THE DYNAMIC PROPERTIES OF ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS ON PRICE ADJUSTMENT IN NEW KEYNESIAN MODELS

This paper presents a classification of the different new Phillips curves existing in the literature as a set of choices based on three assumptions: the choice of the structure of price adjustments (Calvo or Taylor), the presence of backward indexation and the type of price contracts (fixed prices or predetermined prices). The paper suggests study of the dynamic properties of each specification, following different monetary shocks on the growth rate of the money stock. We develop the analytical form of the price dynamics, and we display graphics for the responses of prices, output and inflation. We show that the choice made for each of the three assumptions has a strong influence on the dynamic properties. Notably, the choice of the price structure, while often considered as unimportant, is indeed the most influential choice concerning the dynamic responses of output and inflation.     

The Output Effect of a Transition to Price Stability When Velocity Is Time Varying

This paper explores the effect of time‐varying velocity on output responses to policies for reducing/stopping inflation. We study a dynamic general equilibrium model with sticky prices in which we introduce time‐varying velocity. Specifically, we endogenize time‐varying velocity into the model developed by Ireland (1997) for analyzing optimal disinflation. The nonlinear solution method reveals that, depending on velocity, the “disinflationary boom” found by Ball (1994) may disappear even under perfect credibility and that early output losses may be much larger than previously thought. Indeed, we find that a gradual disinflation from a low inflation may even be undesirable.     

Opportunistic monetary policy: An alternative rationalization

This paper offers an alternative rationalization for opportunistic behaviour, i.e., a gradual disinflation strategy where policymakers react asymmetrically to supply shocks, opting to disinflate only in recessionary period. Specifically, we show that adaptive expectations combined with asymmetry in the Phillips curve of a specific sort together provide an optimizing justification for opportunism. However, the empirical basis for these conditions to be satisfied in the current low-inflation context of most OECD countries remains however to be established.     

Purchasing Power Parity in Three Transition Economies

This paper uses cointegration analysis on monthly data over April 1994-December 2000 to test the relevance theory of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for two advanced transition economies (Poland and the Czech Republic) and one lagging transition economy (Romania). PPP is not rejected between the lagging reformer and developed market economies, but is rejected between the advanced reformers and the developed economies. However, PPP is not rejected between the two advanced transition economies, though it is rejected between the lagging and advanced transition economies. The evolution of the real exchange rates over 1994-2000 suggest that a significant explanation for these findings is the central role of the exchange rate in the disinflation strategies of Poland and the Czech Republic in the early part of this period, in contrast to the managed float followed by Romania throughout the period.     

Varying monetary policy regimes: A vector autoregressive investigation

Recently, two stylized facts about the behavior of the U.S. economy have emerged: first, macroeconomic aggregates appear to be less volatile post-1984 than in the preceding 2 decades; second, monetary policy appears more responsive to inflationary pressures – and thereby more “stabilizing” – during the Volcker/Greenspan chairmanships relative to earlier regimes. Does a causal relationship exist between these two observations? In particular, has “better” policy by the Federal Reserve Board contributed significantly to the lessened volatility of the U.S. economy? This paper uses a structural vector autoregressive (VAR) specification to address these questions, examining the advantages and limitations of such an approach. In contrast with much of the existing research on these topics, I find that most of the quantitatively significant changes in volatility are attributed to breaks in the non-policy portion of the structural VAR, and not to the identified policy equation.     

Learning by Disinflating

Disinflationary episodes are a valuable source of information for economic agents trying to learn about the economy. In this paper, we are particularly interested in how policymakers can themselves learn by disinflating. The approach differs from the existing literature, which typically focuses on the learning of private agents during a disinflation. We build a model where both the policymaker and private agents learn, and ask what happens if the policymaker has to disinflate to satisfy a new central bank mandate specifying greater emphasis on inflation stabilization. In this case, our results show that inflation may fall dramatically before it gradually rises to its new long‐run level. The potential for inflation to undershoot its long‐run level during a disinflationary episode suggests that caution should be exercised when assessing the success of any change in the policymaker's mandate.     

Disinflation,switching nominal anchors and twin crises: The irish experience

This paper reviews the Irish disinflation of 1979-86 and the subsequent success in maintaining a low and stable average inflation rate. Joining the German-led EMS in 1979 broke a 153-year link with Sterling and hence is an example of a country switching nominal anchors in order to disinflate. Reducing inflation was made more difficult by a parallel fiscal crisis and the tension in maintaining competitiveness against diverging trading partners (the UK and continental Europe). Having paid the costs of disinflation and fiscal adjustment, Ireland has made a remarkable economic recovery in the last decade, combining rapid GDP and employment growth with an average annual inflation rate of only 2.4 percent.     

Central Bank Independence,Speed of Disinflation and the Sacrifice Ratio

Using a theoretical model in which the degree of central bank independence affects the degree of inflation persistence and therefore the speed of disinflation, this paper suggests that sacrifice ratios are lower when central bank independence is higher. Empirical tests, using estimates of sacrifice ratios based on disinflation episodes for 18 OECD countries during the 1960–90 period, show that this result also holds empirically. This finding seems to be consistent with the credibility hypothesis by pointing out that an independent central bank may produce a credibility bonus.     

Sectoral effects of disinflation: Evidence from India

This paper makes an attempt to measure sacrifice ratios for the farm and non-farm sector as disinflation policy is believed to have differential impact on these sectors. Using the non-parametric approach of Ball (1994), five disinflation episodes are identified for India over the period from 1950–51 to 2009–10. These disinflations are largely due to contractionary monetary policy pursued by the Reserve Bank of India. The estimates of the sacrifice ratio and the presence of persistence and hysteresis effects indicate that disinflationary monetary policy is more harmful to output growth in the non-farm sector. In contrast, the negative sacrifice ratio in the farm sector implies that there is output gain during disinflationary periods. This output gain in the farm sector seems to have been driven by those factors which are independent of contractionary monetary shocks. These evidences also suggest that use of aggregate time series data might produce errors in the measurement of sacrifice ratios.     

Uncertain recovery prospects in Russia

By mid-1996, restrictive fiscal and monetary policies have brought lower inflation and exchange rate stability to Russia. The mass privatization was an apparent success although it contributed to an unclear ownership structure and weak corporate governance. The production decline continues and the structure of the Russian economy has been deteriorating. The popular dissatisfaction with the drop in living standards is reflected by a deep split in society, despite Mr. Yeltsin's victory in the presidential elections. As in the recent past, the new government will continue with ‘stop-and-go’ reform policies, probably with a stronger accent on the protection of domestic producers, legal reforms and economic growth. Because of serious structural and institutional distortions, the Russian economy is more likely to stagnate than to grow strongly in the near future.