Why is credit-to-GDP a good measure for setting countercyclical capital buffers?

We examine banks’ loan losses in Europe in 1982–2012 using a nonlinear three-factor model that takes into account output growth, real interest rate, and the ratio of private credit to GDP relative to its trend (i.e., “excessive indebtedness”). We find that a drop in output has an intensified impact on loan losses if the private sector is excessively indebted. Because increased bank credit risk should be matched with higher bank capital, the result motivates the Basel III's countercyclical capital buffers as a function of private indebtedness relative to its trend. The result also helps to explain differences in the amount of loan losses in different recessions across time and across countries. The model also indicates that low interest rates during the recent recession have clearly mitigated loan losses.     

B2B Channel Partner Programs: Disentangling Indebtedness from Gratitude

Many suppliers invest heavily in channel partner programs that incentivize selling and learning. The authors conduct a multi-wave field study to investigate the roles of indebtedness and gratitude in transforming these investments into returns. The results show that indebtedness has negative effects on commitment to the supplier, as well as the reseller's sales effort. Gratitude however attenuates the effects of indebtedness on sales effort and commitment, and thus offers a buffer against indebtedness’ negative effects. Indebtedness and gratitude thus play key roles in channel partner programs. In addition, the results highlight the importance of perceived motives as they differentially predict these two states. Benevolent motives are found to increase gratitude, though ulterior motives do not detract from it. Ulterior motives do however increase indebtedness. Finally, the results also reveal how entitlement negatively impacts channel partner programs: It decreases the positive effect of perceived program value on partner gratitude while increasing the effect of ulterior motives on indebtedness. This study thus assesses the simultaneous yet contrasting role of gratitude and indebtedness, as well as the complexity associated with realizing the full benefits of channel partner programs. The findings have implications for suppliers, marketers, and further research.     

基于负债感的激励创新——Y集团的奖励前置制度探索

转型经济背景下,传统基于业绩的付酬模式已难以达到激励效果,员工激励成为我国企业面临的重要问题.从中国传统文化中的情感回报观出发,以Y集团奖励前置制度为主要个案,在研究方法上采用田野调查和实地访谈方式,对奖励前置制度的内容和实施效果展开分析.同时,运用Greenberg的负债感理论,从负债感的角度深入分析员工回报行为产生的动机.通过研究发现,奖励前置模式产生激励效果的原因在于激发起员工心理上的负债感,通过负债感引发员工的回报行为,形成独特的基于负债感的员工激励模式,体现了“先予后取”的管理理念.     

Slow recoveries: Any role for corporate leverage?

This paper examines whether financial conditions of the non-financial corporate sector can explain why the recovery from recessions in the United States is slower since the mid-1980s. Leverage by the corporate sector has increased significantly since the financial deregulation of the mid-1980s. Empirical evidence shows that slow recoveries are associated with a significant drop in the growth rates of investment and bank loans, and with a surge in the growth rates of corporate bonds. In an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a financial accelerator, counterfactual experiments based on estimates of two samples – 1965–1983 and 1984–2007 – show that the non-financial corporate indebtedness affects only marginally the speed of the recovery in the two samples.     

The international hotel industry in Spain: Its hierarchical structure

This paper empirically analyzes the indebtedness of the main companies in the Spanish hotel industry. In particular, it introduces a method to analyze the structures and dynamics of the largest companies in this sector. The method combines the Pearson correlation coefficient with the nearest neighbour single linkage clustering algorithm (Mantegna, R. N. (1999). Hierarchical structure in financial markets. The European Physical Journal B, 11, 193–197). The Pearson correlation coefficient determines a metric distance between two different multidimensional time series that is then used to construct a Minimal Spanning Tree. From this tree, an ultra metric distance that is used to derive the Hierarchical Tree can be computed. From the analysis of the time series data of companies included in the SABI, or the Iberian Balance Sheet Analysis System 2005, it is possible to derive a hierarchical organization of the Spanish hotel firms. In particular, different dynamic clusters of companies, which correspond to their common production and indebtedness strategies, can be detected.     

中国家庭偿债能力:衡量与影响因素

居民部门债务的快速增长和过度累积可能导致经济体系产生潜在的金融风险。本文以2011-2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据为研究样本,选取了综合衡量家庭偿债能力的指标,并根据宏观层面的不良贷款率对该指标进行校准。进一步地,本文基于衡量结果分析了我国家庭偿债能力的影响因素。研究发现:第一,2011-2017年期间我国金融脆弱性家庭占比呈逐年上升趋势,且现阶段我国金融脆弱性家庭变动状况存在明显的人群异质性和地区异质性。应警惕居民部门杠杆率过快上升的透支效应和潜在风险,关注低收入家庭的偿债风险。第二,购房预期收益上升使家庭产生加杠杆行为,导致家庭过度负债从而使家庭偿债能力进一步恶化。本研究对我国居民部门的金融风险监测、评估和预警有一定启示。