Goodwill—an Example of Puzzle-Solving in Accounting—a Reply

Grinyer and Russell's (G&R, 1992) contention that Ma and Hopkins (1988) have imposed the mutually exclusive rules of the valuation-based paradigm on the matching-based paradigm that underlies accounting practice is overly defensive and misguided. Our 1988 paper was an attempt to throw light on why there was so little agreement on the rules governing the treatment of goodwill. G&R's comment does not change our view that the only answer to the 'puzzle' lies in the lack of a full understanding of the nature of goodwill.     

Important Intermediate Transactions and Multi-sectoral Modelling

For the maintenance and development of a disaggregated econometric model, the present paper deals with some aspects related to the identification of important intermediate transactions. First, some methodological aspects related to earlier works are discussed. By comparing the properties of different selection methods based on the recent West German input–output table, the calculations confirm the common finding that the necessary level of endogenization can be bounded meaningfully by an a priori investiga tion of the intersectoral transactions. This is also valid if the selection method considers restrictions that deal with the consistence of input–output tables and if some broader error criteria are applied. The main result of the empirical applications seems to be that some attention should be paid to temporal changes of important coefficients.     

中国古代耕牛保护制度及其对后世的影响

自西周以迄清朝,中国历代法律都严厉禁止任意宰杀牛,规定了相应的屠宰标准和审批手续。无论是牛主(牛的所有者)还是他人,私屠乱宰牛都是犯罪行为,要受到法律的制裁。这一制度的实施不是出于宗教的信仰或禁忌,也不是为了保护动物的福利(生存权),更不是为了保障食品安全,而是为了保证有足够的耕牛以满足农业生产的需要。这一制度对20世纪80年代前的中国近现代耕牛保护制度产生了深远的影响。     

美国银行关联交易监管演变考及借鉴

美国对银行业对外关联关系监管经历从“状态限制”到“行为限制”的发展过程,其理论基础是基于对银行独立市场判断能力的维护。我国应借鉴美国经验,加强对银行业关联交易的立法和外部监管,强化商业银行的内部控制;在监管中要兼顾效率和公平,加大对非公允关联交易的处罚力度,并赋予监管者一定的自由裁量权;不断修改、完善监管制度。     

On the source of contrarian and momentum strategies in the Italian equity market

This paper investigates the source of momentum profits, while inferring the validity of the assumptions underlying rational and behavioural theories. Using a unique sample of securities listed in the Italian Stock Exchange from 1950 to 1995, we observe that buying better performing stocks in the previous 3-12 months and selling worse performing stocks over the same period yields significant profits in the short term (less than 1 year). Results also hold when conditioned upon different risk specifications. On the other hand, the continuation effect seems to significantly revert over a longer period. More importantly, in contrast with Conrad and Kaul [Rev. Financ. Stud. 11 (1998) 489], bootstrap and Monte Carlo simulations show that momentum profits are more likely to be generated by stock returns time series properties rather than by their cross-sectional differences. While the overall findings cannot reject the market efficiency hypothesis, we argue that behavioural theory may be a possible “story” to interpret the continuation effect.     

Institutional plasticity in public-private interactions: Why Japan’s port reform failed

This study applies the concept of institutional plasticity to analyze institutional change, and investigates why actors are unable to change institutions even when change is apparently necessary. Employing historical institutionalism, the analysis focuses on public-private interactions in the recent port reform in Japan. The study’s findings reveal four limits to institutional plasticity due to the respective roles of key actors – the central government, the local port authority, and business entities – in the process of policy reform. The study suggests that while institutional plasticity may enable variation within an existing developmental trajectory or even creation of an entirely new path, insufficient institutional plasticity constrains the creation of new institutions and inhibits institutional change.     

