Political stability and trade agreements: Evidence for ‘endgame FTAs’

This paper empirically examines the idea that Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) are more likely to be signed by governments playing ‘endgames’; that is, when governments are about to lose power. Two empirical strategies shed light on this hypothesis. One relies on events that increase the probability of political turnover, the other on term limits. I find that countries are more likely to sign FTAs after the unexpected exit of their leaders, when political instability is high. The key finding is partly confirmed in the term-limits strategy as governments are found to form more FTAs during their last term in office.     

我国四大城市住宅价格与租金的关系研究

近20年,我国城市住宅价格经历了大幅下跌与上涨,而同期租金逐年下降,房价与租金之间的关系令人关注。本文利用1993年第二季度至2010年第一季度的数据进行实证分析,结果表明北京、上海、广州和深圳的租金指数和房价指数之间不存在协整关系,说明住宅市场价格与租金不存在长期均衡关系,房价严重脱离了租金这一基本面的影响,不再遵循现值理论模型所揭示的两者之间的运行趋势,表明房价泡沫在长期积聚。为了预防市场泡沫破灭对经济体造成的严重冲击,政府应该严格监察与调控房地产市场。     

Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: A Panel Data Approach

We employ recently developed cross-sectionally robust panel data tests for unit roots and cointegration to find whether house prices reflect house related earnings. We use U.S. data for Metropolitan Statistical Areas, with house price measured by the weighted-repeated-sales index and cash-flows by market tenants’ rents. In our full sample period, an error-correction model is not appropriate, i.e. there is a bubble. We then combine overlapping 10-year periods, price–rent ratios, and the panel data tests to construct a bubble indicator. The indicator is high for the late 1980s, early 1990s and since the late 1990s. Finally, evidence based on panel data Granger causality tests suggests that house price changes are helpful in predicting changes in rents and vice versa. CERGE-EI is a joint workplace of the Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education, Charles University, and the Economics Institute of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic.     

Coalition governments in a model of parliamentary democracy

We analyse a model of coalition government in a parliamentary democracy where parties care both for ideology and perks from office, and examine how the magnitude of this tradeoff affects the nature of coalitions that form. It is shown that equilibrium coalitions can be minimal winning, minority or surplus and they may be ideologically disconnected. The types of coalitions that emerge depend upon the relative importance of rents from office and the distribution of party ideologies. Further, there is a non-monotonic relationship between ideological connectedness of coalitions and rents from office.     

人权语境下的穷人居住权审视

穷人的居住权,其实质是关于住房的制度安排能否取得利益表达和社会稳定间的平衡.基于"居住权是基本人权"命题时于穷人的生存权意义,必须切实解决穷人的居住这个最基本的民生问题.既不"经济"又不"适用"的经济适用房并不具备对于穷人应有的道德关怀,应着力构建真正适于穷人的廉租房机制.     

农地租约中的期限与租金及其相互关联性——理论分析与实证检验

农地租约中期限与租金的决定,存在互为因果的内生性问题。文章关注农地租约中的期限、租金及其相互关联性。可能的边际贡献在于：（1）将期限与租金的决定,视为流转双方博弈的结果,从而阐明租约选择过程及其决定机理;（2）实证分析表明,农地质量是重要的中间变量。在农地流转交易中,呈现“高质量-高租金-长期限”、“低质量-低租金-短期限”的农地质量与租约安排的匹配特征。     

我国四大城市住宅价格与租金的关系研究

近20年,我国城市住宅价格经历了大幅下跌与上涨,而同期租金逐年下降,房价与租金之间的关系令人关注。本文利用1993年第二季度至2010年第一季度的数据进行实证分析,结果表明北京、上海、广州和深圳的租金指数和房价指数之间不存在协整关系,说明住宅市场价格与租金不存在长期均衡关系,房价严重脱离了租金这一基本面的影响,不再遵循现值理论模型所揭示的两者之间的运行趋势,表明房价泡沫在长期积聚。为了预防市场泡沫破灭对经济体造成的严重冲击,政府应该严格监察与调控房地产市场。     

遏制高房价须釜底抽薪

土地批租、高额税费、银行贷款是我国住宅价格腾飞的三大动力。要使住宅价格恢复正常,必须采取釜底抽薪的对策。一是摒弃居者有其屋的小资产阶级幻想,选择以租为主的住宅消费模式,因为工资只包括房租,而不可能包括房价。二是房地产分体流通,租、价、税分流,用年租制代替批租制,用年税制代替批税制。三是政府做军、公、教人员的房东,有利于稳定我国的房价和房租。