The Marshallian macroeconomic model: A progress report

In this progress report, we first indicate the origins and early development of the Marshallian macroeconomic model (MMM) and briefly review some of our past empirical forecasting experiments with the model. Then we present recently developed one-sector, two-sector and n-sector models of an economy that can be employed to explain past experience, predict future outcomes and analyze policy problems. The results of simulation experiments with various versions of the model are provided to illustrate some of its dynamic properties that include “chaotic” features. Last, we present comments on planned future work with the model.     

Combining information for prediction in linear regression

This article deals with the prediction problem in linear regression where the measurements are obtained using k different devices or collected from k different independent sources. For the case of k=2, a Graybill-Deal type combined estimtor for the regression parameters is shown to dominate the individual least squares estimators under the covariance criterion. Two predictors ŷ _c and ŷ _p are proposed. ŷ _c is based on a combined estimator of the regression coefficient vector, and ŷ _p is obtained by combining the individual predictors from different models. Prediction mean square errors of both predictors are derived. It is shown that the predictor ŷ _p is better than the individual predictors for k≥2 and the predictor ŷ _c is better than the individual predictors for k=2. Numerical comparison between ŷ _c and ŷ _p shows that the former is superior to the latter for the case k=2.     

回归分析法在经济预测中的应用浅析

回归分析法是在经济预测中常用的方法之一，它是在观察和分析经济发展的历史和现状的基础上，按照一定的方式建立反映其关系的数学模型，然后根据自变量在未来的变化来计算预测变量的变化，从而对未来的经济发展趋势进行预测。其关键是建立回归模型，并进行相关分析和结果预测。     

社会预测体制的生成与演变

预测活动是现代人类活动的基础,科学地预见未来与人类的命运休戚相关。该文在梳理预测体制形成的历史流变的基础上,着重探讨了现代预测体制的确立及其在领导体制中的重要地位,特别是现代预测体制中的国家预测系统已成为国家安全的重要依托之一。正是由于各国建立了日趋完善的预测体制,现代国际政治关系才得以形成并稳定下来。现代预测体制正朝着控制整个社会体制的方向发展。现代社会中所有机构的决策却越来越依赖于预测;社会体制的改革是预测体制行为新范式的灵魂。     

Political uncertainty,risk of Frexit and European sovereign spreads

Using data from a prediction market (crowd-based forecasts), we build a daily measure capturing the risk of Frexit related to the 2017 French presidential elections. We study how unexpected changes in this new measure of political uncertainty in France affect European sovereign spreads vis-à-vis Germany. We show that our uncertainty proxy drives not only the French sovereign spread but also the spreads of those EU countries deemed the most vulnerable to the risk of desegregation of the Euro Zone. These results suggest that specific political uncertainty affects short-term investor’s expectations and may outweigh other economic determinants of sovereign spreads shortly prior to high stake elections     

An empirical investigation of water consumption forecasting methods

Many regions on earth face daily limitations in the quantity and quality of the water resources available. As a result, it is necessary to implement reliable methodologies for water consumption forecasting that will enable the better management and planning of water resources. This research analyses, for the first time, a large database containing data from 2 million water meters in 274 unique postal codes, in one of the most densely populated areas of Europe, which faces issues of droughts and overconsumption in the hot summer months. Using the R programming language, we built and tested three alternative forecasting methodologies, employing univariate forecasting techniques including a machine-learning algorithm, with very promising results.     

个人投资者交易行为研究——来自台湾股市的证据

本文基于台湾股市数据,主要研究个人投资者的交易行为。参照Kaniel et al.(2008)构建了个人投资者交易不平衡性指标─净交易,以反映投资者股票交易的强度。采用这种交易不平衡性指标来构建投资组合研究个人投资者的交易行为。首先研究个人投资者交易和股票的收益之间的动态关系从而分析投资者的交易策略,然后研究个人投资者净交易的收益预测能力从而分析个人投资者交易的信息含量。本文研究发现:台湾股票市场的个人投资者采用负反馈的交易策略,并且个人投资者在交易中表现出很强的处置效应;个人投资者在交易中的信息含量不足;个人投资者交易中的盈利主要来自两个方面:过度反应和价格冲击。文章最后给出政策建议。     

对我国公共政策协调研究的思考

当前公共政策协调议题越来越受到关注。学术界关于公共政策不协调的现象、原因、影响、对策等方面已有一定的积累。有关政策协调的边界、理论借鉴、解释框架和实现路径等方面的研究有待进一步深化。     

基于RS和GIS的土地利用结构动态变化及发展预测研究--以南通市为例

在遥感技术（RS）与地理信息系统（GIS）技术支持下,通过对南通市区2003年、2005年、2007年三期中巴地球资源卫星CBERS遥感影像数据进行处理,并通过对处理后的图像进行非监督分类获得了南通市三期土地利用类型图和不同土地利用类型的面积数据,之后通过对三期土地利用类型数据进行叠加分析,得到了南通市区土地利用类型转移矩阵,计算了各种地类的变化率,并对未来南通市区土地利用变化情况做出了预测,结果表明：1.南通市土地变化总体呈现出建设用地持续快速增长,耕地显著减少的趋势;2.导致这种变化的直接诱因则是南通城市化进程加快,经济发展迅速,建筑用地正在不断的取代耕地和其他用地;3.如果以当前的变化模式稳定延续下去,在2012年后很短时间内南通市区建设用地面积将占全区总面积的50%以上,同时耕地面积会进一步大幅下降,土地非农化的趋势将更加明显。     

Investigating the performance of different estimation techniques for crop yield data analysis in crop insurance applications

We investigate the performance of the ordinary least squares (OLS)‐, M‐, MM‐, and the Theil–Sen (TS)‐estimator for crop yield data analysis in crop insurance applications using Monte Carlo simulations. More specifically, the performance is assessed with respect to trend estimation, prediction of future yield levels, and the estimation of expected indemnity payments. In agreement with earlier findings, other estimators are found to be superior to OLS in simple regression problems if yield distributions are outlier contaminated and heteroscedastic. While this conclusion is also valid for subsequent applications such as yield prediction and the estimation of expected indemnity payments, the difference between the considered estimators becomes less distinct. For these applications, we find particularly the M‐estimator to be a good compromise between high‐breakdown (very robust) estimators and the very efficient OLS‐estimator. Because no regression technique dominates all others in all applications and scenarios for error term distributions, our results underline that the choice of the estimation technique should be dependent on the purpose of the crop yield data analysis. However, alternative estimators such as M‐, MM‐, and TS‐estimator can reduce (and bound) the risk of unreliable or inefficient crop yield data analysis in crop insurance applications.