Assessing efficiency and investment opportunities in commodities: A time series and portfolio simulations approach

This paper investigates the informational efficiency hypothesis in the short and long term for four major commodity markets (oil, gas, electricity, and coal) from January 1997 to January 2016. Unlike previous studies, we provide a more concise comparative analysis by focusing on different classes of commodities for a large sample, including 5 developed and 3 emerging regions and covering 46 countries. We apply different parametric and non-parametric econometric tests. Our study provides two interesting findings. First, we show that commodity markets are informationally inefficient in the short term. Our portfolio simulations highlight that commodities might provide “good” investment opportunities, but those opportunities vary according to commodity class and regions. Second, we show that most commodity markets become informationally efficient in the long term, thereby reducing investors' interest for the duration. Thus, commodity markets might be used to hedge investor’s portfolios, particularly for speculators and chartists in the short term, while these investments might not be appealing in these markets in the long term.     

RIDGE ESTIMATORS FOR PROBIT REGRESSION: WITH AN APPLICATION TO LABOUR MARKET DATA

In this paper we propose ridge regression estimators for probit models since the commonly applied maximum likelihood (ML) method is sensitive to multicollinearity. An extensive Monte Carlo study is conducted where the performance of the ML method and the probit ridge regression (PRR) is investigated when the data are collinear. In the simulation study we evaluate a number of methods of estimating the ridge parameter k that have recently been developed for use in linear regression analysis. The results from the simulation study show that there is at least one group of the estimators of k that regularly has a lower mean squared error than the ML method for all different situations that have been evaluated. Finally, we show the benefit of the new method using the classical Dehejia and Wahba dataset which is based on a labour market experiment.     

Progressive fragmentation of a traditional Mediterranean landscape by hazelnut plantations: The impact of CAP over time in the Langhe region (NW Italy)

Land use change is strongly modifying the traditional landscape of hilly productive Mediterranean sites. An example of these circumstances is the Langhe region (Piemonte, NW Italy), where woody plantations such as vineyards and orchards have been cultivated on hillslopes for centuries. In this paper we assess landscape changes occurred in the Diano study area (2651 ha) in the 1954–2000 period and we ascertain land use transition paths and rates of this rural ecosystem. Land use mapping obtained from object-oriented analysis of aerial photographs was used to quantify land use changes between 1954 and 2000. To examine the spatio-temporal patterns of land use change over time, a set of spatial statistics capturing different dimensions of landscape change was identified. An increase of landscape heterogeneity from 1954 to the present was observed due to the expansion of orchards and the fragmentation of field crops. A significant portion (55%) of current orchards surface is represented by former field crops, 24% by vineyards and 15% by forests. The strong expansion of hazelnut orchards concurred to the fragmentation of traditional rural landscape was dominated by vineyards, field crops and forests. Hazelnut orchards expansion was mainly located in places where grapes cultivation was less remunerative. A further expansion of hazelnut in the area should be planned, discussed and carefully monitored through change detection studies in order to avoid potential unsustainable use of the land.     

Debt sustainability in emerging market countries: Some policy guidelines from a fan-chart approach

This paper uses a probabilistic approach to simulate the medium-term public debt trajectories of several major emerging market countries. We extend the standard debt sustainability analysis framework so as to more faithfully reproduce these countries’ economic reality in two aspects. First, we allow them to differ in the cyclical stance of their fiscal policy and in their degree of fiscal responsiveness to debt. Second, we explicitly integrate the specific risk premium paid by each country when borrowing in foreign currency. It allows us to evaluate the impact of alternative policies that the government may consider to improve sustainability. The results lead to three policy recommendations: i) a country should consider decreasing its exposure to currency risk only in extreme cases (like Argentina); ii) on the contrary, greater fiscal responsiveness (i.e. stronger fiscal tightening whenever there is a debt increase) could enhance sustainability to a much greater extent; iii) countries with low responsiveness to debt or a poor fiscal consolidation track record should be cautious with countercyclical fiscal policies, as they may trigger an unsustainable debt trajectory in the trough of the economic cycle.