中国股票市场风险和收益风格效应的非参数检验

本文利用Kendall协同系数检验考察我国股票市场风险和收益的风格效应。通过实证研究首次发现各风格指数的收益率、总风险及指数特有风险均具有明显的分层结构,风格效应显著。对影响风险和收益的风格因素进行的分析表明:股票风险受规模因素的影响十分明显;而股票回报率受价值因素的影响比较显著,受规模因素的影响不明显。并进一步用Spearman相关系数考察了风险与收益之间的秩相关性。本文研究结果对资产配置和风险监管等问题具有参考价值。     

基于K-S检验与距离相关分析的网络借贷信用评价指标体系构建

网络借贷作为一种新型互联网金融模式,提升了金融资源使用效率,缓解了小企业融资难的困局。构建合理的网络借贷信用评价指标体系,从而对网络借贷的潜在风险及时甄别与预防,对互联网金融健康持续发展意义重大。本文根据K-S检验与距离相关分析相结合,筛选对借款客户违约状态甄别能力强的指标,建立了网络借贷信用评价指标体系,通过P2P网络借贷(peer to peer lending,个人对个人借贷)平台LendingClub交易数据进行实证研究,结果表明:不仅借款金额、借款利率等借款标的特征对借贷者违约具有显著相关性,借款者年龄等个人特征、借款者年收入等财务特征以及借款者违约次数等信用特征均对借贷者违约风险产生显著影响。投资者在出借资金时,往往青睐于已婚、年龄适中、具有一定工作经历、历史违约次数较少的借款人。因此,风险监管部门应构建网络借贷违约风险评估模型,对P2P平台进行风险监测,同时建立关键信息共享机制,融合多源数据,明确审查范围,实现P2P网络借贷行业健康有序发展。     

Hierarchies and entrepreneurship

We establish a correlation between the hierarchical structure of a firm and the likelihood of business creation among its former employees, using a sample of 16 million observations of Swedish workers and a novel proxy for hierarchies based on occupation data. Conditional on firm size and many other variables, employees in firms with more layers are less likely to enter entrepreneurship, to become self-employed, and to switch to another employer. The effects of layers are much stronger for business creation than for job-switching and they are stronger for entrepreneurship than for self-employment. We discuss two potential explanations for the distinctive hierarchy effect we find. Part of the effect could be to be due to preference sorting by employees, and part due to employees in firms with fewer layers having a broader range of skills. One test showing that the probability of entrepreneurship increases with their prior rank in an organization is consistent with ability sorting and inconsistent with preference sorting.     

Efficient rank tests for semiparametric competing risk models

We consider a semiparametric competing risk model given by k independent survival times. The paper offers an asymptotic treatment of tests for the semiparametric null hypothesis of equality of the underlying risks. It turns out that modified rank tests are asymptotically efficient for certain semiparametric submodels, where the baseline hazard is a nuisance parameter. In addition, the asymptotic relative efficiency of the present tests is derived. A comparison of asymptotic power functions can then be used to classify various tests proposed earlier in the literature. For instance a chi-square type test is efficient for proportional hazards. Data driven tests of likelihood ratio type are proposed for cones of alternatives. We will consider certain stochastically increasing alternatives as a special example. The paper shows how the concept of local asymptotic normality of Le Cam works for hazard oriented models.     

Determinacy in the Linear Model: Gauss to Bose and Koopmans

Gauss showed that least squares fails to produce a unique solution only when the problem is indeterminate. This note considers his argument and the notion of indeterminacy underlying it. It also relates the argument to twentieth-century discussions of estimability and identifiability.     

Ratio Analysis Using Rank Transformation

This paper presents an alternate method for transforming financial ratios. Ratios are ranked and scaled into a uniform distribution with boundaries between 0 and 1. Conceptually, we suggest that this method solves a number of methodological problems associated with ratios, including constrained choice of regression models, ratio outliers, negative ratios, and non-normal distributions. Scaled ranks of financial ratios are also conceptually appealing because they appear to capture comparative ordinal data about cross-sectional relationships between firms.The study empirically tests scaled rank transformations by examining the association of the transformations with stock returns. Results show that models using relative ranked accounting ratios have more explanatory and predictive power than untransformed, log-transformed and square-root transformed ratios.     

Two Types of Disagreement in Group Discussions of Japanese Undergraduates

In this study we investigated the nature of disagreement, which is a necessary component of a good discussion. We obtained 27 group discussion scenes by Japanese undergraduates that were evaluated by two ways: impression rating and ranking. As a result of factor analysis for the impression rating data, five factors were extracted: activeness, multidirection and unification of discussion, relationships of participants, development and sophistication of discussion, and sincerity of the participants, and each factor scores of each scene was simultaneously calculated. Each scene’s rank score was also calculated by relative comparisons. A significant positive correlation was found between the mean factor and the rank scores except for Factor 3 (relationships of participants). To consider the reason for the difference relating to Factor 3’s score, we scrutinized the discussion process of four scenes of the different patterns of the factor and rank scores. From the analysis of conversations, we suggested that this difference reflected ways of disagreement. By introducing a probative discourse tags for discussion (pDTD), we reasoned that the frequency of disagreement made Factor 3’s score negative and the absence of the second part of adjacency pairs made the rank score worse. The explicit speech and actions of blame such as emotional and aggressive expression, and neglect of treatment for the minor opinion made also the discussion unfair, but we think that these behaviors might erupt from the ground made by the accumulated implicit behaviors such as the absence of the second part. We finally concluded that the criticism type of disagreement increased the rank scores, and its censure type produced lower results, and the proper ways of disagreement in group discussions were discussed.     

子空间方法盲多用户检测技术分析与探索

着重分析了基于子空间跟踪的盲线性多用户检测算法 ,并对其内部算法模块进行了仿真比较 ,最后对算法性能改善方法提出了自己的新思路     

城镇居民消费过度敏感性的统计分析

本文在文献综述的基础上,指出了现有研究中的不足,即缺少不同收入阶层的消费过度敏感性的分析以及由于样本容量的不足导致模型拟合及预测能力不强。本文主要利用panel data模型分析了我国城镇不同收入阶层居民消费的过度敏感性,验证出各阶层都存在着过度敏感性,且过度敏感性的大小在各阶层中呈现倒"草帽"型分布。     

法律文件共治模式的生成逻辑与规范路径——基于四十年教育规范性文件的考察

行政机关或党政机关联合制发规范性文件是行政实践中的现实图景。通过对教育领域的实证考察发现,法律和规范性文件在不同时期呈现不同的互动模式,并在当前改革背景下形成了法律文件共同治理的格局。新时期法律文件共治模式既具有法律位阶理论和功能主义视角下的法理基础,也源于“文件治国”在社会政策变迁中的功能多元化需求,以及行政效能原则下的实践基础。法律文件共治模式在治理实践中的功能发挥,需要以厘清二者内容边界作为前提条件、以二者体系共存的相容性作为价值指引,以及以法律的立改废释与文件的清理备案作为程序保障。