高校跨学科创新团队知识互动程度评价研究

知识互动程度评价对改善高校跨学科创新团队知识互动具有重要意义。在界定高校跨学科创新团队知识互动及知识互动程度内涵的基础上，创新性地从知识互动深度、互动广度、互动时间3个维度建立知识互动程度评价指标体系。进一步地，采用三角模糊权重、熵权和模糊积分相结合的方法，构建知识互动程度评价模型。最后，选取一所高校跨学科创新团队进行实例分析，验证评价模型的可操作性，可为高校跨学科创新团队知识互动程度评价提供一个新视角。     

IT集成项目的风险评价与控制

本文就 IT集成项目的风险问题进行了系统研究和探讨 ,其内容包括 IT集成项目的特点、风险的产生与特征、预测和评价、防范和控制等。     

Moments of renewal shot-noise processes and their applications

In this paper, we study the family of renewal shot-noise processes. The Feynmann–Kac formula is obtained based on the piecewise deterministic Markov process theory and the martingale methodology. We then derive the Laplace transforms of the conditional moments and asymptotic moments of the processes. In general, by inverting the Laplace transforms, the asymptotic moments and the first conditional moments can be derived explicitly; however, other conditional moments may need to be estimated numerically. As an example, we develop a very efficient and general algorithm of Monte Carlo exact simulation for estimating the second conditional moments. The results can be then easily transformed to the counterparts of discounted aggregate claims for insurance applications, and we apply the first two conditional moments for the actuarial net premium calculation. Similarly, they can also be applied to credit risk and reliability modelling. Numerical examples with four distribution choices for interarrival times are provided to illustrate how the models can be implemented.     

湖南宏观经济模型与经济波动

针对湖南经济波动的剧烈程度高于全国这一事实,建立一个湖南经济波动的预警模型.同时以政府消费和出口为先决变量,以GDP、居民消费和投资为内生变量,利用3SLS法建立一个联立方程组作为湖南的宏观经济模型.模型分析表明,政府消费对GDP等重要变量的乘数效应较大,因而应加大对政府消费的调控.在此基础上,结合ARMA模型和宏观经济波动模型对2010年以前的GDP、消费和投资增长率进行预测,通过系统化分析方法量化以上变量的无警区间,结果表明湖南未来几年的GDP、消费和投资波动将趋于稳定.     

市场经济运行中的利益分配矛盾解析──以旧城改造为例

市场经济体制下的旧城改造是一项牵扯矛盾多而又复杂的社会工程,其中拆迁阶段的利益冲突尤为激烈.旧城改造意味着利益关系的重构,阐明了利益分配矛盾的成因,从制度、技术和实施三个层面提出了改良措施.     

城市滨水区更新的土地利用策略

通过分析城市滨水地区土地利用现存问题及更新改造的动力因素,结合宁波市甬江东岸旧工业区改造规划,探讨了城市滨水区更新的土地利用策略,主要包括建立完善的土地储备制度、选择合理的用地功能布局以及制定土地开发控制和引导法则等内容.     

旧城改造开发项目的容积率问题研究

随着我国城市化进程的加速推进,不断增长的城市人口与持续升级的功能需求,对现代城市的建设与发展提出了新的要求。旧城改造是提升城市形象和改善人民生活的有效手段。本文在阐述容积率相关概念的基础上,根据投入产出理论,提出了旧城改造容积率测算模型,分析了容积率与利润率之间的具体关系。旧城改造实施人员可据此提出适宜的旧城改造方案。最后,本文以重庆市某旧城改造地块为例,对其容积率进行了重新测算,提出相关规划改造方案。     

县级耕地质量等别年度更新评价研究——以南城县为例

本文将以南城县2013年土地利用变更调查数据为基础,对南城县近三年内增加或减少的耕地做耕地质量等别年度更新评价,并与2011年耕地质量等级成果补充完善成果进行对比分析2011-2013年南城县耕地质量变化趋势。     

Monetising the Classical Equations: a theory of circulation

The Classical Equations describe output and income in real terms.To use them to analyse aggregate demand, the transactions theydescribe must be ‘monetised’. A sum of money equalto the wage bill of the capital goods sector can be shown tobe necessary and sufficient to carry out all transactions, ina process of circulation which also defines an expression forvelocity. When money has intrinsic value, the quantity approachmay hold in the short run but, in the long run, money will beendogenous. In these conditions, the rate of interest will bedetermined by the supply and demand for reserves, but when moneyis purely nominal, only a minimum rate will be fixed, and therate of interest will have to be pegged. The Appendix developsthe Classical Equations and shows that they define an invariableunit of account.     

Reconciling sustainability, systems theory and discounting

Most definitions of sustainability imply that a system is to be maintained at a certain level, held within certain limits, into the indefinite future. Sustainability denies run-away growth, but it also avoids any decline or destruction. This sustainability path is hard to reconcile with the renewal cycle that can be observed in many natural systems developing according to their intrinsic mechanisms and in social systems responding to internal and external pressures. Systems are parts of hierarchies where systems of higher levels are made up of subsystems from lower levels. Renewal in components is an important factor of adaptation and evolution. If a system is sustained for too long, it borrows from the sustainability of a supersystem and rests upon lack of sustainability in subsystems. Therefore by sustaining certain systems beyond their renewal cycle, we decrease the sustainability of larger, higher-level systems. For example, Schumpeter's theory of creative destruction posits that in a capitalist economy, the collapse and renewal of firms and industries is necessary to sustain the vitality of the larger economic system. However, if the capitalist economic system relies on endless growth, then sustaining it for too long will inevitably borrow from the sustainability of the global ecosystem. This could prove catastrophic for humans and other species. To reconcile sustainability with hierarchy theory, we must decide which hierarchical level in a system we want to sustain indefinitely, and accept that lower level subsystems must have shorter life spans. In economic analysis, inter-temporal discount rates essentially tell us how long we should care about sustaining any given system. Economists distinguish between discount rates for individuals based on personal time preference, lower discount rates for firms based on the opportunity cost of capital, and even lower discount rates for society. For issues affecting even higher-level systems, such as global climate change, many economists question the suitability of discounting future values at all. We argue that to reconcile sustainability with inter-temporal discounting, discount rates should be determined by the hierarchical level of the system being analyzed.