Evidence on the existence of speculative bubbles in farmland prices

We conduct tests for the contribution of speculative bubbles to farmland prices. These tests are carried out under the hypothesis that farmland investors rationally form expectations. The outcome of tests reported here allows us to infer whether farmland prices are determined by market fundamentals-discounted returns from the highest economic land use-or whether rumors about farmland price movements are self-fulfilling. The tests are stationarity and cointegration tests relating farmland prices to rents. The tests are carried out using data from three farm production regions-the Corn Belt, the Northern Plains, and the Lake States. In each region, we find little evidence to reject the hypothesis that market fundamentals determine farmland prices.     

Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks?

Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks? Or do they have the perverse effect of increasing the probability of a devaluation of the currency under attack? Drawing on evidence from a large sample of speculative attacks in developed and developing economies, this paper argues that the answer to both questions is ‘no’. In particular, this paper documents a striking lack of any systematic association whatsoever between interest rates and the outcome of speculative attacks. The lack of clear empirical evidence on the effects of high interest rates during speculative attacks mirrors the theoretical ambiguities on this issue.     

Speculative bubbles or market fundamentals? An investigation of US regional housing markets

This paper investigates the existence of speculative bubbles in the US national and 21 regional housing markets over three decades (1978–2015). A new method for real-time monitoring exuberance in housing markets is proposed. By taking changes in the macroeconomic conditions (such as interest rate, per-capita income, employment, and population growth) into consideration, the new method provides better control for housing market fundamentals and thereby it is expected to significantly reduce the chance of false positive identification. Compared with the method of Phillips et al. (2015a, 2015b), the new approach finds a dramatic reduction in the number of speculative housing markets and shorter bubble episodes in the US. It locates only one bubble episode in the early-to-mid 2000s over the whole sample period in the national housing market. At the regional level, it identifies two periods of speculation: late 1980s and early-to-mid 2000s. The early-to-mid 2000s bubble episode lasts longer and involves 16 metropolitan statistical areas.     

FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model

We develop an open-economy New Keynesian Model with foreign exchange (FX) intervention in the presence of a financial accelerator and shocks to risk appetite in international capital markets. We obtain closed-form solutions for optimal monetary and FX intervention policies assuming the central bank cannot commit to future policies, and we compare the solution to that under policy commitment. We show how FX intervention can help reduce the volatility of the exchange rate, of inflation, and of the output gap, thus mitigating welfare losses associated with shocks in the international capital markets. We also show that, when the financial accelerator is strong, there is a risk of indeterminacy (self-fulfilling currency and inflation movements) although FX intervention can reduce this risk and thus reinforce the credibility of the inflation targeting regime. Model simulations match well the impact of a VIX shock obtained by local projections on a panel of inflation targeting emerging markets.     

Portfolio constraints,differences in beliefs and bubbles

I propose an arbitrage-based theory of bubbles in economies with general portfolio constraints and differences in beliefs. I find that, in general, bubbles cannot exist unless the constraints restrict the demand for credit sufficiently to induce low interest rates. Speculation due to heterogeneous beliefs does not cause bubbles. Ruling out bubbles under asymmetric information requires stronger assumptions: the presence of some uninformed agents and mild portfolio restrictions (debt or borrowing constraints), or alternatively, the existence of some impatient and fully informed agents.     

Utilizing the access value of customers

Customers are critical resources for the success of any business, not only because they bring in sales and profits directly, but also because of their access value in a world that is becoming increasingly interconnected. However, the mechanisms by which the customer access value may be exploited and the implication for management has not been well understood. Access value can be defined as the worth of utilizing patrons for further marketing and sales of value-added or third party products. The access value, which mainly results from the aggregation of the customer base and customer data, is essentially a corporation's internalized asset. This article shows that the size of the customer base and the extent of engagement have a significant impact on the customer access value. To develop and gain the benefits of customer access value, traditional business models often need to be transformed: firms and platforms should provide free or subsidized products to attract people and then embed value-added products to make money. The success of the new business model depends on not only the right pricing and product strategies, but also an embedding strategy.     

A sectoral analysis of the financial instability hypothesis

Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) is applied to various North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industry groups, and it is found that some sectors develop much more closely in accordance with the FIH than others. Minsky categorized firms based on the relationship between cash flow and debt service requirements: hedge finance units, whose operating revenues are adequate to service current interest and principal on their debt; speculative finance units, which can meet interest payments but cannot pay down principal; and Ponzi finance units, which cannot meet current interest payments. The FIH is related to, as well as supportive of, Austrian Business Cycle (ABC) theory, because interest rates are negatively correlated with the proportion and market value of speculative firms in several sectors.     

浅谈黑客常用的攻击方法与防范措施

互联网发展至今,除了它表面的繁荣外,也出现了一些不好的现象,其中网络安全问题特别被人们看重。近年来出现了许多黑客软件,经常使用的获取口令、放置特洛伊木马程序、网络监听、寻找系统漏洞等九种攻击方法很容易对他人造成损害。为防范黑客攻击,必须加强安全防范体系建设,对互联网用户加强安全教育,牢固树立安全防范意识,在使用过程中,要坚持采取关闭不必要的服务、安装补丁程序、关闭无用的甚至有害的端口、删除Guest账号、限制不必要的用户数量、及时备份重要数据、使用加密机制传输数据等基本的防护手段。     

基于矿业监管博弈的激励约束机制研究

资源型城市地方政府在执行矿业监管权时，通常由于信息不对称及矿业政策执行力度范围限定与中央政府博弈。基于由此导致的矿业生产外部性，通过分析中央政府与地方政府各自的目标偏好和效益函数，利用经济博弈论和矩阵对策，试图寻求矿业监管存在问题的原因。文章尝试在利用行为经济学“前景理论”建模的基础上，借助贝叶斯理论分析，提出贝叶斯风险成本诱导机制，进而得出在该机制的激励约束下矿业监管倾向于帕累托有效。文章最后结合研究结论给出政策建议，为制定我国的能源资源开采政策提供了重要的理论参考。     

Speculative attacks to currency target zones: A market microstructure approach

This paper develops a simple optimization model to characterize the behaviour of market participants during currency attacks and tests it empirically. Specifically, we test for the determinants of the timing, magnitude and chance of success of an attack. The empirical part is carried out using Mexican data, as this market provides us with an appropriate target zone framework and with a very rich dataset. We find empirical support for a set of microeconomic determinants which include: daily order flow, inventory management, intra-day price volatility, and the forward intervention-price differential. Finally, we test for the role of central bank reserves in speculative attack dynamics.