Safe havens in the face of Presidential election uncertainty: A comparison between Bitcoin,oil and precious metals

Even though the empirical literature on safe haven properties of different assets with respect to financial risks is increasing, their abilities to safeguard against political risks has not been the subject of large empirical investigations. This paper uses an Empirical Mode Decomposition-based approach to look into the time-varying role of different assets (in particular, oil, precious metals and Bitcoin) as a safe haven against U.S. stocks in times of heightened uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Our results suggest that oil can act as an effective safe haven against political risk exposure; but such property varies over time. The abilities of gold and silver to provide positive returns during downturns have been also documented in the medium-and the long-term. Bitcoin also serves as a safe haven against U.S. stock losses but in the short-term. These findings provide useful and relevant information to investors to help ensure better asset allocation in an uncertain environment.     

Disorganised host community touristic-event spaces: revealing Rio’s fault lines at the 2016 Olympic Games

ABSTRACT

We investigate the live staging spatial-organisational requirements of the Rio 2016 Olympic Games, exploring the extent to which the project sequestrated, territorialised and commodified public space. Relatedly, we examine the role of new legal, regulatory and securitised event conditions in affording an effective and efficient ‘Olympic takeover’. We do this by drawing on i) official Rio 2016 planning documents, ii) observations of the live Olympic-city spatial effects, and iii) interviews with key informants. Findings reveal that Rio’s specially created Olympic event zones sought to transform visitor flows and circulations across the city, appropriating and regulating public space in-line with a desired tourist aesthetic. Rio’s public civic space became reimagined and controlled for commercial exploitation by Olympic sponsors, supporters and suppliers– facilitated by the creation of areas of exclusivity. And yet, we also reveal how the Rio Olympic city simultaneously emerged disorganised, open and fluid in places– a (temporary) break in the (neoliberal) economic logic we have come to expect. We argue that localised conditions affecting Rio afforded closer connectivity between event visitor economies and host communities. While these gains remain marginal and largely symbolic, they demonstrate that with effective planning, the Olympic host city need not only serve corporate interests.     

The financial costs of political uncertainty: Evidence from the 2016 US presidential elections

The victory of Mr. Donald Trump came as a surprise to a wide range of market participants. Some of the elements of his economic plan were envisaged to affect all US sectors. This paper assesses the reactions of disaggregated US stock market to the 2016 US presidential election results, and possible deregulation that is to follow after his inauguration. We find that the different US sectors were significantly and varyingly influenced by the election result, and were greatly reactive during the days after the inauguration. This underscores that uncertainty tends to persist and even rises since the President-elect took office.     

Do investors value companies' mandatory nonfinancial risk disclosure? An empirical analysis of the Italian context after the EU Directive

In October 2014, the European Union adopted Directive 2014/95/EU (hereafter, EU Directive), mandating companies of a certain size to draft and publish corporate nonfinancial information (NFI) regarding society and the environment. In this study, we examine the mandatory disclosure of nonfinancial (NF) risks by listed Italian companies, as required by the EU Directive, focusing on both the state‐of‐the‐art of such disclosure and its usefulness for investors. For this purpose, the study adopts a two‐staged research approach; in the first stage, we employed a manual meaning‐oriented content analysis to investigate the NF declarations (NFDs) of the listed Italian companies that were obliged to disclose NFI, returning a quality NF risks disclosure index. In the second stage, we used the value relevance methodology to investigate whether the disclosed NF risk information affects the levels of equity prices, through a modified Ohlson model. Our research is one of the first to investigate the value relevance of mandatory disclosures of NF risks following the implementation of the EU Directive, in the Italian context. The research was carried out in 2017, the first year of the directive's application for listed Italian companies. The main findings support a positive association between NF risk information disclosure levels and companies' market value. Moreover, they provide evidence of a significant mediating effect of NF risk on the relationship between financial risks and market value.     

The determinants of the vote for Trump: an analysis of Texas 2016 primary results

This article analyses the 2016 primary vote for Donald Trump in Texas. Much of Trump’s campaign rhetoric has been anti-immigrant. A major Trump campaign theme was his proposal to build a wall along the Mexico-U.S. border and make Mexico pay for it (Trump 2016). The econometric model estimated below uses county-level data for Texas. The dependent variable is the percent of the 2016 republican primary vote for Mr Trump. The model examines the electoral effects of Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric in a heavily Hispanic border state.