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1.
本文以2003—2019年间开放式主动管理型的股票型和偏股型基金为样本,以持仓占比为权重估算基金投组中A股的总市场风险暴露,检验结果表明,该序列上升反映了基金面临的隐性杠杆约束收紧,刻画了市场的弱流动性。内在逻辑在于,流动性收紧时,投资者难以通过融资直接增加杠杆,更倾向于重仓持有高市场风险头寸的股票而间接实现杠杆。本文发现隐性杠杆约束所刻画的风险在股票或基金收益截面上的无条件定价基本失效,而条件定价则依赖于低市场情绪与弱流动性。分解基金持股的敞口,进一步发现,因中小盘基金在流动性收紧时具有更强的流动性偏好,其持股的市场风险头寸能够更敏锐地捕捉到弱流动性风险。 相似文献
2.
Hanjo Odendaal Monique Reid Johann F. Kirsten 《The South African journal of economics. Suid-afrikaanse tydskrif vir ekonomie》2020,88(4):409-434
In this paper, we consider the feasibility of constructing online sentiment indices, using large amounts of media data, as an alternative to the conventional survey method used to create the consumer confidence index in South Africa. A clustering framework is adopted to provide an indication of possible candidate sentiment indices constructed from a combination of different text sources and dictionaries that best mimic the traditional survey-based consumer confidence index from the South African Bureau for Economic Research (BER). The results conclude that it is possible to create an index using sentiment analysis using online editorial data that does resemble the BER’s consumer confidence index. The different media-based sentiment indices (MSI) show a significant level of correlation and co-movement with the BER’s CCI. Impulse responses and cross-correlation functions indicate that the MSI could potentially lead the survey-based method up to two quarters. Furthermore, Granger-causality tests show that the media-based indices are good predictors of future consumer confidence index values. The results provide motivation for further study on the use of sentiment-based techniques and online media data sources to track consumer confidence within an emerging market such as South Africa. 相似文献
3.
We analyze the relationship of retail investor sentiment and the German stock market by introducing four distinct investor pessimism indices (IPIs) based on selected aggregate Google search queries. We assess the predictive power of weekly changes in sentiment captured by the IPIs for contemporaneous and future DAX returns, volatility and trading volume. The indices are found to have individually varying, but overall remarkably high explanatory power. An increase in retail investor pessimism is accompanied by decreasing contemporaneous market returns and an increase in volatility and trading volume. Future returns tend to increase while future volatility and trading volume decrease. The outcome is in line with the conjecture of correction effects. Overall, the results are well in line with modern investor sentiment theory. 相似文献
4.
《Journal of Accounting and Public Policy》2022,41(3):106943
We study the effects of terrorist attacks on firms’ long-term annual management earnings forecasts bias. We find that the managers of firms located closer to the epicenters of attacks are more likely to issue optimistic long-term annual earnings forecasts relative to the managers of a control group of unaffected firms. The exposure effect is stronger for more severe terrorist events, and firms with more uncertain fundamentals and less geographic diversification. In addition, we document that managers’ forecast optimism intensifies for firms with stronger negative stock market reaction to the terrorist event, for CEOs with higher ability and for companies that are more likely to issue equity or engage in acquisitions following the terrorist event. Overall, our results are consistent with the idea that long-term annual earnings forecasts are used by managers to counterbalance the short-term pessimistic response to terrorist attacks. 相似文献
5.
本文针对我国股改中的百慕大权证提出了新的“模拟树-市场情绪”定价模型。该模型的实证研究结果表明中国权证市场价格存在严重高估;加入市场情绪指标后,通过建立多元回归模型得到了对于实际价格的显著的拟合结果,有力地解释了超出权证理论价格的实际价格所包含的情绪因素。本文最后对权证价格高估的原因及权证未来的走势进行了分析。 相似文献
6.
This paper examines the impact of public news sentiment on the volatility states of firm-level returns on the Japanese Stock market. We firstly adopt a novel Markov Regime Switching Long Memory GARCH (MRS-LMGARCH), which is employed to estimate the latent volatility states of intraday stock return. By using the RavenPack Dow Jones News Analytics database, we fit discrete choice models to investigate the impact of news sentiment on changes of volatility states of the constituent stocks in the TOPIX Core 30 Index. Our findings suggest that news occurrence and sentiment, especially those of macro-economic news, are a key factor that significantly drives the volatility state of Japanese stock returns. This provides essential information for traders of the Japanese stock market to optimize their trading strategies and risk management plans to combat volatility. 相似文献
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美国信托法中的“谨慎投资音规则”是在历经法定投资表和谨慎人规则两个阶段的演进中吸收了现代投资组合理论而形成的。“谨慎投资者规则”作为受托人的一项法定投资原则,不仅比较契舍当今证券投资的实际需要,而且也很好地防范了基金管理人对投资权力的滥用,目前已成为越采越多国家规范基金管理人注意义务的主要依据。我们很有必要对之加以吸收和借鉴,以使我国基金管理人注意义务的内容更为精细化。 相似文献
9.
投资者参与和证券投资基金风格业绩的评估 总被引:10,自引:0,他引:10
基金风格的形成是投资者参与并选择的结果。基金风格的差异体现出不同基金的设立是为了吸引特定的投资者群体。因此,评价基金业绩就必须从基金风格的供给与投资者风险管理的需求两个方面结合来进行。本文提出投资者参与和选择行为分析的视角,以投资者的风险管理需求的异质性为基础,从投资者身处的位置和衡量标准的不同所产生的异质性从而要求具有的不同目标收益率出发,通过构造连接风格分析与下侧风险指标的风险规避系数来研究基金的风格和投资者的风险管理需求,提出了一个新的基金业绩评估框架。 相似文献
10.
[目的]为了有效应对禽流感冲击、维持肉鸡产业稳定健康发展。[方法]基于互联网大数据构建了禽流感舆情指数,选取2012年1月至2017年3月周度数据,通过MS-VAR模型分析了禽流感危机下肉鸡市场状态的转换特征以及不同市场状态下产业链价格传导关系。[结果]2012年以来可将肉鸡产业市场状态划分为危机状态和正常状态,肉鸡产业市场在两个市场状态下转换频繁;肉鸡产业危机市场状态和正常市场状态平均持续期分别为4.65周和9.05周;肉鸡市场在区制转移概率上存在明显的非对称特征;肉雏鸡、活鸡和白条鸡价格之间在危机状态下相关性小于正常市场状态下相关性;不同市场状态下肉鸡产业链价格传导存在差异;肉鸡产业市场在危机状态下不稳定程度明显增加。[结论]提出了加大对禽流感疫情的监测以及疫情处理能力,密切关注公众禽流感舆情动态变动情况,做好舆情引导,加强禽流感疫情科学知识的宣传,增强公众对禽流感的认知等对策建议。 相似文献