终极控制人性质、内部控制缺陷与企业风险

以2008~2014年上市公司为研究对象,考察转型经济环境下终极控制人性质如何影响内部控制缺陷及其修复与企业风险之间的关系。研究发现,内部控制缺陷越大,企业风险越高,但缺陷修复能显著降低企业风险;进一步研究发现,国有企业比民营企业的风险程度显著更小,但相对央企而言,地方国有企业更容易出现风险,尤其在治理环境差的地区,地方国企的风险程度显著更高。研究表明,不同的终极控制人性质导致了企业内部控制缺陷对企业风险的不同影响,这既为深化国有企业改革提供经验证据,也进一步昭示强化企业内部控制风险免疫功能的重要性与紧迫性。     

Millennium Development Goal shortfalls in Zimbabwe: Analysing the impact of access to water and sanitation on early childhood morbidity

ABSTRACT

An Africana feminist framework is presented that considers the ways in which inequality resulting from a historical legacy of political conflict and other dimensions intersect to impact upon the accomplishment of Millennium Development Goals with regards to environmental sustainability and child malnutrition in Zimbabwe. Demographic and Health Surveys are analysed from 1988 to 2011 to examine whether differential access to water and sanitation is predicted by ethnic differences in Zimbabwe, and is predictive of chronic malnutrition. Safe water and sanitation are in short supply, and logistic regression analyses provide evidence that residents in Shona and Ndebele-dominated provinces generally have better access to these resources. Uneven distribution of these development resources has a deleterious impact on early childhood nutrition. This work elicits results that give rise to child health-related policy recommendations that may inform post-2015 discussions of Sustainable Development Goals, namely that within-country ethnic differences must be taken into account.     

How are we doing on poverty and hunger reduction? A new measure of country performance

The paper presents a new composite indicator – the poverty and hunger index (PHI) – to measure countries’ performance toward achieving millennium development goal No.1 (MDG1) on halving poverty and hunger by 2015. Building on the statistical structure of the human development index, the PHI combines all five official MDG1 indicators, thereby generating insights on a country’s net progress towards its own goal, as opposed to progress measured by a single yardstick. Nonparametric analysis on the PHI components provides further evidence on the nature of the relationship between poverty and hunger measures, while cross-country results show significant variance in progress between and within regions. An extension of the PHI allows for consideration of the rate of progress made by each country in its own terms; that is, based on where it needs to be to attain all 5 MDG1 targets by 2015. Countries needing priority attention are identified, as well as areas for future research and recommendations for post-2015 initiatives.     

Satisfying the basics: reflections from a consumer perspective of attractions management at the Millennium Dome,London

The Millennium Dome, London, was supposed to be the centrepiece of UK celebrations marking the start of the twenty‐first century. Unwittingly, it also emerged as the centrepiece of much media negativity and scrutiny — for the full length of its (projected) 1 year of opening. Four years after the doors closed, and with the perspective of time, this study reflects on the Millennium Dome as a case study of visitor attractions management — with data drawn from the consumer perspective at the time of opening. The focus of the primary research is on the satisfaction of visitors to the Millennium Dome. This was carried out when the attraction was weathering the media storm following its opening. Both quantitative and qualitative data was gathered from 530 exit questionnaires and 350 qualitative interviews. The quantitative data revealed visitor assessments of the experience of the Millennium Dome as a whole, and their assessments of its constituent parts (zones). The findings of the qualitative interviews led to the construction of a typology of meanings for visitors to the Millennium Dome. Even though time has elapsed since closure, both the quantitative and the qualitative findings still have a wider application in the interpretation of the visitor experience in attractions. Recommendations at the time indicated a need for management to focus on ‘the basics’ of the visitor experience with the addendum that a failure to do so could detract from ‘the most amazing day out ever’ or, indeed, ‘a very special day’ — and to ensure a closer match between marketing expectations and the reality of the experience. Reflection has not altered such often neglected but fundamental tenets. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2015年后国际发展议程谈判评析

发展问题是联合国大会的核心议题之一。随着落实联合国千年发展目标最后期限的临近,如何制定2015年后国际发展议程越来越受到世界各方的关注。从目前来看,千年发展目标的实施进展喜中有忧,这对2015年后国际发展议程谈判中各方产生很大的影响。虽然2015年后国际发展议程谈判尚处于预备性谈判阶段,但发达国家、发展中国家和市民社会等主要参与方的立场已逐渐成型,未来谈判的一些基本态势已经显现。     

Producing state of the future indexes using the international futures model

This paper reports on the introduction of the State of the Future Index (SOFI) into the University of Denver's International Futures (IFs) modeling system, a synthesis that will permit the calculation and comparison of the SOFI for all nations covered in the model. The SOFI is an index designed to show whether the future outlook is improving or not; it is also useful in policy analysis since it can be used to demonstrate whether contemplated policies appear to change the future, overall, for the better. It is one of the few indexes that are forecasted.The capability to calculate SOFI has been added to the IFs model; this addition now permits the model to calculate SOFI for all of the countries in the model. With this capability national SOFIs can be computed by anyone and for any country, set of countries, region, or globally. The model, its database, and now the SOFI calculation are available online at no cost to the users. This opens the opportunity to produce an annual or biennial publication that tracks and ranks the State of the Future Index for countries, regions, and the world as a whole.     

Dynamic analysis of interventions designed to achieve millennium development goals (MDG): The case of Ghana

An increasing number of countries are orientating their development strategies based on the millennium development goals (MDG), a broad set of directives agreed to by the United Nations (UN) in the year 2000. Developing coherent plans to achieve MDG has been complicated by their multidisciplinary nature, and by the complexity of the system being managed. The “system” here is the socio-economic construct within which populations live and operate. In an effort to support this planning process, various approaches have been developed to help realize MDG within specified budgets. The work described here complements the most commonly used approaches by analyzing the impact of alternative interventions in an integrated socio-economic-environmental framework. In doing so, we utilize system dynamics, which is well-suited to support the analysis of dynamic, complex issues such as those that characterize MDG planning. Such an approach allows us to estimate impacts of MDG-related interventions on the economic and demographic development of countries under study, as well as the possible synergies between and amongst selected interventions, e.g., those involving education and health. Results indicate that failure to account for such factors can lead to sub-optimal strategies. Our objective is thus to provide policy-makers with a more comprehensive view of the outcomes generated by alternative MDG interventions, with emphasis on the ability to finance given strategies.