Analyzing a panel of seasonal time series: Does seasonality in industrial production converge across Europe?

In this paper we consider deterministic seasonal variation in quarterly industrial production for several European countries, and we address the question whether this variation has become more similar across countries over time. Due to economic and institutional factors, one may expect convergence across business cycles. When these have similar characteristics as seasonal cycles, one may perhaps also find convergence in seasonality. To this aim, we propose a method that is based on treating the set of production series as a panel. By testing for the relevant parameter restrictions for moving window samples, we examine the hypothesis of convergence in deterministic seasonality while allowing for seasonal unit roots. Our main empirical finding is that there is no evidence for convergence in seasonality.     

Impacts of seasonal patterns of climate on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand: Evidence from Aruba

This study estimates the effect of seasonal patterns of pull and push climate elements (rainfall, temperature, wind, and cloud coverage) on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand from the United States (USA) and Venezuela to Aruba. The seasonal patterns were first isolated from the series using the Census X-12 decomposition method, after which the analysis included panel data unit root testing, panel data regression, and Euclidean distance calculation. The results show that both pull and push seasonal factors of climate were relevant in determining the seasonal variations in tourism demand from both countries. The study derives two theoretical propositions: (1) climate is a significant push and pull factor affecting tourism demand; and (2) tourism demand and climate are bounded by intertemporal climate constraints.     

Seasonal concentration of tourism demand: Decomposition analysis and marketing implications

This paper analyzes seasonality in the United Kingdom, specifically the English regions in relation to tourists' place of origin and main travel motivation. The method used is a decomposition of the Gini index, which provides relative marginal effects that facilitate the identification of market segments open to counter-seasonal marketing efforts. This method has been combined with a graphical multivariate technique (biplot), which groups segments according to their seasonality characteristics. Seasonal patterns associated with particular segments differ significantly when studied on a disaggregated basis. Therefore, an adequate level of disaggregation is essential in the design of counter-seasonal strategies. Although this study focuses on British destinations, this methodology could be used as a control and monitoring measure in the regional analysis of any destination, facilitating regular adjustment of regional tourism marketing campaigns to minimize seasonality effects, specifically by targeting the types of tourists less prone to seasonality.     

The impact of seasonality on tourism and hospitality operations in the alpine region of New South Wales,Australia

Despite the recognized importance of seasonality for tourism businesses, there has been a distinct lack of studies undertaken in the past that discuss the impact of seasonality on alpine accommodation resorts, and more specifically that focus on an Australian location. The main purpose of this study was to examine whether or not the Australian alpine accommodation providers and ski operations have been significantly impacted by the issue of seasonality and to determine more specifically, had there been industry pressure placed on them to become all season operations? For this study, a total of 15 semi-structured interviews were conducted with managers of hospitality businesses located in the sub-alpine region of Jindabyne, and nearby alpine areas of Perisher and Thredbo in New South Wales, Australia. Study results indicated that the majority of managers acknowledged the fact that there has been an increase in the number of summer visitors each year which has pressured them to make changes to their operations. They conceded that such activity has served to reinforce a ‘stand alone’ mindset which was still prevalent amongst the majority of the managers in the region.     

Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future

A variety of methods and ideas have been tried for electricity price forecasting (EPF) over the last 15 years, with varying degrees of success. This review article aims to explain the complexity of available solutions, their strengths and weaknesses, and the opportunities and threats that the forecasting tools offer or that may be encountered. The paper also looks ahead and speculates on the directions EPF will or should take in the next decade or so. In particular, it postulates the need for objective comparative EPF studies involving (i) the same datasets, (ii) the same robust error evaluation procedures, and (iii) statistical testing of the significance of one model’s outperformance of another.     

