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1.
    
Sectoral comovement accounts for a considerable share of the variance of aggregate variables. However, little is known about its time-varying aspects by now. In this article, a multivariate DCC- GARCH framework is employed to study dynamics of sectoral comovement across manufacturing sectors both in the United States and in Germany. To account for possible nonlinearities, asymmetric effects in conditional volatilities as well as in conditional correlations are being assessed. We find that comovement across sectors is not stable but shows irregular movements. Particularly, contractions tend to be more synchronized than expansions in manufacturing sector. Moreover, we examine the role of various aggregate factors for the fluctuations in conditional correlations. Our findings reveal that both the non-constant variability of common factors and the changes in the effects of these factors play role for the fluctuations in sectoral comovement.  相似文献   
2.
    
Young Europeans experience high unemployment rates, job instability, and late emancipation. Meanwhile, they do not support reforms weakening protection on long‐term contracts. In this paper, we suggest a possible rationale for such reform distaste. When the rental market is strongly regulated, landlords screen applicants with regard to their ability to pay the rent. Protecting regular jobs offers a second‐best technology to sort workers, thereby increasing the rental market size. We provide a model where nonemployed workers demand protected jobs despite unemployment and the share of short‐term jobs increases, whereas the individual risk of dismissal is unaffected. Our theory can be extended to alternative risks and markets involving correlated risks and commitment under imperfect information.  相似文献   
3.
本文认为:买方申请银行开立信用证是卖方履行交货义务的前提条件;当卖方未能按期申请开立信用证时,如构成重大违约,卖方可解除合同,如属轻微违约,卖方应首先规定宽限期让其履行开证义务,如买方仍不开证.卖方才有权解除合同;关于买方开证与其货款责任的关系,应坚持“有条件付款说”,在信用证有效期内买方的贷款责任暂时中止,如卖方未能利用信用证以取得货款,则应区别卖方对此是否有过错,适用不同的法律 规则。  相似文献   
4.
我国银行贷款违约损失率影响因素的实证分析   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
本文利用某国有商业银行的贷款数据资料,运用主成因子分析对贷款样本的LGD进行统计分析并确定影响因素的重要性及排序。本文结论为:影响我国商业银行贷款LGD的因素依次为企业的信用等级、贷款担保方式、企业的行业属性;企业规模、企业经济类型、贷款担保方式等因素对LGD的影响都很弱。此外,本文验证了PD和LGD之间存在一定的关系,并非相互独立。  相似文献   
5.
助学贷款制度是政府弥补资本市场失效、干预教育领域资源配置的重要形式。目前,其面临的关键问题是金融违约(贷款拖欠),这一问题将直接影响到助学贷款金融制度的可持续发展。本文从借款者个人效用最大化角度出发,构建了助学贷款的金融违约模型,分析了影响金融违约的各个因素指标,在此基础上,提出了化解学生助学贷款违约金融风险的对策。  相似文献   
6.
Valuing Mortgage Insurance Contracts in Emerging Market Economies   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
We develop a new option-based method for the valuation of mortgage insurance contracts in closed form in an economy where agents are risk neutral. While the proposed valuation method is general and can be used in any market, it may be particularly useful in emerging market economies where other existing methods may be either inappropriate or are too difficult to implement because of the lack of relevant data. As an application, we price a typical Serbian government-backed mortgage insurance contract.  相似文献   
7.
本文采用蒙特卡洛模拟方法,根据现金净额是否为负这一标准来判断房地产开发企业是否违约,在对企业的现金流进行随机模拟的基础上来计算企业的违约概率。压力测试的场景为房价下降,利率上升。压力传导途径为房价与利率变动导致企业销售收入变动,销售收入的改变导致企业的现金流量表发生变化。房价和利率对销售收入的冲击是随机的,企业的现金流也是随机的,本文通过随机模拟估算了企业的现金流为负的频率,以此作为企业违约的概率。压力测试表明,当房价下降幅度到达15%附近时,房地产开发商的违约概率开始急剧上升。  相似文献   
8.
    
This paper develops a two-dimensional structural framework for valuing credit default swaps and corporate bonds in the presence of default contagion. Modelling the values of related firms as correlated geometric Brownian motions with exponential default barriers, analytical formulae are obtained for both credit default swap spreads and corporate bond yields. The credit dependence structure is influenced by both a longer-term correlation structure as well as by the possibility of default contagion. In this way, the model is able to generate a diverse range of shapes for the term structure of credit spreads using realistic values for input parameters.  相似文献   
9.
We study the effect of the sovereign credit ratings on the economies of seven East Asian countries, applying panel vector autoregression (VAR). We find that rating has less effect than outlook of rating on the credit default swap (CDS) spreads, the stock indexes, and the GDP growth rates. Rating upgrade and positive outlook have stronger effects than rating downgrade and negative outlook, and the effects of positive outlook and rating are greater after the financial crisis. There is evidence of contagion in that the economic variables of a country seem to have been affected by the outlooks of the other countries.  相似文献   
10.
    
This paper presents a joint analysis of the term structure of credit default swap (CDS) spreads and the implied volatility surface for five European countries from 2007 to 2012, a sample period covering both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the European debt crisis. We analyze to which extent effective cross-hedges can be performed between the credit and equity derivatives markets during these two crises. We find that during a global crisis a breakdown of the relationship between credit risk and equity volatility may occur, jeopardizing any cross-hedging strategy, which happened during the GFC. This stands in sharp contrast to the more localized European debt crisis, during which this fundamental relationship was preserved despite turbulent market conditions for both the CDS and volatility markets.  相似文献   
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