Periodic strategies in optimal execution with multiplicative price impact

We study the optimal execution problem with multiplicative price impact in algorithmic trading, when an agent holds an initial position of shares of a financial asset. The interselling decision times are modeled by the arrival times of a Poisson process. The criterion to be optimized consists in maximizing the expected net present value of the gains of the agent, and it is proved that an optimal strategy has a barrier form, depending only on the number of shares left and the level of the asset price.     

Change-point detection for expected shortfall in time series

Expected shortfall (ES) is a popular risk measure and plays an important role in risk and portfolio management. Recently, change-point detection of risk measures has been attracting much attention in finance. Based on the self-normalized CUSUM statistic in Fan, Glynn and Pelger (2018) and the Wild Binary Segmentation (WBS) algorithm in Fryzlewicz (2014), this paper proposes a variant WBS procedure to detect and estimate change points of ES in time series. The strengthened Schwarz information criterion is also introduced to determine the number of change points. Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted to assess the finite-sample performance of our variant WBS procedure about ES in time series. An empirical application is given to illustrate the usefulness of our procedure.     

把握基层管理者执行力提升的关节点

基层管理者的执行力大小直接关系到组织的成败得失,并反映了组织人力资源管理的绩效情况.基层管理者要提高执行力,必须明确目标并制定行动计划,充分认识本组织的资源优势并加以优化配置,协调好本组织与相关组织、上级组织和下级组织之间的关系,让员工拥有梦想,努力将"中游水平"整体提升.     

A Bayesian approach for more reliable tail risk forecasts

This paper demonstrates that existing quantile regression models used for jointly forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are sensitive to initial conditions. Given the importance of these measures in financial systems, this sensitivity is a critical issue. A new Bayesian quantile regression approach is proposed for estimating joint VaR and ES models. By treating the initial values as unknown parameters, sensitivity issues can be dealt with. Furthermore, new additive-type models are developed for the ES component that are more robust to initial conditions. A novel approach using the open-faced sandwich (OFS) method is proposed which improves uncertainty quantification in risk forecasts. Simulation and empirical results highlight the improvements in risk forecasts ensuing from the proposed methods.     

基于复合战略控制系统的战略执行力研究

从控制理论的角度对战略控制系统与战略执行力的关系、传统战略控制系统进行了分析,在此基础上构建了基于复合战略控制系统的战略执行流程,为提高战略执行力提供了一种新思路。     

Shortfall aversion

Shortfall aversion reflects the higher utility loss of spending cuts from a reference than the utility gain from similar spending increases. Inspired by Prospect Theory's loss aversion and the peak‐end rule, this paper posits a model of utility from spending scaled by past peak spending. In contrast to traditional models, which call for spending rates proportional to wealth, the optimal policy in this model implies a constant spending rate equal to the historical peak when wealth is relatively large. The spending rate increases when wealth reaches a model‐determined multiple of peak spending. In 1926–2015, shortfall‐averse spending is smooth and typically increasing.     

Semi-parametric dynamic asymmetric Laplace models for tail risk forecasting,incorporating realized measures

This paper extends the joint Value-at-Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) quantile regression model of Taylor (2019), by incorporating a realized measure to drive the tail risk dynamics, as a potentially more efficient driver than daily returns. Furthermore, we propose and test a new model for the dynamics of the ES component. Both a maximum likelihood and an adaptive Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method are employed for estimation, the properties of which are compared in a simulation study. The results favour the Bayesian approach, which is employed subsequently in a forecasting study of seven financial market indices. The proposed models are compared to a range of parametric, non-parametric and semi-parametric competitors, including GARCH, realized GARCH, the extreme value theory method and the joint VaR and ES models of Taylor (2019), in terms of the accuracy of one-day-ahead VaR and ES forecasts, over a long forecast sample period that includes the global financial crisis in 2007–2008. The results are favorable for the proposed models incorporating a realized measure, especially when employing the sub-sampled realized variance and the sub-sampled realized range.     

强化责任意识提升审计执行力

本文结合工作实践,从提升科级干部履职能力,有效执行能力,务实创新三个角度分别阐述审计干部强化责任意识的重要意义及有效途径。     

从执行力的角度探索留级生管理

随着高校不断扩招,学生生源质量明显下降,如何高效地管理留级生群体,是摆在所有高校面前亟待解决的问题。本文首先分析了留级生出现的原因,再从提高执行力的理论上探索了留级生管理的"三个转化过程",进一步深入阐述了在实践中将"三个转化过程"细化成日常留级生管理工作情况,最后,对留级生管理模式进行了思考。