A New Approach to Random Utility Modeling using the Dirichlet Multinomial Distribution

In this paper we introduce a new econometricapproach to analyzing recreational site choicedata, the Dirichlet multinomial model. Thismodel, which nests the standard conditionalmultinomial logit model, can accommodateover-dispersed data and may provide moreefficient estimators of coefficients andconsequent welfare measures than the standardconditional logit model, which is so widelyused in the Random Utility Model approach torecreation demand. We illustrate thisDirichlet approach using a data set of rockclimbers in Scotland, and study the impacts onper-trip consumers surplus of alternativemanagement strategies for popular rock climbingsites. Results show that the Dirichletmultinomial approach produces coefficient andwelfare estimates having smaller samplingvariability in this case. We also compareclassical welfare measures with their posteriorequivalents, which allow for welfare changes tobe dis-aggregated.     

Optimal portfolio choice in the bond market

We consider the Merton problem of optimal portfolio choice when the traded instruments are the set of zero-coupon bonds. Working within a Markovian Heath–Jarrow–Morton model of the interest rate term structure driven by an infinite-dimensional Wiener process, we give sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of an optimal trading strategy. When there is uniqueness, we provide a characterization of the optimal portfolio as a sum of mutual funds. Furthermore, we show that a Gauss–Markov random field model proposed by Kennedy [Math. Financ. 4, 247–258(1994)] can be treated in this framework, and explicitly calculate the optimal portfolio. We show that the optimal portfolio in this case can be identified with the discontinuities of a certain function of the market parameters.     

知识产权法“利益平衡说”之反思： 自然法与功利主义之比较

“利益平衡说”被认为是知识产权法之基本原则或基本精神,旨在平衡权利人个人利益与社会公共利益之冲突,并以此解释知识产权法的制度构成。依自然法理论,知识产权之正当性因其自然获得性,相关权利与限制是确定权利的正当边界,维护以个人权利为基础之社会契约。功利主义理论则认为知识产权保护是实现社会效用之必要工具,经由排他性权利及其限制来达至社会效用最大化。无论限制或保护权利均有可能产生对权利或社会效用的正面或负面作用。由此,利益平衡的二元价值目标论值得商榷。知识产权法的根本问题是以个人权利为导向还是以社会效用为终极价值之选择问题。     

采用PPP模式建设公租房是否可行？——基于效用理论视角的比较研究

从利益相关者的效用和福利的角度,构建PPP模式和公共管理模式建设公租房的比较模型,分别分析在信息对称情形下和信息不对称情形下的比较结果.研究发现:在信息对称情形下,PPP模式建设公租房所产生的福利永远不可能高于公共管理模式;然而更加贴近实际的是信息不对称情形,此情形下,政府的资金约束愈大,项目的风险愈大,采用PPP模式愈优.     

一个实用的同步时钟及病毒告警内存驻留程序

本文介绍的是一个实用的微机应用程序。它可以在不影响用户正常使用微机及运行程序的前提下,在文本或图形方式均能同步地在屏幕上显示时钟,并且具有时实病毒告警功能。本文通过该实用程序也讨论了内存驻留程序的编写技巧和具体实现办法。     

Saving under uncertainty: A bivariate non-expected utility approach

We adopt the multivariate non-expected utility approach proposed by Yaari [1986] to provide a characterization of the comparative statics effects of greater risk aversion and of mean-preserving increases in risk on saving and borrowing in the presence of income and interest rate risk.We show that in Yaari's model, it is possible to extend the applicability of the Diamond and Stiglitz [1974] and Kihlstrom and Mirman [1974] (DSKM) single-crossing property to establish a relationship between greater risk aversion and saving (or borrowing) on the basis of the individual's ordinal preferences as long as the two risks are independent. We also demonstrate that the comparative statics effects of a joint mean-preserving increase in random income and interest rate on saving and borrowing can be determined by an extension of the DSKM single-crossing property.     

CONTINUOUS PREFERENCE ORDERINGS REPRESENTABLE BY UTILITY FUNCTIONS

This paper surveys the conditions under which it is possible to represent a continuous preference ordering using utility functions. We start with a historical perspective on the notions of utility and preferences, continue by defining the mathematical concepts employed in this literature, and then list several key contributions to the topic of representability. These contributions concern both the preference orderings and the spaces where they are defined. For any continuous preference ordering, we show the need for separability and the sufficiency of connectedness and separability, or second countability, of the space where it is defined. We emphasize the need for separability by showing that in any nonseparable metric space, there are continuous preference orderings without utility representation. However, by reinforcing connectedness, we show that countably boundedness of the preference ordering is a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a (continuous) utility representation. Finally, we discuss the special case of strictly monotonic preferences.     

理性选择向非理性选择转化的行为分析

本文针对不确定条件下的人类选择行为提出一个新的可供研究的观点:人的非理性选择在很大程度上是由理性选择转化而来的。文章首先简要评说了早期行为经济学的动物实验和认知心理学,认为人的选择行为是理性和非理性的同构;继而,通过解析丹尼尔·卡尼曼等人创立的前景理论所蕴涵的理性向非理性选择转化的思想,构建了这种转化的抽象模型;最后,作为对本文分析观点的一种联系实际的论证,研究了金融市场中的非理性选择以说明这种转化现象的客观存在。本文的分析可视为对行为经济学非理性选择理论之深邃见解的一种挖掘。     

中国最优居民消费率的估算及变动机制分析

1978年以来,我国居民消费率的变动特征表现为长期波动下降。为判断居民消费率的运行情况,根据代表性家庭效用最大化估算出最优居民消费率。研究表明,1978-1990年,实际居民消费率与最优居民消费率基本吻合; 1991- 2000年,实际居民消费率平均低于最优居民消费率7.8个百分点;2001-2010年,实际居民消费率平均低于最优居民消费率18.3个百分点。对居民消费率偏低贡献率的分析表明,城镇居民消费率偏低是导致整体居民消费率偏低的主要原因。通过考察预期收入、利率和效用函数改变对最优居民消费率的影响,分析了居民消费率的变动机制。     

研究型购买者消费渠道转换模型研究

多渠道环境下,消费者试图通过增加信息搜索渠道数量,最终选择最为拟合自身需求的购买渠道。消费者特别是研究型购买者在产品既定的情况下会根据自身对消费渠道的感知价值决策是否采取渠道转换行为。本文通过文献回顾,提出感知价值的维度,并以其为自变量,根据期望效用理论设计研究型购买者的渠道转换模型,以及多渠道零售环境下的渠道策略。