Analysts' Forecasts and the Broker Relationship

Analysts' ability to forecast earnings per share has been the subject of considerable debate. A concern highlighted in previous research is the agency problem which may arise when analysts have a close working relationship with the firms for which they are providing forecasts. This paper provides evidence that this relationship does not improve the accuracy of the earnings forecasts, but stimulates optimistic forecasts. In addition, the paper examines whether firm size is a factor in forecast accuracy or bias.     

Market Failures in Real-Time Metering

Policies to promote real-time metering (RTM) require more than showing benefits from more timely responses to variations in cost. They require positive externalities to imply that too few meters would be installed through private transactions. RTM presents no systematic externalities when utilities must serve peak period users, and may present negative externalities under some conditions. Positive externalities are likely when electricity is rationed through blackouts. RTM may or may not increase welfare when peak period wholesale markets are not competitive; a prohibition on RTM might be appropriate in such situations even if metering itself were costless.     

Research notes and communications corporate restructuring and strategic change: The effect on diversification strategy and R & D intensity

In the 1980s a number of large corporations restructured their diversified businesses through divestitures. It is hypothesized that restructuring activity focused on firms at intermediate levels of diversification (e.g., related-linked) which have a mixture of related and unrelated business units. Results confirm this hypothesis which explains that such mixed corporate strategies create organizational and control inefficiencies in managing both related and unrelated types of business units. Restructured firms were also found to move towards two types of different internal capital markets (related and unrelated). Most restructuring firms moved toward lower levels of diversification (e.g., related-constrained), although some moved toward higher levels of diversification (e.g., unrelated business). Also, this study finds restructuring firms that changed their corporate strategy by reducing diversified scope increased their R&D intensity. Firms that restructured and increased their diversified scope decreased R&D intensity. This result suggested a partial substitution between diversification and R&D activity.     

论市场经济中的艺术收藏

在我国上市公司的重组与并购活动中 ,地方政府一直扮演着一个非常重要的角色 ,这是有其深刻的经济和历史原因的 ,本文就上述问题进行简单的介绍和分析。     

中国商业银行跨业兼营财险和基金之模拟分析

通过使用模拟合并的方法分析中国商业银行跨业兼营财险和基金的潜在风险和收益,研究结果表明商业银行跨业兼营财险和基金能增加银行的收益,并提高单位风险的报酬,同时能显著降低商业银行的破产概率;研究结果同时显示,合适的财险和基金业务资产比重对于达到最佳的跨业兼营效果是必不可少的.此外,对比研究发现商业银行同时跨业兼营财险和基金比商业银行单一跨业兼营财险或者基金能获得更大的风险分散收益,因此支持银行同时跨业兼营财险和基金.     

我国地区产业结构调整及其效益分析

改革开放以来,我国四大地带产业结构的变动趋势大致相同,但东部各产业的劳动生产率和对经济增长的促进作用要明显优于中、西部和东北.目前四大地带产业排序已由二一三转变为二三一,接下来应促使第一产业的发展与农产品加工工业的发展相互适应,才能使区域的经济增长达到最佳效益.同时,鉴于各地带二、三产业对经济增长促进作用的大小同各产业从业人员的劳动生产率成正比,地区产业结构的调整还应注意劳动生产率的提高.     

三洋电机公司重构案例--全球化进程中的重构

本文主要以定期的报告(如年报)、公开发表文章、公司手册等提供的事实、资料为依据,以公司重构理论为指导设计调研提纲对三洋电机进行案例研究。试图分析作为日本跨国公司的三洋电机围绕选择与集中、发掘新领域而进行全球业务调整、组织紧缩、财务重构的特点。     

OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE AND FIRM EXIT ROUTES

ABSTRACT

Our study presents empirical evidence about the role of ownership structure for firm exit probability by explicitly differentiating between distinct exit routes (bankruptcy and forced liquidation, voluntary liquidation, mergers and acquisitions – M&A, and removal from the court register). Based on the population of Slovenian firms in the 2006–2012 period and using multinomial probit, our findings support the predictions of agency theory. Ownership concentration, share of the largest owner, and the difference in shares between two largest owners all decrease the likelihood of exit for all studied exit routes but M&A. The magnitude of their impact is largest for exits, in which owners play a decisive role, i.e. voluntary liquidation and removal. The link between the number of primary owners and exit likelihood is U-shaped with the lowest exit probability for firms with around two owners.     

中国大城市空间的"多中心"重组

从介绍国际大城市在构建"多中心"空间结构方面的经验入手,对国际大城市的经验教训进行总结,并在借鉴国际经验的基础上,结合中国"多中心"空间结构成长的复杂环境,提出中国大城市进行"多中心"空间重组的五大规划策略.     

Two-settlement Systems for Electricity Markets under Network Uncertainty and Market Power

We analyze welfare and distributional properties of a two-settlement system consisting of a spot market over a two-node network and a single energy forward contract. We formulate and analyze several models which simulate joint dispatch of energy and transmission resources coordinated by a system operator. The spot market is subject to network uncertainty, which we model as a random capacity derating of an important transmission line. Using a duopoly model, we show that even for small probabilities of congestion (derating), forward trading may be substantially reduced, and the market power mitigating effect of forward markets (as shown in Allaz and Vila 1993) may be nullified to a great extent. There is a spot transmission charge reflecting transportation costs from location of generation to a designated hub whose price is the underlying for the forward contract. This alleviates some of the incentive problems associated with the forward market in which spot-market trading is residual. We find that the reduction in forward trading is due to the segregation of the markets in the constrained state, and the absence of natural incentives for generators to commit to more aggressive behavior in the spot market (the strategic substitutes effect). In our analysis, we find that the standard assumption of no-arbitrage across forward and spot markets leads to very little contract coverage, even for the case with no congestion. We present an alternative view of the market where limited intertemporal arbitrage enables temporal price discrimination by competing duopolists. In this framework, we assume that all of the demand shows up in the forward market (or that the market is cleared against an accurate forecast of the demand), and the forward price is determined using a market clearing condition.