我国生猪保险现状分析

近年来,针对我国生猪市场出现的价格剧烈波动的情况,政府于2007年推出生猪保险措施。本文采取统计学方法,对主要生猪大省的生猪保险现状进行了深入的了解,参考各地的统计数据并结合生猪市场现状,运用供给—需求理论、成本—收益理论等方法,对生猪保险现状展开分析,得出养殖户面临的风险逐渐增大和生猪保险总量小、结构差异大、可操作性差、实施效率低、风险规避作用差、体系不完善以及养殖户对生猪保险认识不足的结论。同时,我们从制度、政策等方面提出了解决这些问题的方案。     

A Race for Long Horizon Bankruptcy Prediction

ABSTRACT

This study compares the accuracy and efficiency of five different estimation methods for predicting financial distress of small and medium-sized enterprises. We apply different methods for a large set of financial and non-financial variables, using filter and wrapper selection, to predict bankruptcy up to 10 years before the event in an open, European economy. Our findings show that logistic regression and neural networks are superior to other approaches. We document how the cost-return ratio considerably affects the location of optimal cut-off points and attainable profit in credit decisions. Once a loan provider selects a particular prediction model, an effort should be made to find the optimal cut-off score to maximize the efficiency of the technique. Indeed, this often involves determining several cut-off levels where the portfolio of products and services exhibits different cost-return characteristics.