Predicting the equity market with option-implied variables

We comprehensively analyze the predictive power of several option-implied variables for monthly S&P 500 excess returns and realized variance. The correlation risk premium (CRP) and the variance risk premium (VRP) emerge as strong predictors of both excess returns and realized variance. This is true both in- and out-of-sample. Our results also reveal that statistical evidence of predictability does not necessarily lead to economic gains. However, a timing strategy based on the CRP leads to utility gains of more than 5.03% per annum. Forecast combinations provide stable forecasts for both excess returns and realized variance, and add economic value.     

Stability, Asymmetry and Seasonality of Fund Performance: An Analysis of Australian Multi‐sector Managed Funds

Using a sample of Australian Multi-sector trusts we examine selectivity and market timing performance and extend the analysis to include the relatively new measure of volatility timing. This is of particular relevance to our data set, as high levels of volatility persistence are prevalent in Australia. In addition we consider the stability, asymmetry and seasonality of the various performance and risk measures. A survivorship adjustment procedure is also employed in order to assess the impact of survivorship on selectivity, market timing and volatility timing performance.     

Does an Industry Effect Exist for Initial Public Offerings?

We examine the impact of initial public offerings (IPOs) on rival firms and find that the valuation effects are insignificant. This insignificant reaction can be explained by offsetting information and competitive effects. Significant positive information effects are associated with IPOs in regulated industries and the first IPO in an industry following a period of dormancy. Significant negative competitive effects are associated with larger IPOs in competitive industries, those in relatively risky industries, those in high‐performing industries, and those in the technology sector. IPO firms that use the proceeds for debt repayment appear to represent a more significant competitive threat to rival firms relative to IPO firms that use their proceeds for other purposes.     

Empirical Investigation on China＇s Private Enterprises Performance Change Before and After Listing

This paper evaluates the performance change of the private enterprises listed on China＇s two exchanges during 2 years before and after listing in the period of 1996-2001. It is concluded that earning ability, real sales and financing are significantly improved, while only profitability decline a little bit after the private firms listed. In addition, we find that IPO private firms have appreciably better performance than that of BS ones as well as the financing condition becomes finer, which is relative to both the attributes of the private enterprises and Chinese regulatory rules. Therefore, we figured out that the outcome of private firms listing is positive, and China＇s economic reform will be a step-by-step process.     

The Recognition and Timing of Deferred Tax Liabilities

Abstract:   This paper examines the characteristics of firms that account for deferred tax liabilities related to government investment grants under an extended adoption timing period. Not only the recognition but also the timing decision is associated with changes in future performance and changes in the debt structure. Recognisers outperform non‐recognisers in the future, while early recognition is related to post recognition performance but only for those firms that currently perform well. Changes in the balance sheet structure are also related to both decisions. Firms with recent increases in the debt level tend to postpone recognition, while currently well‐performing firms that increase their future debt level are less likely to recognise deferred taxes.     

风险投资项目退出的时机与方式选择研究

文章对影响风险投资项目退出时机选择的微观因素和风险投资项目退出方式及其必要条件进行了深入分析,文章认为,风险投资项目退出的时机与方式选择具有动态性和一体性特点,遵循风险资本增值最大化的一般性原则,选择适宜的退出时机与方式对风险投资项目实现投资收益或锁定投资损失有着重要的意义。     

中国企业海外上市问题及其对策研究

随着全球化发展步伐的加快,我国也更加积极地参与全球经济体系,越来越多的中国公司开始进入海外证券市场筹集资金。中国企业海外上市在取得成绩的同时,也存在很多的问题。本文分析了中国企业海外上市存在的问题以及认识上的误区,并针对这些问题提出了相应的对策和建议。     

我国风险投资探讨——基于德国的经验借鉴

文章由德国风险投资业发展过程与成败经验作为借鉴,就我国风险投资业进行了初步的探讨,提出适合我国发展风险投资业的政策和建议,对我国风险投资业的健康发展有其重要的现实指导意义。     

创业投资机构对其支持企业IPO抑价度的影响

本文介绍了国外关于创业投资机构如何影响企业IPO抑价度的主要理论,在此基础上以我国的中小企业板上市公司为研究对象,通过比较分析发现与非创投支持企业相比创投支持企业有着更高的抑价度,进一步地研究表明该现象可用Am it et.al.[1]提出的逆向选择理论来解释。     

基于模糊优化模型下的IPO投资选择的研究与应用

针对影响新股投资决策的因素的不确定性,尝试把模糊优化模型应用到新股投资决策中,对新股的价值做了更加科学、合理的评价,简化了投资决策过程,得出更加有效的结论,以便于降低投资者的投资风险。给出了实例分析,得到了简便易懂的结果,具有较强的可靠性和实用性,将为投资者进行投资决策提供理论和实践指导。