Technical analysis as the representation of typical cognitive biases

The present research provides a justification for the popularity of the technical analysis. It finds that financial analysts firmly discriminate between two types of technical signals—those based on typical cognitive biases and “empty” signals that sound like a technical analysis but are without any connotation with psychological inclinations.At the same time that they treat them differently, different analysts rate these items very similarly. These results suggest that the popularity of technical analysis is associated with its relation to the typical cognitive biases of humans.     

Optimising a Probabilistic Model of the Development of Play in Soccer

We present a probabilistic model based on the one developed by Hernández Mendo and Anguera (Revista de Psicologíca Social, 16(1), 71–93, 2001). Here we have tried to break down the interaction contexts that the opposing teams are able to generate and transform during the game. We are aware that a given player or team does not produce consistent behaviour in similar situations. However, a degree of uncertainty is assumed to exist regarding whether the results obtained are a specific function of the analysis used. In order to carry out this research a category system which optimized that used in the previous model was developed. This system should enable the interaction between teams to be observed within the actual play of a soccer game. A lag sequential analysis was performed on the basis of a coding of the behavioural flow. After describing the behavioural patterns obtained a probabilistic model of the development of play in soccer is proposed.     

Experimental evidence of gender effects in arbitration decisions

The study investigates arbitrator gender and arbitrator-grievant gender effects on the decisions of 146 arbitrators rendered on a hypothetical sexual harassment case. Gender was not found to have a statistically significant effect on the decisions examined. However, other characteristics of the arbitrator—level of experience and level of education—were found to influence the arbitral decision.     

Exploring the boundaries of the framing effect: The moderating roles of disparate expected values and perceived costs of judgmental errors

Framing effects on retail store choice decisions were investigated in four experiments. Subjects preferred the store that guaranteed (a sure option) good prices (experiment 1), product availability (experiment 2), or a rebate (experiment 3) when consequences were framed in terms of gains; subjects preferred the risky option when consequences were framed in terms of losses. Consistent with fuzzy-trace theory, framing effects were reduced when the expected values of options were disparate in a direction that disfavored sure gain or probabilistic loss options (experiment 2) and when the perceived costs of committing a judgmental error were high (experiment 3). Experiment 4 shows that the moderating effects of disparate expected values and costs of judgment errors generalize to within-subject designs.     

Preference purification and the inner rational agent: a critique of the conventional wisdom of behavioural welfare economics

Neoclassical economics assumes that individuals have stable and context-independent preferences, and uses preference satisfaction as a normative criterion. By calling this assumption into question, behavioural findings cause fundamental problems for normative economics. A common response to these problems is to treat deviations from conventional rational choice theory as mistakes, and to try to reconstruct the preferences that individuals would have acted on, had they reasoned correctly. We argue that this preference purification approach implicitly uses a dualistic model of the human being, in which an inner rational agent is trapped in an outer psychological shell. This model is psychologically and philosophically problematic.     

Determinants hindering the intention of tourists to visit disaster-hit destinations

The purpose of this study is to propose and examine a new research model that is able to capture both the cognitive and affective components influencing potential tourists' behavioural intentions to visit a disaster-hit destination, which have negatively affected their perceived destination image. A survey of 357 participants provides strong support for the model. The results indicate that participants' perceptions of destination image are a strong predictor of their travel intentions. Factors relating to cognitive appraisals (e.g. perceived equipment risk, perceived natural risk and perceived social risk) as well as affective evaluations (e.g. perceived fear of ghosts, perceived unpleasantness, etc.) were found to be critical components that significantly, and negatively, influence potential tourists' perceptions of a destination image. Theoretical and practical implications of the results are discussed herein.     

Destination image,on-site experience and behavioural intentions: path analytic validation of a marketing model on domestic tourists

Despite its contribution to the national economy, domestic tourism is one of the most neglected and under-researched forms of tourism in the literature. This study tested an integrated path model examining the interrelationships between destination image, perceived quality, satisfaction and behavioural intentions, using domestic tourists who visited Eilat, Israel. The findings support the hierarchical relationships between image, quality, satisfaction and behavioural intentions. In addition, the affective image component was found to exert a far greater impact on the overall destination image than the cognitive component. The study establishes a better understanding of domestic tourists’ destination image and behavioural intention formulation. It also provides a number of implications for destination managers targeting the voluminous domestic segment.     

Smoking hot portfolios? Trading behavior,investment biases,and self-control failure

Self-control is a personality trait that explains undersaving and nonparticipation decisions. We show that self-control failure also affects trading behavior among individuals on capital markets. We use smoking as the most socially accepted example of self-control failure among 13,644 German brokerage clients and compare the trading behavior of 3,553 smokers and 10,091 nonsmokers. Smokers are associated with a higher portfolio turnover unexplained by financial sophistication or wealth effects. Self-control failure also exacerbates overconfidence, social contagion, sensation seeking, and attention grabbing. Overall, self-control failure is costly because it increases the gap between gross and net returns of smokers relative to nonsmokers.     

Small seeds for grand challenges—Exploring disregarded seeds of change in a foresight process for RTI policy

The recent turn in research, technology and innovation (RTI) policy towards challenge-led strategies is posing new demands to Foresight methodology. RTI Foresight practitioners need to complement their well developed set of technology oriented methods with equally sophisticated approaches tackling societal aspects of innovation. In this paper we aim to make a contribution to this requirement. Building on user innovation theory we argue that demand oriented RTI Foresight needs to systematically integrate voices and hypotheses from the fringes of the innovation system. In order to develop a sound approach for this we set out from well established Foresight theory on “weak signals” and “cognitive biases”. Adopting a constructivist stance towards such signals leads us to the need to set up a socially robust, diverse discourse on “seeds of change hypotheses”. We then outline a practical implementation of such a discourse in the context of the recent Foresight process of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) in Germany. We describe and discuss the experience of this Foresight process and suggest avenues for further development of the approach.     

The behavioural intentions of specialty coffee consumers in South Africa

More than 1.6 billion cups of coffee are consumed worldwide on a daily basis. South Africa is rapidly adapting to worldwide trends with speciality coffee consumption on the rise, with South Africa recently having been recognised as a key player in the speciality coffee industry. Emerging market trends in speciality coffee consumption have resulted in a number of changes in consumption patterns, preferences and consumer behaviour. The purpose of this study was to determine the behavioural intention of speciality coffee consumers in South Africa, using the Theory of Planned Behaviour. The data were gathered from a non‐probability sample of 327 respondents, who were selected through a self‐completion online questionnaire. The results indicate that males consume more speciality coffee than females. The majority of respondents consume speciality coffee more than once a day, and foam cappuccinos are consumed most regularly. The results of the stepwise multiple regression analysis demonstrate the utility of the Theory of Planned Behaviour as a conceptual framework for predicting the behavioural intention of speciality coffee consumers. The findings indicate that attitude, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control are important predictors of behavioural intention. Furthermore, perceived behavioural control is the most important factor influencing speciality coffee consumption, and the most influential of the direct measures of the Theory of Planned Behaviour. With the current rise in speciality coffee consumption among South Africans, the Theory of Planned Behaviour framework contributes to understanding those factors which influence regular speciality coffee consumption. It is recommended that marketers and practitioners adapt their offerings to appeal to the specific needs of the growing speciality coffee market in South Africa.