Seasonal Adjustment of Employment to Demand and Revenues in Tourist Hotels During Expansion and Stagnation

Abstract

The monthly distribution of employment in hotels is, presumably, strongly related to demand for hotel services and to the derived revenue. Analysis of the monthly distributions of these indicators at tourism hotels in Israel during the years 1992-1997 revealed two types of maladjustment. First, the amplitude of the distribution for bed-nights and revenues is much higher than the counterpart distribution for employment. Second, the distributions differ in their measure of skewness. While the employment distribution is negatively skewed towards the autumn months, the distributions of the revenues and more so that of the demand for bed-nights services, are positively skewed towards the spring. Hotel management seems to be more alert to reducing the employment maladjustment during years of stagnation than years of expansion. Several hypotheses are suggested in order to explain the maladjustment. A part of it is probably associated with the allocation of overtime working hours. Another portion seems to be related to the efforts made by hotel management to retain trained workers year round in return for their consent to work for low pay.     

Seasonal Trading and Lifestyle Motivation

ABSTRACT

This article explores relationships between tourism sea-sonality and the lifestyle motivations of small tourism businesses, fundamentally a supply-side perspective of seasonality. Seasonal trading decisions are subject to a number of influences, not all of which are in the operator's control. Drawing from exploratory research undertaken in Scotland, the article argues that for some operators, especially located in rural and peripheral destination areas, lifestyle enterprise can confer a range of benefits, some of which are afforded by operating the business on a seasonal basis. Moreover, seasonal trading was seen to assume a number of distinct roles, reflecting various characteristics of lifestyle operators. Accordingly, public policies that seek to promote seasonal extension based on the premise of local economic development or destination objectives are not necessarily destined to work. This is particularly pertinent if such policies do not recognise the wider supply-side dynamics of seasonal trading and fail to engage with the lifestyle aspirations of the operators themselves.     

Seasonality patterns in dry bulk shipping spot and time charter freight rates

This paper investigates the nature of seasonality (deterministic and/or stochastic) in dry bulk freight rates, and measures and compares it across freight rates of different vessel sizes (Capesize, Panamax and Handysize), contract duration (spot, 1-year and 3-year time charters) and market conditions (peaks and troughs). Although, there is no evidence of stochastic seasonality, deterministic seasonality in freight rates is found to be varying from −18.2% to 15.3% in individual months within a year. Spot rates for larger vessels exhibit higher seasonal fluctuations compared to smaller vessels, although differences in seasonal fluctuations between sectors are eliminated as the contract duration increases. Also, for each vessel size, the seasonality declines as the contract duration rises. Asymmetries in seasonal fluctuations in freight rates over different market conditions are attributed to the high and low elasticities of supply expected under the respective market conditions. The results have implications for tactical shipping operations such as timing of dry-docking, chartering strategies and switching between freight markets.     

Monthly wood supply behavior of associated forest owners in Austria—Insights from the analysis of a micro-econometric panel

This paper examines the wood supply from non-industrial private forest owners in Austria. The main novelty of this study is threefold. First, the underlying dataset is based on monthly wood supply. This enables an analysis of seasonal supply behavior, which is found to be different in relation to the size of the forestland. Second, it represents an original study with a dataset from a Central European country whose forest owners are apparently much more fragmented than their Scandinavian or North American counterparts. And third, the study introduces a windfall variable that effectively corrects for a market-relevant storm event. With respect to methodology, a random effects Tobit model is applied. Additionally, a Chamberlain-like term is included in the regression to deal with a possible bias generated through the correlation of regressors and unobserved heterogeneity.     

Empirical evidence on individual, group and shrinkage seasonal indices

This paper provides empirical evidence on forecasting seasonal demand using both individual and group seasonal indices methods. The findings show that the group seasonal indices methods outperform the individual seasonal indices method. This paper also offers empirical results from comparing two shrinkage methods with the group seasonal indices methods. The theoretical rules developed by the authors for choosing between group seasonal indices and individual seasonal indices produce more accurate forecasts than do published rules for choosing between shrinkage methods, when measured by the MSE, and are competitive when measured by the symmetric MAPE.