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1.
In this article, we account for the first time for long memory, regime switching and the conditional time-varying volatility of volatility (heteroscedasticity) to model and forecast market volatility using the heterogeneous autoregressive model of realized volatility (HAR-RV) and its extensions. We present several interesting and notable findings. First, existing models exhibit significant nonlinearity and clustering, which provide empirical evidence on the benefit of introducing regime switching and heteroscedasticity. Second, out-of-sample results indicate that combining regime switching and heteroscedasticity can substantially improve predictive power from a statistical viewpoint. More specifically, our proposed models generally exhibit higher forecasting accuracy. Third, these results are widely consistent across a variety of robustness tests such as different forecasting windows, forecasting models, realized measures, and stock markets. Consequently, this study sheds new light on forecasting future volatility. 相似文献
2.
于纪波 《山西经济管理干部学院学报》2002,10(2):48-49
半导体存储器的容量和速度决策着计算机系统运行速度。目前CPU芯片18个月一更新,为了赶上这个速度,半导体存储器的发展也日新月异。 相似文献
3.
This paper reports on a study to compare self-reports during an interview with staff who attended a University health centre in Turkey, with the records of visits to the same health centre over the previous 12 months. Design of the study reflects the effects of importance of the event, duration since the event, frequency of the occurrence of the event, measurement scale of the event, and bounded and unbounded recalling. In order to assess the extent of recall error, responses to retrospective questions on health centre visits are compared with administrative records. Statistical models are proposed for short and long term human memory recall error effects on responses. 相似文献
4.
文章介绍了对防火墙通用TCP/IP实现的修改,经修改过的TCP/IP实现将在代码量、协议的完备性、内存的开销、总体性能方面得到提高。 相似文献
5.
当前,长三角区域经济、社会快速健康发展,形势喜人。但长三角区域行政体制僵化,运作缓慢,效率低下,阻碍了区域经济社会的进一步发展。关于长三角区域的发展,学术界、政府部门和民间有不同的看法,笔者就长三角区域行政的发展思路作个分析与评价,以加深对这个问题的研究。 相似文献
6.
长三角居民赴韩旅游消费模式初探 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
在实证研究的基础上从出游认知、消费构成、消费评价和消费趋势进行分析,探讨了长三角地区居民赴韩旅游消费模式。研究表明,长三角地区居民赴韩旅游出游认知和消费构成亦处于初级阶段,对消费评价和消费倾向大体上持肯定态度和乐观态度。 相似文献
7.
Luis A. Gil-Alana 《Empirical Economics》2003,28(1):101-113
Tests of unit roots and other nonstationary hypotheses that were proposed by Robinson (1994) are applied in this article
to the Nelson and Plosser's (1982) series. The tests can be expressed in a way allowing for structural breaks under both the
null and the alternative hypotheses. When applying the tests to the same dataset as in Perron (1989), we observe that our
results might be consistent with those in Perron (1989) when testing the nulls of trend-stationarity or a unit-root. However,
we also observe that fractionally integrated hypotheses may be plausible alternatives in the context of structural breaks
at a known period of time.
Final version received: August 2000/Final version accepted: August 2001
RID="*"
ID="*" The author gratefully acknowledges the financial support from the European TMR grant No. ERBFMRX-CT-98-0213. Comments
of two anonymous referees are also acknowledged. 相似文献
8.
Long memory in volatilities of German stock returns 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
We show that there is strong evidence of long-range dependence in the volatilities of several German stock returns. This will be done by applying a method using the difference of the classical log-periodogram regression estimator for the memory parameter and of the tapered periodogram based estimator. Both estimators give similar values for the memory parameter for each series and this indicates long memory. To support our findings we apply also a methodology using the sample variance and a wavelet based estimator to the data. Also these two methods show clear evidence of long-range dependence in the volatilities of German stock returns.First version received: December 2001/Final version received: March 2003The computational assistance of Eleni Mitropoulou and Björn Stollenwerck as well as the helpful comments of two unknown referees are gratefully acknowledged. Research supported by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft under SFB 475. Stock returns were obtained from Deutsche Finanzdatenbank (DFDB), Karlsruhe. 相似文献
9.
On a clear day you might see an environmental Kuznets curve 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We shed some new light on the Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) and show how it can be viewed as a particular form of equilibrium
relationship, where technology and preference parameters determine the shape of the curve. In contrast to most of the literature
on the EKC, we estimate a theoretically consistent model on long-run data (Swedish sulfur emission, covering the period 1900–2002).
Furthermore, we test and date structural change. The model suggests four regimes, 1900–1918, 1919–1933, 1934–1967 and 1968–2002,
generating four rather different patterns for pollution over time. The policy-conclusions are consonant with Pearce’s general
view about the EKC: there is no theoretical presumption that it has an inverted U shape, nor should any country try to “grow
out of the environmental problems” without analyzing the benefits and costs of so doing. 相似文献
10.
以文化遗产景观“记忆”为线索,探讨文化遗产景
观保护的设计应用与方法。提出阐述了文化景观“记忆三元
素”及其在文化遗产景观感受中的关键作用:1)人类活动的
文化历史记忆;2)自然生态的环境变迁记忆;3)景观营造的
文化景观实体空间风貌记忆。基于现代景观的开放性和参与
性,以2个文化景观遗产设计实践为案例,从人的景观感受
出发,分析探讨了文化遗产景观感受与记忆的因果关系,阐
述了“记忆三元素”作为人、场所和城市之间互动的一种联
系,而成为三者交流的共同“语言”,及其三元耦合、主客
互动关系。基本结论:“记忆”是一种物质文化资源和社会
文化实体,在一定程度上可以展现历史、现实和未来脉络;
“记忆”强化了人与场所之间的互动、场所与城市之间的联
系以及人类文明历史的延续;基于记忆的城市文化遗产景观
设计行之有效 相似文献