the evolution of the sovereign solvency and the impact of critical political events, and a totally inaccessible part for the idiosyncratic credit risk. We obtain closed‐form formulas for the probability that the default occurs at critical political dates in a Markovian setting. Moreover, we introduce a generalized density framework for the hybrid default time and deduce the compensator process of default. Finally, we apply the hybrid model and the generalized density to the valuation of sovereign bonds and explain the significant jumps in long‐term government bond yields during the sovereign crisis. 相似文献
3.
建立产业共性技术研发外包博弈模型,从政府视角研究以共性技术产出最大化为目标的最优政府支持性研发外包合同,并对最优外包合同影响因素进行分析。研究表明:足够多的政府预算是共性技术政府支持性最优研发外包合同存在的前提,最优合同条款随政府预算的增大而增多,企业保留收益增大倒逼政府预算增加;企业最优知识技术投入与共性技术价值系数以及从研发中分享的收益份额正相关,与政府支付的固定研发费用负相关;政府最优知识技术投入与固定研发费用及单位投入成本系数负相关;企业最优投入与政府投入成本系数负相关,与政府投入对研发成功的贡献系数正相关,且企业最优投入随其研发能力的增强而加大。最后,根据研究结论,从政府预算、项目前景及支持性资源分配3个方面提出共性技术研发外包合同实施的政策建议。 相似文献
4.
机构投资者与政府补贴等优惠政策作为企业经营的重要资本来源和制度保障,势必对企业技术创新产生重要影响。以我国沪深两市战略性新兴上市企业2010-2015年面板数据为研究样本,对异质机构持股、政府补贴与企业技术创新的关系进行实证分析。结果发现:机构持股对企业技术创新没有显著影响,政府补贴可以促进机构持股对企业技术创新尤其是实质性技术创新产生显著正向影响;基金持股对企业技术创新存在显著负向影响,券商持股与QFII持股对企业技术创新分别存在不显著和显著正向影响;政府补贴能够降低基金持股对企业技术创新的负向影响,有效促进基金持股对企业技术创新的正向影响,并通过调节作用促进券商持股和QFII持股对企业技术创新产生更加显著的正向效应;政府补贴对基金持股与企业非实质性技术创新关系的正向调节作用更加显著,对券商持股和QFII持股与企业实质性技术创新关系的正向调节作用更加显著。 相似文献
5.
This study proposes a hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk. In contrast to the previous literature that debates which credit risk model is the best, we pool information from a diverse set of structural and reduced‐form models to produce a model combination based on credit risk prediction. Compared with each single model, the pooled strategies yield consistently lower average risk prediction errors over time. We also find that while the reduced‐form models contribute more in the pooled strategies for speculative‐grade names and longer maturities, the structural models have higher weights for shorter maturities and investment grade names. 相似文献
6.
Funding for infrastructure projects recently shows that debt has a portion more than equity, triggering public debates. Therefore, leverage as an instrument to measure the ability and willingness of project sponsors to fund becomes the utmost importance to discuss. Relating to leverage, risk and government participation are two main factors that can explain the choice of funding decisions by the project sponsors. For this reason, this study would analyze the effect of risk and government participation on leverage through the two main sectors of infrastructure projects, namely the transportation sector and the energy sector, and derivating risk to political risk and financial risk. The objects of research were 976 infrastructure projects listed in the Asian Development Bank during 2007−2016. We use censored regression to examine the model by infrastructure sectors, both as individual and through interaction effects. The analysis showed that overall, leverage of infrastructure projects was rather influenced by financial risk than by political risk. However, the leverage of infrastructure projects in the transportation sector was more vulnerable to risk than that in other sectors. 相似文献
7.
Tim Power 《Revue internationale de statistique》2003,71(1):59-67
This paper outlines the ICT statistical developments that the ABS has undertaken over recent years. These developments have been on both the supply side (ICT industry) and the demand side (use of IT by sector). The content of ABS ICT surveys has changed significantly over the last few years and are expected to develop further in line with industry changes and emerging policy needs.
Recent developments in household collections have been the inclusion of IT use questions in the 2001 Census of Population and Housing and in various ABS social surveys such as Children's Participation in Culture and Leisure Activities. Annual business IT use surveys are now conducted and include topics such as Internet commerce and IT security. Biennial ICT industry surveys are conducted to provide data on ICT production, imports and exports, ICT industry employment, performance and structure information. An Internet activity survey is run every six months and provides regional Internet access details and infrastructure details on Internet service providers.
A major development for 2002–03 will be the compilation of an ICT satellite account. ABS intends to produce an ICT Information Development Plan to guide its future statistical development work in the ICT field. 相似文献
Recent developments in household collections have been the inclusion of IT use questions in the 2001 Census of Population and Housing and in various ABS social surveys such as Children's Participation in Culture and Leisure Activities. Annual business IT use surveys are now conducted and include topics such as Internet commerce and IT security. Biennial ICT industry surveys are conducted to provide data on ICT production, imports and exports, ICT industry employment, performance and structure information. An Internet activity survey is run every six months and provides regional Internet access details and infrastructure details on Internet service providers.
A major development for 2002–03 will be the compilation of an ICT satellite account. ABS intends to produce an ICT Information Development Plan to guide its future statistical development work in the ICT field. 相似文献
8.
This article proposes a new approach to testing for the hypothesisof a single priced risk factor driving the term structure ofinterest rates. The method does not rely on any parametric specificationof the state variable dynamics or the market price of risk.It simply exploits the constraint imposed by the no-arbitragecondition on instantaneous expected bond returns. In order toachieve our goal, we develop a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and applyit to data on Treasury bills and bonds for both the United Statesand Spain. We find that the single risk factor hypothesis cannotbe rejected for either dataset. 相似文献
9.
Rural taxation and government regulation in China 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
This paper places the problem of Chinese rural taxation in the context of government regulation and seeks to present an integrated theoretical framework of Chinese rural development in the past two decades. Our theoretical framework reconciles the seemingly contradictory facts that the average level of rural taxation relative to rural net income did not increase quickly from 1990, but rural taxation became a very serious problem in this period. Our findings suggest that this is in large part due to increases in rural income disparity from 1990 and uneven tax distribution among different income groups. We argue that differentiated enforcement of government regulations such as grain procurement and birth control play an important role in the rural taxation problem, and more generally, the problem of local government expansion and rising rural income disparity. The empirical findings support our hypotheses. 相似文献
10.
The nexus between government revenue and government expenditure has been an important topic in public economics. In this paper, we investigate evidence for cointegration and causality between government revenue and government expenditure for nine Asian countries. We use the recently developed bounds testing approach to cointegration and the conventional F-test to examine Granger causality. Our empirical results suggest that for three out of the nine countries government revenue and government expenditure are cointegrated. Our results on the direction of causation are mixed: (a) for Indonesia, Singapore, Sri Lanka in the short-run and for Nepal in both the short- and long-run we find support for the tax-and-spend hypothesis; (b) Indonesia and Sri Lanka are in conformity with the spend-and-tax hypothesis in the long-run; and (c) for other countries there is evidence of neutrality. 相似文献