论高校财务风险防范

本文从高校财务风险的内涵出发,阐述了当前形势下高校财务所面临的风险表征分析其成因,提出防范和化解风险的两种模式.     

发达国家应急管理特点研究

发达国家基本上都是依据法律建立立体化、网络化的综合减灾、应急管理体系,从上到下常设专职机构,由相关专业人员组成抢险救援队伍,军事化或准军事化管理,建立严格而高效的政府信息发布系统,明确政府相关职能和部门合作事项,有超前的灾害研究和事故预防机制,普遍重视灾害意识培养和全社会的应急培训,有充足的应急准备和可靠的信息网络保障.对我们国家应急管理体系建设很有借鉴和启示作用.     

Shift of the short-term temperature mortality relationship by a climate factor - some evidence necessary to take account of in estimating the health effect of global warming

Several studies have reported a 'V'-shaped relationship between short-term temperature and mortality rates, characterized by mortality rates that are higher when the temperature is extremely low or high than when the temperature is moderate. To quantify the effect of adaptation to a certain climate on this V-shaped short-term temperature-mortality relationship, we studied the prefecture-specific relationship between daily maximum temperature and mortality rates for 65+-years-old Japanese from 1972 to 1990. For both genders, the optimum daily maximum temperature (OT) category at which the mortality rate was minimum ranged from 23C-28 C to 33+C, and the OT level became lower when the climate became colder. The mean OT level was lower for women than for men by 1.7C. The mortality rate at the OT was almost constant across prefectures, regardless of the climate. From the results, we considered that the adaptation effect on the short-term temperature-mortality relationship is mainly described by the 'horizontal shift model': the V-shape moves horizontally according to the climate. This 'shift' should be taken into account in estimating the health effect of global warming, and the model would be useful for the estimation.     

Germany: ‘élite precaution’ alongside continued public opposition

Germany is the EU member state with the most difficult situation (besides Austria) for marketing genetically modified (GM) crops and food. At the same time, it shows the least administrative effort to respond to the reasons for this situation – public suspicion and protest. Regulators advocate specific precaution-related measures, including marketstage monitoring; these measures, however, do not relate to the primary demands of critics and opponents. The administration’s claim to prioritize scientific evidence over politics constructs the administration and the public as two separate worlds without real mediation. This conflicts with the ever-growing demands for public participation. Participation in a broader sense, however, is not dependent on formal opportunities. In this conflict, NGOs bring up issues of democracy, transparency and precaution through public mobilization. This strategy results in an anticipated consumer boycott and thereby a commercial blockage of GM products. These dynamics can be analysed as ‘reflexive modernization’, which implies greater public aversion to externally imposed risks. The politico-administrative system responds with a legalistic–scientistic approach in order to increase safety but without participatory measures to overcome predictive uncertainty and value conflicts. Environmental and consumer protest has led the technology providers to revise their political strategies in the biotechnology conflict. Thus, in Germany reflexive modernization takes place without reflexive politics.     

Communication about a communication technology

As genetically modified (GM) products approach the market stage, the UK government and agro-food industry have faced a suspicious or hostile public. Since 1998 many retail chains have undertaken to exclude any GM-derived ingredients from their own-brand lines. This commercial blockage has intensified pressures for greater precaution, even for a moratorium on cultivating GM crops. Political protest has led to strategies for precautionary commercialization. Government and industry have cooperated to plan a ‘managed development’ of GM crops. Across the agricultural supply chain, industry has devised voluntary guidelines to ensure segregation of GM crops and to limit the spread of GM herbicide-tolerance. In particular UK regulators seek to test the risk that broad-spectrum herbicide sprays could damage wildlife habitats; they have broadened the advisory expertise accordingly. These measures open up the precautionary content to further debate, at both national and EU levels. Market-stage precautions establish a means to test claims that GM crops are environmentally-friendly products. By translating public concerns into broader risk-assessment criteria, the UK procedure involves critics in potentially influencing standards of scientific evidence and environmental harm. This social process has become a prerequisite for legitimizing commercial use.     

会计电算化系统存在的安全风险与防范措施

会计电算化系统存在的安全风险包括无纸化过程中存在的风险，网络环境下存在的风险以及会计信息系统应用软件自身的问题。针对这些风险应通过建立健全严密科学的会计电算化系统，建立防病毒安全措施，加强人才培养等措施来防范。     

开放条件下金融风险预警指标体系研究

在参阅国内外相关文献的基础上,根据对金融风险的分类,合理构建了金融风险预警指标体系,利用主成分和因子分析法对各指进行赋权,对年各指标数据加权求和,测算出各样本年份金融风险水平,并对其原因进行了合理剖析。研究结果表明:在2003-2008年期间,由于资本市场价格泡沫和国际金融危机的冲击使我国2007年金融风险指数达到最高;2008年资本市场价格得以理性回归,商业银行资本充足率的达标率进一步提高,金融危机的负面影响逐渐衰退,金融风险指数降到最低。     

论社会审计的风险及防范

审计是一种综合性经济监督活动。社会经济活动的复杂性和不确定性使社会审计面临的风险越来越大。本文从审计风险的涵义大手,介绍了审计风险的形式和审计风险的基本特征;从主观和客观两个方面分析了影响审计风险的因素,并提出了防范审计风险的具体措施。对规避和降低社会审计风险,提高社会审计工作质量具有重要意义。     

GUEST EDITORIAL: Cutting corners in chemical risk limitation

The first genetically modified crops and foods to be approved for commercial use in the European Union have prompted intense controversy. Food retailers and processors have been forced to take up the concerns voiced by their customers. New networks of groups have formed to oppose the technology. In response to these pressures, regulators who approved the products have had to reconsider questions they had previously dismissed or officially resolved. Governments have devised more precautionary measures of various kinds. For example, they have increased the burden of evidence for demonstrating safety, have broadened the practical definition of the ‘adverse effects’ which must be prevented, and have devised marketstage precautions for such effects. These extra measures manage the risk debate as well as any risks. In such ways, the technocratic model of European harmonization is being challenged and superseded. This may allow differences in national practices to be viewed as valuable expert resources for a different harmonization model, rather than as deviations from a universal rational norm. Regulatory conflicts offer precautionary opportunities, which could lead to more flexible and democratic procedures. Theoretical perspectives – on risk, uncertainty, precaution, European integration, expertise and the internal market – help illuminate these possibilities.     

Ireland: contested precaution and challenged institutions

Irish policy on GMOs has generally cited precaution as its basis, although the official responses to marketing applications demonstrate a generally favourable attitude towards the technology. The official policy assumes that the current safety regulation can ensure that products reaching the market are safe, and that consumers can make their own ethical and political choices regarding GMOs, facilitated by full labelling of such products and ingredients. This view has been made more explicit with recent official statements. A national consultation process resulted in a report which strongly favours GM technology, but the whole process has been questioned by critics of GM crops. Many disagreements remain, particularly around the range of issues open to discussion. Many actors and organisations opposed to GMOs argue that the debate has been too narrowly focused on scientific aspects of health and environmental protection; they attempt to widen the scope to include other aspects, such as political and ethical concerns. This effort challenges the mediating institutions and their capacity to regulate an issue which involves uncertainty.