MODELING SOVEREIGN RISKS: FROM A HYBRID MODEL TO THE GENERALIZED DENSITY APPROACH

Motivated by the European sovereign debt crisis, we propose a hybrid sovereign default model that combines an accessible part taking into account the evolution of the sovereign solvency and the impact of critical political events, and a totally inaccessible part for the idiosyncratic credit risk. We obtain closed‐form formulas for the probability that the default occurs at critical political dates in a Markovian setting. Moreover, we introduce a generalized density framework for the hybrid default time and deduce the compensator process of default. Finally, we apply the hybrid model and the generalized density to the valuation of sovereign bonds and explain the significant jumps in long‐term government bond yields during the sovereign crisis.     

Financial development,economic growth and convergence clubs

To study the role of financial development in economic growth, we apply an array of convergence tests designed to capture nonlinear transitional dynamics to real outputs per capita. Strong evidence of multiple convergence clubs is observed, implying that the clubs are formed based on the initial level of real output per capita and average growth rate. Our empirical results show that the stage of economic growth of each country plays an important role for the composition of the convergence clubs. Furthermore, financial development emerges to be a significant determinant, albeit plays differently in the economic growth of each convergence club.     

新时期高校教师职业道德滑坡成因分析——以物流专业为例

近年来,高校教师职业道德滑坡现象明显,是什么导致了这种局面-文章指出:高校职业道德研究不深入,职业道德教育抓得不严,社会不良风气不断侵蚀,高校学生素质整体下滑,教师引进把关不严,考评机制不合理等是主要原因。     

The effect of exchange rate changes on trade balances in the short and long run

Using generalized impulse response functions, this study tests for the trade J‐curve for three transitional central European countries – the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland – in their bilateral trade with respect to Germany. Our findings suggest that for each country there are some characteristics associated with a J‐curve effect: after a (real or nominal) depreciation the export‐to‐import ratio briefly drops to below its initial value within a few months and then rises to a long run equilibrium value higher than the initial one.     

Dynamic Panel Data Evidence on the Trade-Income Relation

This paper revisits the relationship between a country’s openness and its per capita income. Building on Frankel and Romer, it argues that a dynamic econometric specification similar to the ones used in empirical growth studies better fits the theoretical literature and also resolves some otherwise unresolved inconsistencies. The preferred econometric method is Blundell and Bond’s system-GMM estimator, which allows dealing with measurement error, weak instruments, and time-invariant country-specific effects. The findings confirm the existence of a strong effect of trade on income but fail to find evidence for trade as an independent factor of divergence. JEL no. F43, O40     

Inferential Causal Models: Integrating Quality & Quantity

In-depth data analysis plus statistical modeling can produce inferentialcausal models. Their creation thus combines aspects of analysis by close inspection,that is, reason analysis and cross-tabular analysis, with statistical analysis procedures,especially those that are special cases of the generalized linear model (McCullaghand Nelder, 1989; Agresti, 1996; Lindsey, 1997). This paper explores some of the roots of this combined method and suggests some new directions. An exercise clarifies some limitations of classic reason analysis by showing how the cross tabulation of variables with controls for test factors may produce better inferences. Then, given the cross tabulation of several variables, by explicating Coleman effect parameters, logistic regressions, and Poisson log-linear models, it shows how generalized linear models provide appropriate measures of effects and tests of statistical significance. Finally, to address a weakness of reason analysis, a case-control design is proposed and an example is developed.     

论质量道德建设

质量道德是调节人们质量行为的准则,可以起到抵制、反对、揭露、纠正损害质量的作用。本文分析了质量道德与一般道德的关系,并从心理学角度分析了质量道德的形成机制。     

解读会计信息产权

会计信息外部性的存在带来会计信息供求的冲突,解决此冲突的规则就是会计信息产权。会计信息产权需要界定才能发挥其应有的效能,会计信息产权的界定取决于对企业所有权分享、管制和道德等因素,企业所有权分享下的会计信息产权界定是初始的界定,无法完成初始界定时可采用管制方式进行强权界定,道德是会计信息产权界定不可缺少的因素。国企改革所滋生的各种问题的根源在于会计信息产权畸形性,欲抑制其畸形,正确处理国企所有权的分享问题的同时,建立“共同治理”的机制和“相机治理”机制是必不可少的。     

公司道德与会计职业责任

道德依存的基础是人在经济活动过程中形成的经济利益关系。约束这种关系的规范依个体存在方式的不同而有不同的道德规范。一是作为独立个体人应当遵循的社会公德,二是作为某个组织成员,代表组织应遵循的道德规范。它们分别应当是家庭美德、公司道德和职业道德。目前社会主义市场经济建设中的道德建设应当重视和加强公司道德建设。会计职业道德建设的缺陷是过分强调职业道德在整个道德体系中的作用而忽视了公司道德建设。     

理性的限度——素质教育漫谈之三

素质教育的任务之一是要引导民众从过于执著的感性追求的迷雾中走出来,在提高 理性观照层面的同时,也能够意识到理性的残缺之所在,并形成一种自我弥补的内在动力。在普 遍失落的理性当中,值得注意的是工具理性对认知理性的屏蔽,群体理性对个体理性的排斥,造 成理性的悬置和知与行的分离,并最终导致理性力量的丧失。因此,通过学与思,提升个体的认 知理性,由此而提升群体理性的层次,将成为当前素质教育的第一要义