MODELING SOVEREIGN RISKS: FROM A HYBRID MODEL TO THE GENERALIZED DENSITY APPROACH

Motivated by the European sovereign debt crisis, we propose a hybrid sovereign default model that combines an accessible part taking into account the evolution of the sovereign solvency and the impact of critical political events, and a totally inaccessible part for the idiosyncratic credit risk. We obtain closed‐form formulas for the probability that the default occurs at critical political dates in a Markovian setting. Moreover, we introduce a generalized density framework for the hybrid default time and deduce the compensator process of default. Finally, we apply the hybrid model and the generalized density to the valuation of sovereign bonds and explain the significant jumps in long‐term government bond yields during the sovereign crisis.     

From the margins: globalization with(out) home economics

Pies and peas, noughts and crosses, fish and chips, chicken and egg, teaching and learning, home economics and . . . globalization? In psychotherapy, this simple technique of providing a word and another automatically coming to mind is called free association and some of the internationally accepted pairings are noted above. Do we want ‘home economics’ and ‘globalization’ to have an automatic association? In this paper, I argue that home economics must make a shift from the margins of patriarchy by re‐thinking the ways in which the field is legitimized and positioned if it is to be a key player in taking on the challenges and dilemmas raised by globalization.     

科技英语中数量增减的译法

本文系统地归纳了在科技文献中常见的涉及到倍数增减的结构及其表达方式     

事项法会计必然取代价值法会计

通过分析事项法与现行价值法的本质差异,揭示了价值法会计的局限性以及在知识经济条件下面临的挑战。根据知识经济时代社会经济环境和使用者信息需求的变化,论证了事项法会计必将取代价值法会计,领导知识经济时代会计的改革方向。     

World Oil Depletion Models: Price effects compared with strategic or technological interventions

World oil depletion, including natural gas liquids, was modelled in the past by many authors. Recently, Guseo and Dalla Valle have introduced and Guidolin has applied a new approach following perturbed life-cycle diffusion models. Here we examine joint effects of economic and strategic or technological interventions using a Generalized Bass Model (GBM). Statistical analysis takes into account three different hierarchical levels: natural diffusion, long memory interventions and stochastic components. The main results confirm the statistical significance of historical 1970s shocks and highlight a strong long memory effect due to an increase in oil production after World War II. The estimated peak-date, 2007, and the 90% depletion time, 2019, are determined under an equilibrium intervention hypothesis.     

论邓小平新型党际关系思想的时代特征

邓小平新型党际关系思想是中国共产党在总结以往处理国家间政党关系的历史经验的基础上,抓住当 前时代发展的主题而提出的。坚持党际关系四原则,保障政治安全与推进经济发展并重,以搞好国内建设为基础履 行国际责任,是邓小平新型党际关系思想三个鲜明的时代特征。     

综放工作面动态分次加架技术实践

针对一些不规则布置的综放工作面,介绍了当工作面长度变长时,采取不同的布置及加架方式的优缺点。这对于一些储量较少,地质条件复杂的矿井具有很好的借鉴意义。     

《毛泽东思想和中国特色社会主义理论体系概论》教学研究

本文根据《中共中央、国务院关于进一步加强和改进大学生思想政治教育的意见》和《中共中央宣传部、教育部关于进一步加强和改进高等学校思想政治理论课的意见》为贯彻落实党的十七大精神,针对"毛泽东思想和中国特色社会主义理论体系概论("以下简称"概论)"课程建设与教学,科研与教学方法及实践教学进行全方位的教学方面的研究和论述,同时根据本课程的特点,结合高校思政教学要求,对"概论"课程的教学实施阐述教学体会。     

The impact of relative residence times on the distribution of heavy drinkers in highly distinct environments

Alcohol consumption is a function of social dynamics, environmental contexts, individuals' preferences and family history. Empirical surveys have focused primarily on identification of risk factors for high-level drinking but have done little to clarify the underlying mechanisms at work. Also, there have been few attempts to apply nonlinear dynamics to the study of these mechanisms and processes at the population level. A simple framework where drinking is modeled as a socially contagious process in low- and high-risk connected environments is introduced. Individuals are classified as light, moderate (assumed mobile), and heavy drinkers. Moderate drinkers provide the link between both environments, that is, they are assumed to be the only individuals drinking in both settings. The focus here is on the effect of moderate drinkers, measured by the proportion of their time spent in “low-” versus “high-” risk drinking environments, on the distribution of drinkers.A simple model within our contact framework predicts that if the relative residence times of moderate drinkers are distributed randomly between low- and high-risk environments then the proportion of heavy drinkers is likely to be higher than expected. However, the full story even in a highly simplified setting is not so simple because “strong” local social mixing tends to increase high-risk drinking on its own. High levels of social interaction between light and moderate drinkers in low-risk environments can diminish the importance of the distribution of relative drinking times on the prevalence of heavy drinking.     

大型物流仓储类建筑防火安全设计方法探析

随着中国物流产业的蓬勃发展,越来越多大型物流仓储中心出现,但是随之而来的一些消防问题也摆在眼前,如防火分区面积过大、疏散问题、消防设施布置等。运用了性能化防火设计评估的方法对类似建筑进行分析模拟,并提出相关优化方案是一个比较可行的解决办法,通过该方法能够提高建筑安全性,增加设施的可靠性。