Asymmetric effects of housing wealth on college enrolment

We investigate the impact of housing wealth, credit availability and financial distress on college enrolment decisions. We find that housing wealth is negatively related to enrolment in public schools and positively related to enrolment in private schools. This evidence suggests that, on average, students substituted away from private schools towards public institutions during the recent financial crisis.     

A Reconsideration of the Jumbo/Non-Jumbo Mortgage Rate Differential

Consistent with a series of recent papers, the interest-rate differential between mortgages eligible for purchase based on loan size by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and larger loans is estimated to be 22 basis points over the 1986–2000 period. This differential averaged 19 basis points for the 1996–2000 period. Other significant effects include: loans slightly above the conforming loan limit and originated late in a calendar year often have a lower rate that nearly fully anticipates their likely characterization as a non-jumbo loan after the conforming loan limit is indexed effective each January; loan-to-value ratios affect jumbo loan rates much more than they affect non-jumbo loan rates; loans located in non-metropolitan areas have a 3 basis point differential versus loans in metropolitan areas that is surprisingly small given the likely higher cost to service non-metropolitan loans and the higher degree of uncertainty about non-metropolitan collateral values; and estimated regional mortgage rate differentials have narrowed through time.     

Frictions, Heterogeneity and Optimality in Mortgage Modeling

The purpose of this article is to provide a unified framework for incorporating frictions into a theoretical options-pricing model (OPM) for mortgages. This article presents formulation for a frictions-adjustable mortgage model that integrates borrower heterogeneity while simultaneously preserving prepayment and default financial decisions. Our model demonstrates the flexibility of the OPM by simulating separate and concurrent effects of three categories of frictions on the mortgage and mortgage components. Researchers can use our example formulation to determine the effects of specific borrower characteristics on mortgage values without destroying the options theoretic framework.     

Multiperiod Loans,Occasionally Binding Constraints,and Monetary Policy: A Quantitative Evaluation

We introduce multiperiod mortgage loans, fixed interest rate, a lower bound constraint on newly granted loans, and a possibly slack collateral constraint, in an otherwise standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with housing. Our nonlinear estimation shows that all those features are important to understand the evolution of mortgage debt during the recent U.S. housing market boom and bust. The transmission of monetary policy becomes dependent on the housing cycle, with weaker effects when house prices are high or start falling sharply. Higher average loan duration makes monetary policy less effective, eventually leading to asymmetric responses to positive and negative monetary shocks.     

The pricing of adjustable rate mortgage contracts

This article analyzes the structure of ARM contracts and the pricing of their component features, based on the view of ARMs as a complex bundle. Unlike previous studies, which have generally relied on option-based simulation techniques, our analysis specifies a microeconomic model of the lender as a profit-maximizer which is then tested using firm-specific data. The empirical results, which are consistent with the microeconomic model, indicate that the lender acts as a profit-maximizing firm in pricing the features of the ARM contract. Furthermore, the results suggest that while the interest-rate cap parameters dominate in the pricing of ARMs, other features are also important. Thus, theoretical and empirical ARM pricing models should embrace other features of the contract besides the cap parameters.     

Termination of distressed residential mortgages: An empirical analysis

A sample of 209 distressed mortgages is used to analyze the terminations of distressed mortgages. An option-based model is compared to a traditional default model. Results show that the traditional model is statistically superior. However, the model's ability to identify a default is similar to that of the simpler option-based model. Alternative measures of borrower's equity are compared. Measuring borrower's equity using total debt more accurately explains default than using either the mortgage balance or the mortgage value.     

The Subprime Panic*

Understanding the ongoing credit crisis or panic requires understanding the designs of a number of interlinked securities, special purpose vehicles, and derivatives, all related to subprime mortgages. I describe the relevant securities, derivatives, and vehicles to show: (1) how the chain of interlinked securities was sensitive to house prices; (2) how asymmetric information was created via complexity; (3) how the risk was spread in an opaque way; and (4) how trade in the ABX indices (linked to subprime bonds) allowed information to be aggregated and revealed. These details are at the heart of the origin of the Panic of 2007. The events of the panic are described.     

美国住房反抵押贷款及引入我国可行性评析

住房反抵押贷款是重要金融创新,在发达国家变得越来越流行。它是居民以自有产权作为抵押,定期向金融机构取得的主要用于养老费用的贷款。反抵押贷款提高了住房的流动性,对提高老人生活质量有积极作用。从美国反抵押贷款发展的特点、存在问题来看,反抵押贷款业务在我国有一定的需求潜力。同时新业务在我国的市场必须正确定位,才能将潜在的需求转化为现实的市场。     

Subprime Lenders and Mortgage Market Completion

Without a subprime market, some borrowers by virtue of poor credit history, unstable income, and other characteristics are unable to qualify for a mortgage. With a subprime market, there is a more complete credit supply schedule with the market pricing for poorer credit quality in the mortgage rate. By completing the capital market, subprime lenders reduce borrowing constraints. The result is a social welfare gain. Low-credit applicants otherwise denied funding are able to qualify by paying higher interest rates in exchange for offering more equity or lower loan-to-value ratios. This prediction is consistent with the subprime applicants financing or refinancing their mortgages at relatively low loan-to-value ratios.     

Legal Restrictions in Personal Loan Markets

This study examines the pricing of personal loans in the form of second mortgages to determine whether state-specific default laws have an effect on the availability and cost of that debt. We examine the pricing of loans to higher risk borrowers and whether borrowers in states that limit lender ability to seek default remedies pay higher credit costs. Our results indicate that, for the most part, lenders rationally price loans to higher risk borrowers. However, when we focus on borrowers with low credit scores, the results indicate that mean actual loan rates are higher than those predicted by our model. The results also indicate that state-specific default laws have an effect on the price of credit. Finally, the results show that there is a greater degree of error in the pricing of second mortgage loans to borrowers with low credit scores than to borrowers with high credit scores.