Innovation and growth: supply and demand factors in the recent US expansion

It is widely held that the social-economic context of the US,characterised by labour market flexibility and deregulationof product and capital markets, lies at the basis of the innovativecapacity displayed by the country's productive system in the1990s, thus accounting for the growth differential with Europe.Starting from a different interpretative model of innovationand growth, the paper focuses on both supply (institutionaland technological) and demand factors. It is argued that, whentheir interaction is taken into account, there is no strongevidence that more deregulated labour and product markets areamong the factors allowing for US growth. In accordance withthe view that there is no single road to innovation and growth,this leaves room for the exploration and implementation of policiesthat might reconcile innovation and growth with safeguards suchas those provided by Europe's social institutions.     

生产性过剩条件下中国宏观经济政策取向探讨

目前我国之所以出现生产性过剩，商品过剩为其直接原因，生产和消费关系失调为其根本原因。为此，国家宏观经济政策应由主要调控投资转向主要调控消费，以消费带动投资。     

Speculative bubbles or market fundamentals? An investigation of US regional housing markets

This paper investigates the existence of speculative bubbles in the US national and 21 regional housing markets over three decades (1978–2015). A new method for real-time monitoring exuberance in housing markets is proposed. By taking changes in the macroeconomic conditions (such as interest rate, per-capita income, employment, and population growth) into consideration, the new method provides better control for housing market fundamentals and thereby it is expected to significantly reduce the chance of false positive identification. Compared with the method of Phillips et al. (2015a, 2015b), the new approach finds a dramatic reduction in the number of speculative housing markets and shorter bubble episodes in the US. It locates only one bubble episode in the early-to-mid 2000s over the whole sample period in the national housing market. At the regional level, it identifies two periods of speculation: late 1980s and early-to-mid 2000s. The early-to-mid 2000s bubble episode lasts longer and involves 16 metropolitan statistical areas.     

The transition crisis in Bulgaria

In 1996-97, while making its way through a difficult processof economic and political transformations, Bulgaria was hitby a severe economic crisis. This paper seeks to reveal andanalyse the underlying factors and causes of this crisis. Itfocuses on empirical issues but also highlights some basic causalitiesand interrelations between economic variables during the crisisas well as the role of economic policy. The economic turmoilin Bulgaria is addressed from three different perspectives:(1) the historic roots of the crisis; (2) the actual evolutionof the fiscal, banking and currency crises, and (3) the politicaleconomy of the transition in Bulgaria.     

宏观经济波动对工业所有制结构的影响——\"国进民退\"的回顾与前瞻

本文利用1998—2008年的样本数据,通过实证方法研究宏观经济波动对工业所有制结构的影响,结果表明经济增长速度、货币存量、出口增长率以及通货膨胀与国有工业比重下降速度均呈负相关关系,这说明国进民退是宏观经济景气度影响的结果。因此,我们认为宏观调控政策应从优化国有与非国有企业的融资环境、对微观结构影响的程度等方面去改善国有与非国有工业企业的经营环境。     

Fundamentals, the exchange rate and prospects for the current and future EU enlargements: evidence from Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey

We analyze the link between macroeconomic fundamentals and exchange rate dynamics in two new and two potential EU member states: Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, and Turkey. Given the different institutional settings of the exchange rate market in the countries of interest, we follow two different modelling strategies. For Romania and Turkey, we evaluate possible exchange rate misalignments based on a monetary model of exchange rate determination. In the case of Bulgaria and Croatia, with currency board and narrow-band peg arrangements against the euro, we discuss possible exit strategies and quantitatively assess the effects of the peg arrangements by means of simulation.

Bringing Balance to the Force? A Comparative Analysis of Institutionalisation Processes in the G20’s Mutual Assessment Process and the EU’s Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure

Events from 2008 onwards have bought the old consensus on the sound money and finance paradigm (the ‘Great Moderation’) into bold relief. One manifestation of this crisis of belief is the increased focus on global imbalances, institutionally reflected in the creation of the Mutual Assessment Process (MAP) at the G20 level and subsequently the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure (MIP) at the European Union (EU) level. Comparing both newcomers to international macroeconomic policy coordination, this article analyses four features that shape (and we show, institutionalise) the process of paradigm contestation: presence, position, promotion and plausibility. We argue that although initially the G20’s MAP scored higher in terms of presence, position and promotion, it is the EU’s MIP, which heralds a more substantial shift in macroeconomic management. Collectively, both indicate the increased prominence of global imbalances as the subject of inter- or supranational management, and a broadening of the notion of necessary or legitimate economic governance.     

A theory of racial diversity, segregation, and productivity

Empirical evidence illustrates that diversity generates both economic costs and benefits. This paper develops a theoretical model that accounts for the positive and deleterious effects of heterogeneity. First, an expanded Solow Growth Model demonstrates that the direct effects of diversity can be positive or negative, and depend upon the size of fixed parameter values. Second, diversity also influences individuals' location decisions. Segregation (variation of diversity across regions) always reduces national output per worker, so if diversity induces integration, it indirectly augments productivity as well. Finally, political policies aimed at reducing interaction costs across groups may actually reduce aggregate output per worker by encouraging segregation.     

宏观经济波动的微观基础:基于股权配给角度的分析

当宏观经济进入衰退阶段,由于上市公司的股权配给,上市公司投资的边际破产成本上升,导致上市公司的投资下降,在投资乘数原理和加速数原理的相互作用下,会使宏观经济衰退更加严重,宏观经济陷入经济衰退与股权配给相互作用的恶性循环中,宏观经济衰退的程度会进一步加大。当宏观经济进入繁荣阶段,呈现与上述相反的过程,会导致宏观经济持续过度繁荣。因此,股权配给是宏观经济波动的加速器。我国的现实是,从微观角度分析,上市公司具有强烈的股权融资偏好;从宏观上看,政府进行股权配给。两者的共同作用,使股权配给具有平抑宏观经济波动的功能。